Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


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