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000
FXUS61 KILN 240142
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
942 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid-level trough and a cold front will bring rain to the area
this evening. Drier and cooler weather will then be expected for
Wednesday and Thursday. As a ridge moves east of the region on
Friday, additional chances of precipitation will begin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Rain is moving east through the ILN area. This rain has
developed ahead of a mid-level shortwave, and roughly
coincident with a plume of theta-e at 850mb/700mb. The rain has
already ended over West Central Ohio, with the back edge
reaching our east fringe within a few hours.

A cold front will then move into the area later overnight, and
while temperatures fall to the low 40s to low 50s, little if
any additional precipitation is forecast, as the air mass will
be drying out. Some convection is expected upstream of the area,
so it is not out of the question that a few leftover showers
could get into the northern ILN CWA in the 06Z-12Z time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The surface cold front will be continuing to move south through
the ILN CWA on Wednesday morning, as a surface high builds into
the Great Lakes. Model soundings suggest that stratocumulus
clouds may not dissipate immediately, so some sky cover will be
maintained through the morning, particularly for parts of
central Ohio.

The main concern through this part of the forecast is in
frost/freeze potential on early Thursday morning. The high will
be centered over southern Ontario at 12Z Thursday, and there may
still be some light easterly flow in place. Otherwise conditions
will be ideal for cold temperatures, especially in the northern
and northeastern portions of the ILN CWA (and adjacent locations
in other CWAs). Have coordinated a Freeze Watch for some
counties where temperatures on Thursday morning appear fairly
likely to reach 32 degrees or lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large scale ridging continues to move into the region Thursday
while the surface high pressure continues to slowly be shunted
east toward the New England area. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny
skies dominate and temperatures reach the upper 50s/low 60s,
which is still a few degrees below normal. The high continues to
pushed off to the east as the next weather maker moves in from
our west. This allows for return southerly flow to dominate and
a warming trend ensues. Overnight lows into Friday fall to the
upper 30s/ low 40s and high clouds begin to spill over into the
region.

By Friday late morning, the warm front of the low to our west
will be lifting into the Ohio Valley, pushing showers out ahead
of it. Instability looks pretty limited through this time frame,
so widespread storms are not anticipated, but rumbles of
thunder may be heard. By afternoon/evening hours, a strong LLJ
overtakes the region and some of this energy is mixed down to
the surface, resulting in the onset of gusty conditions that
will hang around for several days. Temperatures rise to the
upper 60s/ low 70s.

The warm front continues to lift through the region and by
Friday overnight hours, some additional instability builds into
the area, resulting in continued chances for thunder as the ILN
CWA becomes warm sectored. Overnight lows fall to the upper 50s.


The area remains sandwiched under strong southerly flow between
the low pressure to our northwest and the high pressure that
has been creeping toward Bermuda for the weekend. This results
in highs in the upper 70s with Tds in the upper 50s and wind
gusts up to 30 MPH, particularly in west central Ohio.

By Sunday night, the upper level trough will have moved toward
the western Great Lakes, dragging a secondary surface feature
along with it. This brings the associated cold front into the
Ohio Valley, forcing showers and storms out ahead of it for
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flight conditions will deteriorate tonight as moisture along a
front moves to TAF sites. Showers are forecast at all sites
early in the forecast as moisture convergence and lift increase
ahead of the front. While the showers will be relatively brief
in duration, lasting a few hours, ceilings dropping to MVFR will
persist through a good part of Wednesday until high pressure and
dry air take over. CVG and LUK should be the first to improve to
VFR around 16z, with VFR returning to the remainder of sites by
the end of the forecast period. Winds may gust over 20 knots at
the start, with speeds falling off to around 10 knots as the
pressure gradient relaxes behind the front. Wind direction will
shift from southwest to north as the front progresses east.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052-054>056-065.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Coniglio