Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260253

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
052 UTC Mon Jun 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.


Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 16.4N 104.3W at 26/0300
UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
has increased to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 60 nm
S semicircles of Dora. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 101W and
106W. Dora is forecast to continue on a west-northwest track
while intensifying, reaching hurricane strength early Monday
before starting a weakening trend on Tuesday as the system moves
over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Swells
generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest
Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and
begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dora is expected
to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through
Monday. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details on the track and intensity
of Dora, and the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on marine impacts
of Dora.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 12N95W, then
resumes west of Dora at 13N105W to 09N120W to 08N130W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 07N between 81W and 88W, from 09N to 11N between 101W and
111W, and from 06N to 09N between 128W and 138W.



See Special Features for more information on Tropical Storm Dora.

Outside of the influence of Dora, a ridge dominates the offshore
forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the
Baja California, gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of
California, and light to gentle winds off the coast of southwest
Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of the Baja
California Peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 5-6
ft elsewhere. These conditions will prevail into the early part
of the week.


Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft
through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell is
expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands Monday night into Tuesday, building seas up to 10 ft
late on Tuesday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.


High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 31N125W, while a
surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure, located N of
the area near 36N132W to 27N136W. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are noted west of the trough. Light and variable winds
prevail elsewhere N of 20N W of 125W, with gentle to moderate
winds prevailing elsewhere, with the exception of an area of
moderate to fresh trades from 10N to 16N W of 130W. Seas in the 8
to 10 ft range are noted per altimeter data across the north
waters while an area of seas of 8 ft is seen in association with
the trade winds combined with southerly swell. These seas are
forecast to subside below 8 ft in about 24 hours.

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