Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 031929 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 329 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SE WV INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA TIL 8 AM SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SLOWER MOVING/REPEATING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVY FRONT REMAINS IN THE GENERAL AREA. THINK THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING BETTER RADAR TRENDS OF TAKING HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z...SO THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF US MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID 80S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S. THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS. ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY... STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CAROLINAS. ITS VERY SHALLOW SO EXPECT ANY FOG/LOWER CIGS TO START TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING IN. THE TAFS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HRRR/RAP THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MORE TOWARD THE GFSLAMP AFTERWARDS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLYING WEATHER IS NOT IDEAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WORSENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE. BEFORE THIS...TONED DOWN THUNDER THREAT IN THE TAFS AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS FAVORS SOME SCATTERED STORMS. FOR THIS KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR BLF TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORMS PER RADAR TRENDS FROM 19-21Z. MODELS START TO LIFT THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM US OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING INVOF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN WEST BY 14-15Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012. NC...NONE. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...RAB/WP

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