Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300612 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION INCREASES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1030PM UPDATE... MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY BUMPING THEM UP WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. COUNTING ON CLOUD COVER REFORMING TONIGHT TO KEEP VALLEY FOG PATCHY IN NATURE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. DECREASED POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... LOOKS LIKE THE GLOBALS ARE TRENDING TOWARD WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT INTO E OH UNTIL IT PASSES. AS SUCH...THE FIRST HALF OF SAT NIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME ISO ACTIVITY AT BEST. THE WAVE IS POISED TO TREK ACROSS E OH BY MIDDAY ON SUN...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THRU AS IT PUSHES INTO PA. SUN STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED...PARTICULARLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING -SHRA. IT IS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WHERE QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE H85 FRONT. FOR TEMPS...THINK AREAS SE OF THE OH RIVER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SPIKE UP IN TEMPS AS THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREATING A BIT OF A TEMP GRADIENT WITH SE OH IN THE LOW 70S. MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK OFF A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AT 06Z...A 20 KNOT 925 MB WIND AND PATCHES OF CLOUDS AT 8 TO 12 THSD TRYING TO KEEP VALLEY FOG IN WV AND SW VA AT BAY. WHERE IT RAINED FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR IN LOCAL VALLEY FOG 08Z TO 11Z SATURDAY. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TRIES TO WORK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON... INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE TODAY. THINKING ANY CONVECTION THAT TIRES TO FORM TODAY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. CONECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS MAINLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT 15Z TODAY...THEN MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT SCT TO BKN AGL AFTER 22Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG IN WV AND SW VA MAY BE LESS IF MID DECK CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. VSBY WOULD DROP IF A CONVECTIVE CELL MOVES OVER AN AIRPORT SITE THIS AFTERNOON. .AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR IN CONVECTION SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING.
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&& RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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