Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161935 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 335 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE...AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN TO OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. HILL TOP LOCATIONS PROBABLY WONT GET AS COLD TONIGHT DUE TO NIGHTTIME INVERSION...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PUFFS OF WIND. KEPT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SWING. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 925 MB INCREASES ON SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS... BUT NO PRECIPITATION...FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS MAKE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE A TOUGH FORECAST THERE. THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE MENTIONING JUST 20 AND 30 POPS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH NO THUNDER...FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST...INTO FRIDAY NIGHT EAST. ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE COOLING AT 850 MBS INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE. THE LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER FROM GETTING TOO HIGH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF. CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-18KTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 16TH OF APRIL WAS TIED AT HUNTINGTON WV THIS MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...SL CLIMATE...KTB

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