Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170759 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 359 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID OR LATE MORNING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. NEAR CALM FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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QUIET AND DRY WEATHER...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR THE LOWLANDS. PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/W RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW EACH DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND THUS WILL ONLY RESULT IN SOME FLAT STRATO-CU BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS JUST A BIT MORE FRIDAY VERSUS THURSDAY. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL SEE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EACH DAY...MORE ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE THU AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE TO AROUND 3KFT AND HIGHER. A BETTER SHOT AT SPRINKLES ARRIVES FOR MORE OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS IN GENERAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALSO CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. JUST A BIT MORE INSTABILITY PRESENT FRIDAY VERSUS THU AS WELL...HENCE THE SPRINKLES MENTION RATHER THAN DRIZZLE. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST GUIDANCE. DID WARM MAX TEMPS UPWARD BY 3-4 DEGREES PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY...925MB/850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT 18C-20C WITH PLENTY OF SUN IN THE LOWLANDS SUPPORT SFC TEMPS SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 70S. COULD EVEN SEE AN 80F READING OR TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST. WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...HELD BACK TEMPS HERE CLOSER TO PREV FCST. MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 50S AT THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS LIKE SNOWSHOE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE A WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF AMPLIFICATION AND COLD FRONT. TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY THIS FEATURE SO THAT SUNDAY MAY END UP STAYING DRY UNTIL LATE. DELAYED POPS AND CLOUDS AS A RESULT. ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS THRU AND THE TROF SETTLES IN...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL SHOT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 30S IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MOST PARTS OF THE CENTRAL WV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT 03Z. EXPECT MOST OF THESE CLOUDS TO STAY IN PLACE AND PERHAPS LOWER SOME TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CRW...EKN...AND BKW UNDER RADIATION FOG OR LOW STRATUS THROUGH 13Z. CONDITIONS COULD BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR AT OTHER PLACES DUE TO CLOUD COVER ABOVE 1000 FEET. ANY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY 13-14Z AND DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. LOW CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CLEAR INSTEAD OF LINGERING OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/17/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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