National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS73 KAPX 250938
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for North Fork Rx Burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
538 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Current cold temps in the upper teens and low 20s around Grayling
should begin to warm relatively quickly after sunrise with calm/weak
south winds around 5 mph or less in place. Light winds will allow
for lake breeze formation today, but is not expected to push into
central northern Michigan until later this evening -- and may be
weak enough at that point to have little/no noticeable impact on
wind speed and direction. Critical RHs (20-25 percent) will be
possible as soon as 12-1pm today and remain in place for a several
hour window into this evening. While not expected, RHs temporarily
mixing into the upper teens cannot be ruled out during mid to late
afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures look to warm into the mid 50s
this afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........20 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......6100-6300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (279.0).

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  54
RH..............20  21
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..2   2
20 ft wind gust.7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...6.1 6.3
Haines index....4   4
Transp wind dir.W   SW
Transp wind spd.5   6
Vrate kt-ft.....279 360
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........81 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the evening, then becoming light in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast 8
                    to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......5700-6100 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1300 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (32.0-424.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   4   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  53  51  46  42  38  35  33  32  31  30  30
RH..............21  23  27  34  39  48  54  58  61  69  75  79
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.8   8   8   15  15  15  9   9   9   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...6.1 5.7 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   12  10  10  8   8   9   9   9   9
Vrate kt-ft.....424 396 102 82  60  49  33  32  34  33  35  33
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........23 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 7 to 12 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph increasing to 21 to 25
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1300 ft AGL increasing to 2600-4100 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (34.0-532.0) increasing to good
                    (705.0) late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........2      5      12     24     39     53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............31     34     47     55     60     62
RH..............78     78     45     30     23     25
20 ft wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..5      5      12     14     14     15
20 ft wind gust.9      9      18     21     21     22
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    2600   3500   3800   4100
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..S 9    SE 9   SE 21  SE 22  SE 22  SE 24
Vrate kt-ft.....35     52     532    775    837    994
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Jennifer Hansen
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412328.0/APX
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hansenj4@michigan.gov