Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 061732 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 132 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NC/VA COAST THIS MORNING NORTH TO PA/NJ BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY THEN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 916 AM EDT FRIDAY... THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND REACH THE JERSEY SHORE ON SATURDAY MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND LEANED LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE LAV GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH MORNING RADAR TRENDS AND SHAPED LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW SOLUTION. HAVE A GOOD DAY ! AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY... LOOKING AT MAINLY HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SYSTEM OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW EAST OF THE TIDEWATER OF VA WILL KEEP AN AXIS OF STEADIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH NW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS SHOULD ENHANCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WV MTNS AS WELL...WITH THE LOWER THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS PER MODELS/WPC SUGGEST ANOTHER ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE EAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF DEEPER CONVECTION CAN GET GOING...WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR LESS...WITH AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE OVER SE WV LATER TODAY. AS FAR AS FLOOD CONCERNS GO...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH...BUT GIVEN RAINFALL IN THE LOWER DAN RIVER BASIN...THE DAN AT SOUTH BOSTON WILL REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER BY DAWN TODAY...THEN DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. FLOOD WARNING ALREADY ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RANDOLPH ON THE ROANOKE RIVER AND A FEW SURROUNDING STREAMS AND RIVERS THRU THE DAY. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND UPPER LOW MOVE NORTHWARD MODELS ARE INDICATING SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT SITUATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT NOTHING OVER 35 MPH SHOULD OCCUR. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER RIDGES...THE WINDS WILL ADD A NIP IN THE AIR. SPEAKING OF WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER POCKET OF AIR MOVE EAST...SO ANY SNOW ACROSS THE NC HIGH COUNTRY INTO FAR SW VA SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING. SOME SUNSHINE COULD WORK INTO THE NC/VA FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST. TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER ERN PA/NJ. SHOULD BECOME DRIER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE WET GROUND...THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD EVENT. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWER TO MID 40S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 40S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY... THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF COOL AND WET WEATHER TO OUR REGION WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE THE KICKER THAT GETS THE CLOSED LOW MOVING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS OF THIS CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE IN OUR FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR WEST. LIMITED...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHAT REMAINS OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL START TO TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND ADVECT IN OUR WAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND SLIGHTLY MILDER AND BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A WAVY WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN THE LIS IS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. THEN...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CREATED POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO FORM UP IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AT PEAK HEATING. BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ROA/LYH/DAN WILL SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. OTHER LOCATIONS...CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR VICINITY SHOWERS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. FOG WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ELIMINATE THAT THREAT. LYH AND DAN APPEAR TO BE AT MOST THREAT BUT WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A BIT GUSTY AND PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH SUNSET BUT SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE. LYH SHOULD BE SPARED FROM THIS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MAINLY VFR INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHICH COULD BRING SUB VFR WEATHER TO THE AREA...MAINLY BCB/BLF/LWB. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE WITH THOSE OTHERWISE VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...JR/WP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.