Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241029 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 629 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crossing during the early morning, with gusty winds in the mountains and maybe an isolated shower. High pressure mid week. An organized system crosses late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday... Cold front currently just north of West Virginia across Southern PA. Although this front does not have much in the way of precipitation it is producing decent winds out ahead of it in the mountains. Have seen gusts this morning of 40 to 45 mph and this will likely last about another 3 to 4 hours. Then winds will decrease at daybreak as low level jet moves to our east. There may be a few gusts at the higher elevations that meet advisory criteria, but due to the isolated coverage and minimal impacts the winds would have in those areas, I decided to hold off on a wind advisory this morning. It is also possible that we may see an isolated shower with upslope northwest flow through early this afternoon with the front. The front exits by this afternoon with high pressure moving in. Skies will clear and with ridge building overhead and we should see winds decouple overnight in the valleys. This will make for good radiational cooling and frost will be possible overnight in sheltered valleys. Still not sure however if we will fog out first, so will hold off on issuing any frost headlines at this time, but one may be needed with the afternoon forecast package. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 AM Monday... High pressure builds overhead Monday night, when mostly clear skies and cold temperatures will allow for frost possible across the forecast area. Additional frost will be possible Tuesday night. It is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the sheltered mountain valleys. Winds will be around 5 mph from the north northwest. Most sections will see clearing through the day. A low pressure system move over the OH Valley and WV Thursday morning. Likely PoPs across the north and high chance across the rest of the area. PoPs gradually diminish Thursday night into Friday. Went closer to the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 323 AM Monday... High pressure takes control once again on Friday with dry conditions. Another low pressure system drives a cold front to the region by Sunday morning. Coded likely PoPs mainly north and Northeast mountains and high chance for the rest of the areal. Used a blend of models ensembles for temperatures and dewpoints through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 625 AM Monday... Low Level Wind Shear conditions continue to decrease and have left it out of the 12Z TAFs. Cold front will cross the region this afternoon. The front could also bring borderline MVFR ceilings across northern terminals. Conditions will improve to mostly clear skies just about everywhere by this evening as high pressure builds overhead. This will make for predominantly clear skies tonight and with most areas decoupling, we could see valley fog develop during the early morning hours tomorrow. For now I brought in IFR conditions only at EKN, but IFR to MVFR fog occur throughout valley locations. At this time, I am still not confident enough to bring IFR conditions at any other locations, but hint at it with MVFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today, Medium tonight with fog possible. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings with the front are possible today at northern sites. Still not certain on timing or coverage of fog tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.