Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221037 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 537 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SYSTEM CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES IN TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM UPDATE... TREND CONTINUES TO LESSEN AFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST COAST SYSTEM TODAY. TWEAKED AND TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS POCAHONTAS AND E RANDOLPH. WILL LEAVE HEADLINE UP AS ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED...BUT BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THAT WILL EVEN OCCUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... PESKY MOISTURE FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST AS WELL AS WAA WILL COMBINE FOR LIGHT PRECIP MOVING UP THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...MAINLY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT E WITH W EXTENT OF LIGHT PRECIP TO WHERE MOST FALLS OVER POCAHONTAS AND E RANDOLPH CO. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRIEF ONSET OF FZRA WITH PSBL SLEET...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIQUID AND PULLING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLIGHT DELAY IN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...THINK WINTRY PRECIP MAY WILL BE BRIEF. LOOKING AT ABOUT 3 HR PERIOD BEGINNING LATE MORNING FOR THOSE CO. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH AID OF DEVELOPING SE DOWN SLOPE FLOW. SOME PEAKS OF SUN IS PSBL S OF I64 LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE SE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND WAA ALOFT CONTINUES...THINK THE RIDGES WILL SEE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS SHOULD HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES WITH POCKETS OF DZ PSBL OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASING ALONG AND W OF THE OH RIVER LATE TONIGHT FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL REALIZED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWLANDS. HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE FOR POCAHONTAS CO...ALTHOUGH WINDOW FOR FZRA IS RATHER SHORT BUT A TRACE IS ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR THE HEADLINE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NAM IN CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE SREF...INDICATING IT IS AN OUTLIER. WILL DISREGARD THE NAM. OTHER MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND STALLING ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND MOVES NORTHWARD WEST OF THE AREA...PUSHING A RAIN SHIELD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADJUST TIMING OF POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ONLY HAVE -6 C 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NOT THE BEST FOR UPSLOPE. STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED HOWEVER...SO WILL LEAVE SOME POPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS POINT...REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS HOWEVER ON THURSDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY POST FRONTAL. AREA DRIES OUT THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...CREATING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. TRENDED TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SLEET AND/OR FZRA IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS. LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KBKW THIS EVENING FOR IFR CIGS. THINK KEKN WILL ESCAPE NOT ONLY THE WINTRY PRECIP BUT POSSIBLY PRECIP ALL TOGETHER AND REMAIN VFR. DO HAVE VCSH CODED UP. ELSEWHERE JUST SOME 4 TO 6 THSD FT BASES EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY AMID DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. LOW CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ACCOMPANIED BY DRIZZLE TONIGHT. SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH KBKW GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IFR STRATUS DECK IN KBKW MAY VARY AND MAY NOT MATERIALIZE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NT INTO WED...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WED NT...AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ046. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30

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