Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 230919

419 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

A large sfc ridge continues to dominate the ern part of the CONUS
with the center of the high near PA.  The high is not expected to
move much today. The ridge axis extends WSW thru the CWA which will
maintain the lght E/SE flow. With the overall synoptic setup not
changed much from yesterday...expect almost a carbon copy for today
with mostly clear skies and highs in the low/mid 70s.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

Upper level low now over the northern Rockies and Plains will move
slowly eastward tonight with at least weak convection ahead of it
across northwest MO.  It appears that the showers/storms will remain
north and west of our forecast area due to persistent surface ridge
extending from the northeast US southwest into eastern and southern
portions of MO.  The coolest low temperatures tonight will be across
southeast MO and southwest IL near the surface ridge axis where the
wind will be calm and there will only be some high level clouds.
The upper level low will eventually retrograde southwestward into
the central Plains Thursday and Thursday night.  There will be a
very gradual warming trend as the 850 mb temperatures begin to
slowly creep up over our area.  The ECMWF model tries to bring
precipitation into our area Sunday night and Monday as low level
moisture finally streams northward into the region ahead of an
upper level low and associated surface low over eastern OK and AR.
The GFS model also tries to bring some moisture northward into our
area, but is further north-northeast with the upper low and it does
not have any surface reflection, and also much less qpf in and near
our forecast area.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Specifics for KSTL, KCOU, KUIN, KCPS: Expect VFR conditions with
light winds due to a ridge of high pressure overhead.

Specifics for KSUS: Expect VFR conditions with light winds due to
a ridge of high pressure overhead. If steam fog develops along
the Missouri River, then the very light northeast/east winds which
are forecast overnight might push some of it onto the airport
grounds at KSUS. Confidence is too low at this time to include in
the TAF.





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