Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 272319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO DUE TO A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE
THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 00N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 20W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK 1022
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. THIS LOW IS EXTENDING
ITS COLD FRONT TO THE W ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THEN REACHING
NE MEXICO...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS LOW OR ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO
THE SE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF EACH SIDE OF
THIS FRONT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WEAK LOW OVER THE W GULF
TO DISSIPATE. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW CUBA
THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AFFECTING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A MOIST
AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHICH
TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE
TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE
SLIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF IT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF THE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 28N. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF THE
AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST
OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BECOME STATIONARY THEN TRANSITION TO SHEAR
LINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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