Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...COLD DENSE AIR FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MAX WINDS TO
35-40 KT IN THE REGION. THE CARGO SHIP EVER DYNAMIC CALL SIGN
3FUB8 REPORTED 30 KT WINDS NEAR 13.6N 95.0W AT 1200 UTC...WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO MODEL WINDS...AND SEAS TO 19 FT...WHICH IS 6-7
FT HIGHER THAN WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN TODAY. WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND BELOW 20 KT BY FRI. NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8
FT WILL PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION AND REACH FROM
08N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 07N94W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N94W TO 05N122W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

1036 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N140W EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD EXTENDS
FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N117W TO 29N124W TO
31N137W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INDICATED N OF THE
FRONT BASED ON ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...PUSH S ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA FRI...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE SAT. SHORT PERIOD 12-14 FT
N SWELL WILL SWEEP N OF 28N BETWEEN 116W-125W TONIGHT AND FRI.

TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC W OF 120W REMAIN LIMITED
TO 15-20 KT OR LESS. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRES NE OF HAWAII AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 25N W OF 135W THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY LATE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATER
TODAY. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE GAP WINDS DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MAX WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH
30 KT OVERNIGHT AND GENERATE A PLUME OF 8-11 FT SEAS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE SOURCE REGION FRI MORNING...WITH 8-9 FT SWELL REACHING
TO 100W SAT. A WEAKER DIURNAL PULSE IS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL


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