Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
182 FXUS61 KRLX 291829 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 203 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AIR LINGERS INTO TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE SATURDAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER YESTERDAYS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LINGERED INTO THE EVENING...PLUS THE LOCALIZED HAILERS...WE WELCOME THE DRIER AIR TODAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPED TO HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST FRIDAY IN EASTERN OHIO...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR. BEFORE WE LOOK OUT OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDOW...STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. NO REASON TO REMOVE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THINKING THE CIRRUS AND APPROACHING MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN EASTERN OHIO FROM THE HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS. FURTHER SOUTH...IN THE DRIER AIR...NO FOG TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO MID DECK. WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING N DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. MAIN CHANCE WAS TO TRY TO LOWER POPS FROM CRW ON SOUTH TOWARD WILLIAMSON AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS THE PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL LIFT SHIFTS NORTH. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH...FIGURING LOWER CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...WILL NOT REDUCE POPS LATE IN THE DAY FOR THOSE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER AOB 14 PCT. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED T IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST LIFT...BUT THINK HIGHER CHANCES ARE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING. THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LINGERING LOWER STRATUS SHOULD BE LIFTING IN EASTERN OHIO TO MOSTLY 2 THSD FT BKN 18Z TO 21Z. SOME LINGERING VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN HAZE UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS...NORTH OF KUNI. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE NORTH...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THINKING THE CIRRUS AND APPROACHING MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN EASTERN OHIO FROM THEHOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS. HAVE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING TO MID DECK AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE HTS VCNTY BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH 12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY THICKER FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCBK TO KEN CORRIDOR COULD VARY EITHER WAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.