Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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058 FXUS61 KRNK 151813 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 213 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will remain very warm and muggy with a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. Greatest concentration of storms today is expected along and east of the Blue Ridge where opportunity for localized flooding is possible due to the storms being very rain efficient. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour are possible, and this may lead to flooding if a storm lingers over an area for even a short amount of time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) More showers this afternoon and evening with potential for flash flooding and severe weather again 2) A Flood Watch is in effect from 2PM-Midnight for counties mainly east of the Blue Ridge. With increased CAPE as diurnal heating continues to intensify, convection has begun to kick off, especially along the ridgelines where orographic effects aid the initial instability. A light mean wind will cause most storms to drift almost aimlessly with a slow speed, and new storms will largely be outflow driven. PWATs today are abnormally high, much like recent afternoons as well, ranging from 1.5-2" where highest amounts are in the Piedmont. Rain showers and storms will be efficient rain producers, and rates in excess of 2"/hr would not be surprising. Inside of a slow moving cell, flash flooding could begin quickly, especially in urban areas or areas which have saturated soils (which is most of the forecast area east of the Blue Ridge). A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the afternoon through tonight to address these hydrologic concerns east of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures are generally above normal, but maximum temperatures this afternoon will be dependent upon the occurrence of storms and the length of time spent underneath those storms. Blocking insolation and cool downdrafts in the core of a cell will cause localized cooling. Wednesday`s forecast will effectively be a persistence forecast, as the stationary boundary to our north remains and the air mass overhead will be high in moisture and above normal in temperatures. Another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for high rain rates is likely.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 102 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. 2) Conditions will stay warm and humid throughout the remainder of this work week. An upper level ridge off the southeast coast will keep warm and humid conditions in the area through the period. High temperatures will range in the 80s across the mountains to upper 80s to lower 90s in the foothills and piedmont. Dew points will run in the mid 60s to lower 70s west of the Blue Ridge and in the low to mid 70s east. With the high humidity and light winds, temperatures will feel 3F-8F warmer than they actual are, especially in the afternoon. The combination of heat and moisture will also spark scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range. Spotty thunderstorms could produce 1-2 inches of rain in less than an hour. Some isolated slow-moving storms may also drop 3+ inches of rain in an hour or two. With a wet weather pattern the last several days, there will likely remain a Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding each day along and east of the Blue Ridge.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 124 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue every afternoon. 2) Little change in the air mass is anticipated during the weekend and into early next week. The upper ridge in the west Atlantic will drift to the east but will continue to keep its warm and humid influence on the region. The threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also continue into next week. A cold front is expected to approach the area early next week but may stall to the north.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday... THunderstorms have begun to form around the forecast area this afternoon. Expect this to continue into the afternoon, and the frequency of storms to increase. Showers and storms will last well into the evening and into the nighttime period tonight. During the daytime, expect cigs to remain above VFR levels, and the prevailing vsby to be high. Winds will be light. In the vicinity of storms, wind direction can change rapidly and strong gusts can occur with little notice. Showers with heavy rainfall will also be occurring, which can reduce vsby quickly. Wednesday morning will be similar to recent mornings. Lots of moisture near the surface will make for low cigs dropping into IFR/LIFR range, especially in the mountains. Patchy fog will also reduce vsby, mostly at RNK/BLF/LWB until sunshine during the day burns it off and helps elevate cigs back above 3kft (VFR). .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The overall pattern remains stagnant for the remainder of this week with a warm and humid air mass providing daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and an overnight potential for patchy fog. In general, conditions expected to be VFR for most of this week with the exceptions being the aforementioned afternoon storms and overnight fog which will result in tempo sub-vfr conditions.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ022>024-032>035- 043>047-058-059. NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...VFJ SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...PM/VFJ