Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020551 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 150 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM SUMMER LIKE AFTERNOON TODAY. STRONG COLD FRONT STREAKS ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1030 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO LIFT/BREAKUP TODAY LENDING TOWARDS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO LOW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SITUATED IN EASTERN OHIO. REGARDLESS...MOST STRATUS IS BREAKING/LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK... SO WE STILL MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE CURRENTLY CLOUDY PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA NEAR KENNA AND BUFFALO. A RETURN TO FOGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET ON THE WEATHER FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE THIS PERIOD AS L/W TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS FROM THE WRN CONUS TO THE ERN CONUS...DRIVING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MAIN FEATURE DOWN ON FRI BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HOURS. THIS MOVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS...HAVE ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE THUNDERSTORM FCST GIVEN 50 KTS MEAN MID LAYER FLOW...A GRANDE OF CAPE AND STRONGLY FORCED LIFT. LEAD S/W TROUGH OVER UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON LIFTS OUT...SECOND S/W TROUGH OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MAIN TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI NT AND SAT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY CLOSING OFF JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES FRI NT. THIS GIVES RISE TO COLDER SOLN FOR SAT...WITH AT LEAST SCHC POPS ACROSS THE N AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOT YET CODED...BUT THE VERY HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD SEE THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE UPCOMING 2014/2015 SEASON GIVEN H85 TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO -2C. BLENDED IN THE MET FOR LOWS THU NT AND HIGHS FRI...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THU NT AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FRI WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. BLENDED IN NAM / GFS MODEL DATA FOR FRI NT AND SATURDAY AS THE SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE CHARGES THROUGH. ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP SAT AND SAT NT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD THIS PERIOD AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W SLOWLY RETREATS. THIS RESULTS IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWED WPC IDEA OF CHANCE POPS MON INTO TUE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN THEREAFTER. BLENDED IN WPC TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FCST. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LAST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG...BURNING OFF 12Z TO 13Z. VFR WITH JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CU AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIN HIGH CIRRUS ABOVE. SOME PATCHES OF MID DECK AOA 10 THSD FT MAY ARRIVE 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE-S BEGINS TO INCREASE BY 06Z FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY AND CEILING IN FOG MAY OSCILLATE MORE THAN EXPECTED 06Z TO 12Z TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/02/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL IFR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT..LINGERING IN MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY...IN POST FRONTAL RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...JMV/JW SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...KTB

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