026
AXPZ20 KNHC 140911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W from 03N northward into
Guatemala, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the northern half of the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W from 03N to 16N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 15N between 96W and 104W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 03N to 19N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over the southern half of the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 13N between 126W and 137W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N130W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N130W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 105W and 114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of
California as troughing prevails over the Baja California
Peninsula, and gentle south of there. Slight seas are in the
Gulf, except higher near the entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico under
weak surface ridging. Moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will
occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high pressure
builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to
strong Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens. Farther
south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through
late week. Fresh to strong S to SE winds will then develop over
the northern Gulf of California early on Tue and continue through
midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert Southwest.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas
in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and South American
waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through late week as high
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to
fresh E winds will extend through the outer waters offshore of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh N winds may pulse in
the Gulf of Panama by midweek. A new S to SW swell will continue
to propagate through the South American waters through the
middle of this week, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and
Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1035 mb high pressure well north of the discussion waters near
43N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades are in the belt from
10N to 18N. Moderate NE winds are also in the NW corner with
mainly gentle winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail
across the waters south of 05N. Moderate seas in mixed swell
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this
week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. A new S to SW
swell will propagate through the southern waters over the next
several days, promoting rough seas south of 05N. A new N swell
may lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek.

$$
ERA