Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261106 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 706 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Col between systems gives way to southerly flow today, ahead of a cold front that will weaken as it crosses Thursday night. Weak front north this weekend. Stronger cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 AM Wednesday... Fog highly variable early this morning. Otherwise forecast on track. As of 330 AM Wednesday... Light southerly flow will develop today and increase a bit tonight, becoming a bit gusty on the ridges. This should be enough to prevent redevelopment of fog tonight. Some midday cu may form today, and stratocu will approach from the west toward dawn Thursday, as low level moisture increases well ahead of a cold front. Temperatures close to guidance and previous forecast, except higher on the ridges tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Thunderstorms will develop on Thursday as an upper level trough and surface cold front move into the region. Overall, strong thunderstorm threat looking a little better, with strong winds being the primary hazard as strong 60+kt 0-6km shear and moderate cape develops across the region. SPC has placed the western 2/3 of the cwa in a marginal risk for severe on Thursday. In addition, heavy downpours will also be a possibility with any thunderstorms, but moisture feed at this point doesnt look to be quite as impressive as in previous model runs. Cold Frontal boundary exits to the east of the CWA Thursday night, with drier, and warm weather taking hold for Friday as the frontal boundary gradually lifts back north as a warm front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Focus this weekend shifts to a developing and strengthening low pressure system across the Southern Plains. Warm frontal boundary across Ohio at the start of the period, with showers and thunderstorms developing, some of which could be heavy at times. Strong low pressure system will gradually move north and east into the midwest Sunday into Monday, gradually sweeping a cold front across the area on Monday. Strong moisture transport into the area with PW values rising to 1.2 inches or greater, well above normal, particularly for this time of year. In addition, it will be rather hot and humid for this time of year, with dew points rising into the 60s, and max temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for much of the lowlands. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 7 AM Wednesday... Fog was at or near all the airports and mainly along lowland valleys early this morning, and should mix out and dissipate by about 14Z. MVFR morning cu is possible as well today. Otherwise, VFR is forecast. Light southerly flow will develop today and become a bit gusty on the ridges tonight. This should be enough to preclude a repeat of the fog. Light west flow aloft this morning will become light to moderate south to southwest for this afternoon and tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium early this morning, then high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog and MVFR stratocu may vary this morning. Valley fog may occur overnight tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY L M L L M M H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.