Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230553 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1253 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front passes tonight with gusty showers followed by much colder temperatures for Tuesday. Cool and unsettled conditions continue Wednesday, then warmer to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 925 PM Monday... Will have to keep a close eye on storms developing to the west with the potential to tap strong low level winds. Otherwise, just minor tweaks to the forecast. As of 517 PM Monday... Will update the forecast to better handle the band of showers currently moving through the area. As of 238 PM Monday... Deep upper level low will pass to our northwest during the period. This will sponsor the passage of a strong cold front across our area tonight. Initial showers now entering our Kentucky counties should remain light and even diminish some as they head east. A better line of showers is expected to develop along the front and head eastward into our area overnight. Could even see an isolated rumble of thunder with these. We will have to watch the wind gust potential with this line of showers as strong winds will be in place just above the surface. However, did not hoist a wind advisory for now as low level inversion should keep strongest winds aloft, and advisories issued by MRX and RNK are for mountain wave potential which should not be a concern on our side of the CWA border. Rainfall amounts are expected to shake out in the one-quarter to one-half inch range, which we should be able to handle hydro-wise. A lull in the precip is expected behind the front Tuesday morning before the passage of the upper level trough axis sparks additional shower development during the afternoon on Tuesday. Temperatures will reach early highs Tuesday morning and then remain steady or slowly fall during the day. Rain showers will transition to snow showers over the higher terrain by late afternoon. The bigger issue on Tuesday will be gusty west- southwest winds which may approach advisory criteria, especially in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Monday... The dry slot behind the front fills in with low-level moisture as the upper low rotates through the area Tuesday Night. As a result of this and the passage of the upper level trough, there is an enhanced potential for accumulating snowfall in the northern lowlands and especially into the upslope areas of the mountains. New snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will amount to a dusting in the lowlands and around 2-3" in the mountain zones according to latest guidance. Gusty winds in the teens (lowlands) and up to the low 40`s mph will again be possible as the base of the trough moves through. A break in the action is forecast Wednesday with a weak ridge breaking otherwise troughing flow, however another upper level short wave is quick to follow that will again enhance precipitation potential. Any afternoon showers would be rain or a mix in the lowlands with light snow accumulations possible in the mountains late Wednesday through Thursday morning before drying out entirely. High pressure builds from the southwest, drying the region out and introducing warm air advection. Highs Thursday according to a model blend will reach into the 40`s in the lowlands and to around 30 in the higher elevations. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... Upper-level ridging increases and surface high pressure slides across the southern CONUS to round out the work week introducing warm air advection. Lowland temperatures Friday and Saturday will flirt with 60 F under mostly sunny skies (Friday) and continued WAA (Saturday) ahead of the next trough/surface low combination. At this time - a large amount of timing and depth uncertainty exists, so have kept the blend of operational guidance regarding PoP as well as temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Tuesday... Line of showers with isolated embedded thunder now crossing the Ohio River and pushing slowly to the east, while individual cells are moving more rapidly to the north northeast. The history of this line and the cells within it are very brief IFR visibilities in rain and winds generally to 35kts in gusts. The timing of these and their arrival are still challenging, even in the very near term of the aviation forecast, so some amendments may be necessary. Behind the line and cold frontal passage, winds veer to the west southwest with gusts in the 25-35kt range. Ceilings will come down into prevailing MVFR between 1500-2700ft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Frontal timing and restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 01/23/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/MC NEAR TERM...ABE/RPY SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...26

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