273
FXUS64 KMOB 171814
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
114 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024


Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the area
throughout the afternoon. Gusty winds and hail will accompany
strong to severe storms throughout the day. Ceilings will drop
into the MVFR to IFR range in and around scattered storms.
Outside of thunderstorms, conditions will remain gusty along the
coast through early afternoon. /13

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Currently watching and area of light to moderate rain moving
across our interior area this afternoon to the north of a
northward moving warm front. To the south of this boundary, the
airmass has become rather unstable with MLCAPE values around
2000J/Kg and deep layer shear values around 40 to 50 knots. We
will be closely monitoring these areas for any thunderstorms that
can develop as they will have the potential to become severe with
damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat remains very low
due to weak low level shear values. /13


SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The area dries out late in the weekend through the middle of next
week. Weak ridging aloft builds into the region as a trough
remains draped across the western Atlantic. This pattern results
in northerly to northwesterly flow aloft developing overhead
through early Wednesday. A surface high draped down the East Coast
eventually nudges into the region early next week and onshore
flow becomes established by Tuesday. A shortwave sliding across
the central portion of the CONUS will cause the ridge aloft to
briefly flatten toward the Gulf by mid-week. The bulk of the
showers and storms associated with this shortwave will likely
remain to our north on Wednesday and Thursday, although we can`t
rule out some isolated storms by Thursday afternoon.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains HIGH on Sunday and eventually
falls to MODERATE late on Sunday night. The risk remains MODERATE
on Monday. RCMOS probabilities indicate that the risk should fall
to a low on Tuesday through Thursday. RCMOS guidance does indicate
a very brief bump to MODERATE is possible Tuesday afternoon for
the beaches in northwest Florida. 07/mb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  82  67  88  66  90  69  87 /  80  80  20  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  80  70  86  69  88  72  85 /  60  90  30  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  80  71  85  71  85  72  84 /  50  80  40  20   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   68  82  65  87  64  89  64  89 /  80  90  30  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  66  84  64  86  63  90  66  91 /  70  70  10  10   0   0   0   0
Camden      67  82  64  85  63  88  64  89 /  70  80  30  20   0   0   0   0
Crestview   69  81  65  88  64  90  64  89 /  60  90  30  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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