Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W OR ABOUT 140 MILES SW
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 330 MILES SE OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 0900 UTC SEP 19. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 315
DEG AT 07 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT.

CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150
NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WELL TO THE N OF CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF
22.5N107W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND MAY RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 09-10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...
THEN DIPS SW TO 09N92W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N98W...THEN W TO
11N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW TO 13N132W...THEN W TO BEYOND 13N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N82W TO 09N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF 08.5N138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO
25N120W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
28N137W ON SAT...WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SE TO NEAR
27N135W ON SAT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$
NELSON


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