251
AXNT20 KNHC 090533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 07N10W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 01N50W. Scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ mainly W of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across
central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing
light to gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf E of 87W and
moderate to fresh SE winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2
to 4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to 6 west of 88W. No significant
convection is occurring in the basin, but haze due to agricultural
fires in SE Mexico continues to restrict visibility across the
western Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE winds will prevail
across much of the Gulf through Thu night ahead of a cold front.
The front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf
Fri and will move across most of the basin through Fri night. The
front will then slow down and weaken further as extends from
South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will follow the front through Sat night. Haze
due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico persists in the
western Gulf. Patchy fog is possible along the northern Gulf coast
overnight and into the early morning hours today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western
Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean.
The upper trough will continue to move farther northeast of the
area through Thu night, with atmospheric conditions stabilizing in
its wake. Abundant tropical moisture remains prevalent just east
of the NE Caribbean. Persistent daily rainfall across the Greater
Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for the past several days has
left soils at or near saturation, and river levels high across
this region. Please see local weather advisories for specific
information on hazardous local conditions.

The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and
extends its ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern is
producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central
Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds
prevail across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas have built to 4
to 6 ft. The remainder of the basin is under gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure centered SE of Bermuda will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-
central and SE Caribbean into the start of next week. Meanwhile,
expect pulses of fresh to strong E winds at night across the Gulf
of Honduras through the weekend due to the pressure gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic continues to be dominated by a broad ridge
anchored on a weak high center of 1021 mb, analyzed near 28N51W. A
pair of troughs are located along 58W and 65W. Scattered showers
are noted along the trough near 58W, with moderate to fresh winds
noted east of the trough between 53W-58W. To the east, the
remnants of a front are analyzed as a trough, extending from
31N23W to 22N30W.

Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin N of
20N, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 20N.
Rough seas prevail in the periphery of the high pressure center
mainly N of 18N between 25W-60W, and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, for most of the basin, winds will
diminish tonight into Thu as the high pressure shifts E. However,
as a cold front approaches the US East Coast, fresh to strong
winds will develop off northeast Florida tonight through Fri
night. The front will move across Florida late Fri night through
Sat, bringing moderate to fresh winds behind it. The front will
weaken late in the weekend as it moves east of 65W.

$$
ERA