Tropical Weather Discussion
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507
AXPZ20 KNHC 230225
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Aug 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 22.6N 134.0W at 0300
UTC, moving NNW at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts
to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
storm center. Kenneth will continue to weaken, likely becoming a
tropical depression by late Wednesday and a remnant low by
Thursday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center Forecast
Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the
High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2
for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1011 mb low pres
near 10N91W to 12N109W to 1011 mb low pres near 09N125W to
07N132W. The monsoon trough then resumes near 15N133W to beyond
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N
between 97W and 115W, within 210 nm S of the monsoon trough
between 110W and 122W and from 06N to 11N between 123W and 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California
through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing
at times along the trough north of 29N. The pressure gradient
between this elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging
W of the area will allow moderate NW winds off Baja California
through Friday evening, then decreasing to a gentle breeze
through Monday. Seas will remain between 3 and 5 ft during this
period. Increasing southwesterly winds to the south of the
monsoon trough may bring 6 to 9 ft swell to the offshore waters
south of 15N Saturday into Monday. Fresh to strong SW winds will
accompany the swell starting Sunday evening through Monday
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough
through Sunday while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S
of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area
beginning on Saturday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure west of northern Baja California near 31N125W will
weaken to a trough overnight, then persist over the waters W of
northern Baja Wednesday. High pressure centered near 34N143W
will tighten the pressure gradient over NW waters as weakening
tropical cyclone Kenneth moves northward. This will result in an
increase of seas over a large portion of the area N of 25N and W
of 135W through Thursday. Moderate to locally fresh NNE flow is
forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W.
Moderate to fresh southerly flow is forecast south of the
monsoon trough through Friday. By Saturday, models are
forecasting a slight intensification of the southerly flow south
of the monsoon trough east of 120W. This may build seas to 7 to
8 ft from about 05N to 15N, east of 120W Saturday through
Monday.

$$
Ramos



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