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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 072036
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
336 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MILD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AT
WHICH TIME...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

RAIN CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW MAKES PROGRESS TO THE EAST.
THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE ABOVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SO THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT/ERODE IN TIME WHILE CLOUD COVER DECREASES
FROM WEST TO EAST. WE EXPECTED THE LAST OF THE RAIN TO END NEAR AND
EAST OF SOUTH BOSTON VA AROUND 900 PM. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BY 300 AM.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SO THAT MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WILL BE CALM
OR VERY LIGHT. THESE CALM WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES...AND A GENEROUS REGION OF FROZEN SLOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
THAT WHICH GUIDANCE OFFERS. ALSO...THIS COMBINATION WILL HELP SET
THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMATION...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
DENSE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OFFERING WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND A
WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AND MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MILD DAY. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE WINTRY GROUND COVER. IN GENERAL...WILL
HAVE HIGHS OF THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 205 PM EST FRIDAY...

NEXT PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT REACHING THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
INTO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND CONFLUENCE ALOFT...WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AT THIS POINT. WEAK LEE TROUGH OUT
EAST MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS THE NE TIER EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE PER LATEST NAM BUT QUITE IFFY. FORECAST PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST
THINGS WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NW MOUNTAINS ESPCLY IF PRECIP LINGERS A BIT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS WESTERN THIRD INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR
LOW QPF AND MAINLY DRY ELSW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND TROFFINESS TO THE
NORTH. FAST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING PERIODIC HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE MORE UPSLOPE NATURE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
WEST SLOPES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPS KNOCKED BACK A BIT SUNDAY UNDER EARLY CLOUDS
AND THE 85H COOL POCKET...THEN FINALLY REBOUNDING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY PER DOWNSLOPE...WARMING ALOFT AND SUNSHINE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

EXPECTING A BIG WARM UP AHEAD OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL
ARRIVE PERHAPS NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE DAY BEFORE THE LOW AND THE RAIN
ARRIVE...SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS MAY CROSS 70F NEXT TUESDAY. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE EVER IMPROVING CANADIAN...INDICATE A LOW CENTER
AROUND 995 MB WILL PASS JUST TO THE NW OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING A SWATH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
AHEAD OF IT...BEFORE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S DEFINITELY
GETTING CLOSER TO SPRING WHEN H85 TEMPS CAN FALL ABOUT 10C IN A 24HR
TIMEFRAME...AS VALUES ARE CLOSE TO -15C AT H85 THROUGH SE WEST VA BY
12Z/7A THURSDAY. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
WAVE WITH THIS VERY COLD AIR...UPSLOPE SNOWS GETTING UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SE WEST VA. NEXT FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS VERY
COLD...WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY IN THE TEENS AT THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
LACK OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING ALLOWS THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
TO DEPART AS QUICK AS IT ARRIVES...WITH A MORE TEMPERATE WEEKEND TO
FOLLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1136 AM EST FRIDAY...

PRECIP REMAINS STUCK IN A BAND ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM
WITH STILL SOME ONGOING WINTRY MIX IN SPOTS THAT SHOULD FINALLY
TRANSITION OVER TO JUST RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR WILL PERSIST AT KDAN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ELSW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRY AIR
BLEEDS IN AND THE STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL AWAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW KBLF/KLWB TO BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH KBCB/KROA
BECOMING VFR BY 21Z/4PM. KLYH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC -RA
WITH OVERALL MVFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL AFTER DARK.

CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR ALL SITES THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD
OF VFR LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER COMBO OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER/WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION LATE WITH MVFR...PERHAPS IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SITES WHERE MORE PRECIP OCCURRED. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWER
VSBYS THAN GUIDANCE AT KDAN/KLYH/KROA WHILE LEAVING FOG OUT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS MOST FORECAST DEWPOINTS APPEAR TOO LOW VS
SATURATION IN THE EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO WIDESPREAD VFR EARLY
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND.

POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSS THE AREA.

VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/RCS