827
FXUS61 KILN 101802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
202 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky
cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure
center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the
Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on
Saturday. A line of showers are expected with it`s passage, with
the better coverage and strength found in the northern CWA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Light showers have exited CWA and are expected to remain that
way. A few models are hinting that they may redevelop over far
southeast and Hocking Hills area, but this has been left out of
the forecast at this time. If they occur, they`ll be light and
an update will be sent to account for them. Temperature forecast
is in line with observed values, so no changes were made here.

Some scattered cloud cover will be found over the northwest half
of the CWA for today, with decreasing cloud cover in the
southeastern half, becoming generally clear later this
afternoon.

It will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Next short wave in active northwest flow will approach the
region late tonight and move across the area on Saturday,
deepening as it does. Surface low associated with this will stay
well north of the area, but a well defined trough (not really a
cold front as it will be warmer once this passes) extending
from the parent low will cross the area. A band of showers,
possibly with some embedded thunder, will occur just ahead of
this trough, developing southward as the entire system moves
east.

Will once again see an improvement in sky condition once this
system passes. But cannot rule out some additional isolated to
scattered showers or thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon,
generally in central Ohio where it will be a bit unstable due
to the juxtaposition of cooler temperatures aloft and surface
heating.

It will be a cool night with most places falling into the mid to
upper 40s. But some warming will occur on Saturday with highs
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure tracking across Tennessee will provide dry weather
Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front developing to the northwest
will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms that may move in
Monday afternoon. Potent low pressure moving up the boundary from
the southwest is forecast to bring numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Lingering moisture to the southeast
may allow a few showers on Wednesday and Thursday.

Highs Sunday are expected to reach the low and mid 70s in the
circulation around high pressure, with mid and upper 70s forecast
for Monday in the increasing southwest flow ahead of the cold front.
A retreat to the upper 60s to mid 70s is indicated for Tuesday
behind the front, before temperatures rise through the 70s Wednesday
and the mid 70s to around 80 on Thursday under renewed warm
advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Primary concern for aviation interests through the next 24 hours
will be next disturbance/cold front which will move across the
TAF sites on Saturday morning with a 1-2 hour period of light
rain and MVFR ceiling potential. Until then, northerly winds of
12-15kt with some gusts to 20kts in some areas will continue
this afternoon amidst scattered-broken VFR clouds. Skies should
clear this evening and remain clear through much of the night,
before a rapid onset of VFR ceilings ahead of the cold front.

Expect a fairly continuous line of rain/showers to move across
the TAF sites Saturday morning between 12Z and 15Z, with clouds
scattering out by later morning/early afternoon and more gusty
winds out of the west-northwest, perhaps as high as 25kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as
thunderstorms possible Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Binau