Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281815 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 215 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbance moves through overnight. High pressure builds in for Wednesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NAM is showing precipitation along moisture field and vorticity maximum associated with upper level disturbance. Other models not in agreement with NAM but NAM is very good in these situations. Therefore included small POPs overnight in response to propagation of disturbance. High pressure builds in for Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry and warm to start the period...with high pressure in control. High will gradually move east on Thursday out ahead of an approaching front...with moisture creeping into the mountainous counties on return flow...creating a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cold front will sink south across the area Friday into Saturday...creating a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms...before stalling out across the area over the weekend...with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms...particularly across the south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Frontal boundary draped across mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys begins to lift northward Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Best chances for storms to fire will be in the southern part of the forecast area. Front will continue to linger over the region into Tuesday with more chances for showers and thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures seasonable into the 80s. Dew points bumping up near 70 in the Kanawha and Ohio river valleys. Exact placement of the front still hard to pin point...Euro showing a boundary more to the south of our area against the GFS. Highest chances for showers and storms throughout this part of the holiday weekend will be concentrated in the southern portions of the CWA, where heavy downpours are possible.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cumulus field will form across the area this afternoon. MVFR isolated showers associated with upper level disturbance this evening through tonight. Fog could develop across the southern mountains of WV should burn off by 13Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers overnight may or may not form. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms next weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL NEAR TERM...RPY/99 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...APR AVIATION...RPY/99

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