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000
FXUS62 KCHS 252319
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
719 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will drop south of the area tonight. High
pressure will then build back into the region through the early
part of next week. A weak cold front could approach the area
around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Satellite and radar imagery show that the
sea breeze has pushed about halfway through the forecast area
and that diurnal cumulus are dissipating as we start to lose
surface heating. Overnight, high pressure will strengthen and
become centered over New England and increasingly ridge down the
east side of the Appalachians. The forecast is dry and the main
forecast challenge will be cloud cover. Model guidance depicts
area of area low clouds developing upstream of the area across
the Pee Dee region and advecting in within the arriving east-
northeast flow. For the public forecast this will have virtually
no sensible impact and is more notable for aviation interests.
Lows are forecast to range from the mid 50s inland to the low
60s along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aloft, a large omega block will set up with amplifying troughs
over the Western Atlantic and Western U.S. A ridge axis will
settle over the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern favors quiet
weather with little to no forcing. An isolated shower is
possible mainly Friday along the southeast Georgia coast or far
inland, where weak llvl convergence and presence of mid-level
moisture co-exist. However, no mentionable POPs have been
included in the forecast due to dry lower levels. Otherwise
partly cloudy skies will prevail nearly each day.

High temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal,
generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day through the
weekend. Lows both Friday and Saturday night will range from the
upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The pattern remains largely unchanged into early next week with
the omega block and deep high pressure in place. This favors
increasing temperatures and virtually zero rain chances Monday
and Tuesday. The upper ridge axis will begin to shift offshore
Tuesday as a weakening trough and accompanying weak cold front
moves toward the eastern U.S. The front will be positioned
inland late Tuesday/early Wednesday, however guidance depicts a
weak or stalled boundary at that point. Showers will remain
dependent on how quickly the upper trough driving the front
lifts north. The forecast currently mentions slight chance POPs
Wednesday afternoon which are limited to the inland locations.
Temperatures will start the period in the low 80s and will rise
to the upper 80s/near 90F by the middle of the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 00z Saturday. However, there are some hints in model
guidance that there will be a chance for a brief period of MVFR
ceilings at KCHS and KJZI starting late tonight. An area of
cloud with bases around 2,500-3,500 ft are expected to advect in
from the northeast. The main time period is roughly from around
09-14z when VFR or MVFR ceilings could occur. For now we have
introduced VFR ceilings but future TAF issuances could need to
consider TEMPO or prevailing MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions Friday with breezy east to east-southeasterly flow.
Frequent gusts up to around 20 knots are expected.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Surface high pressure will build across the eastern
Great Lakes and down into the southeast. Easterly winds will
slowly increase overnight in response, particularly across the
South Carolina coastal waters. Speeds will average 10 kt from
Edisto Beach and points south with 10-15 kt over the South
Santee-Edisto Beach out 20 NM leg. Seas will average 2-4 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: Winds will shift NE Friday and then out
of the east Saturday as high pressure builds from the north.
Brief surge will bring winds to the 15-20 kt range Friday
afternoon/evening. Seas in turn will build to 3-5 ft across the
nearshore waters out 20 nm and 5-6 feet across the outer Georgia
waters from 20-60 nm. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed
for the offshore Georgia waters overnight Friday into Saturday.
Winds around 10 kt or less will veer more southerly, and seas
will decrease to 2- 4 ft Monday into Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Persistent onshore flow combined with moderate
swell energy will enhance the rip current risk this weekend.
There is currently a Moderate risk of rip currents for all area
beaches Saturday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is undergoing electrical maintenance and is
tentatively scheduled to return to service April 26th.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...BSH/BRM
MARINE...Adam/BRM