Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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862 FXUS61 KRLX 200627 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 127 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Foggy this morning. Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system late Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized system drifts this way for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Monday... Dense fog along the Ohio river this morning - issued a Dense Fog Advisory due to the extent and intensity. Fog elsewhere, but likely not as widespread. Fog should begin to mix and burn off after daybreak. A warm, dry, and sunny day on tap with temperatures topping of near 70 F. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday... Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. Improving conditions on Wednesday. No cold air behind this system, so expect the very warm air to hold. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM Sunday... The very warm pattern to end the work week. showers and perhaps a few storms may fire along a developing warm front Thursday. Temps may soar well into the 70s on Friday in the warm sector, ahead of a potent cold front set to cross Friday night. I have continued the idea of thunder with the front. A significant cool down is expected over the weekend with high pressure building overhead, though still running above normal in the temperature department. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 AM Monday... Foggy with plenty of IFR overnight. VFR and mostly clear by 16Z. MVFR stratus in the northeast may inhibit fog formation there. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Eastern extent of LIFR is questionable. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 02/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY L H L M M M M L L H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L M L M M M M L M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M L L M H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M L L L L L L M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M L M H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L L M H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>011- 013-014-017-019. OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103- 105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.