Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030957
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 03/0900 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA WAS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
12.6N 104.7W. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 964 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED INCREASED TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO
115 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM S QUADRANT.
BLANCA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...THEN BLANCA
SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW. SWELLS
GENERATED BY BLANCA WILL REACH THE SW COAST OF MEXICO
TODAY...SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO
SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO FRI.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND
WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AT 03/0900 UTC...NEWLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 124.8W AND MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING COOLER
SEA SURFACE WATERS AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR ANDRES TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING
AND TAKING A TURN TO THE E-SE THU. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES
ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 07N ALONG 87W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AROUND 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
WAVE N OF 11N TO THE COAST AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM
08N-14N...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF NICARAGUA AND NW COSTA RICA.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA LATER IN THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N125W TO 10N133W.
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 360 NM S OF THE AXIS
W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA
OF FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WERE
CAPTURED BY THE 0648 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED TO THE N BY ANDRES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL PREVENT TRADE WINDS FROM EXCEEDING A FRESH
BREEZE THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS OVER 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE
WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL HAVE MERGED WITH THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
ANDRES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF LONG-PERIOD...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS
BLANKETED THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SOUTHWARD. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM ANDRES AND
BLANCA ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
6-8 FT RANGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING TO THE
SW ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA IS ALLOWING ONE LAST PULSE OF FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS...ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 7-
9 FT RANGE...SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EASTWARD.

$$
SCHAUER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.