Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 012023

323 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

In the swrly flow aloft developing in the vcnty of the PAH forecast
area, there was a minor shrtwv passing through the mid MS River
valley late today. This source of energy will continue to tap the
increasing lower trop moisture/available instability for a few
hours, resulting in a few showers and maybe even a tstm over
primarily sern MO. Otherwise, the overnight hours are expected to
be pcpn-free, except for a mainly slight possibility in swrn IL
and adjacent parts of sern MO.

Through sunset Thu, as our region remains under strengthening
swrly flow aloft, and awaits the arrival of a more significant
shrtwv trof and sfc low/cold front, there may be scattered to
widely scattered shower and tstm development well ahead of the sfc
front, but not necessarily wdsprd convection. The front should be
knocking on the wrn door by late evening, and forcing will support
the development of a squall line ahead of the front, entering our
region by 00Z Fri. The front is forecast to sweep rapidly ewd
across overnight. Severe wx parameters appear marginal for the wrn
two thirds of the PAH forecast area Thu evening, but certainly
isolated wind damage cannot be ruled out.

There may be some lingering showers Fri afternoon associated with
a lobe of energy swinging around an upper low digging into the
Great Lakes region. After one more day in the upper half of the
80s, temps Fri will be much cooler as significant height falls occur.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Confidence in the extended forecast is not that great beyond

The period will begin with a sharp and deep mid/upper-level trough
extending southward through the western Great Lakes and into the
middle and lower Ohio Valley on Saturday. Surface high pressure will
build over the region and the strong westerly flow in the low-levels
should weaken through the afternoon. The resultant cold advection
will lead to high temperatures in the upper 50s north to lower 60s
south, or around 15 degrees below normal, despite plenty of
sunshine. Couple the cold temperatures with a stiff westerly breeze
for much of the day, and it will be quite brisk.

Heading into Sunday, the details of the forecast become murky. The
mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over the Great Lakes/
Ohio Valley/Northeast through Tuesday, but impulses in that flow
coupled with any associated surface reflections will be difficult to
time due to the medium range models` typically poor handling of
those features.

The current consensus has the surface high settling to the south of
the region, allowing southwest or south winds to return to the area
Saturday night and Sunday. Another weak surface trough will rotate
through the region Sunday night and Monday, and there will be some
slight chances of showers with that feature. The trough passage will
be of little consequence, as the low-level flow will go right back
to southwest or south heading into Monday.

The last few runs of the GFS have been wet outliers in the Monday
night early Tuesday timeframe, with another disturbance and a minor
surface trough. This forecast has too much weighting on that GFS
solution, with the best PoPs up to 40% in the east Monday night.
GFS soundings look like they could support a few lightning strikes,
maybe. But for now, given the uncertainty, will not mention any
thunder through the extended forecast.

Looking at next Wednesday, the consensus has the upper flow relaxing
with 500mb heights rising. The 12Z GFS seems out to lunch firing off
persistent QPF on a weak front strung out east to west through the
region. Will discount the GFS for Wednesday.

As for temperatures, after the cold day Saturday, and modest warming
trend to near normal levels is expected by Tuesday. Might even see
some 80s over the southwest portions of the region on Wednesday.


Issued at 322 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected across the region as a warm air advection
pattern develops. Winds will be generally out of the south during
the daylight hours today. There will be some clouds at 6-8kft for
most of the 18Z TAF period. Winds will be light serly overnight,
then pick up Thu morning out of the south again, especially west
of the MS River. There was not enough probability for a shower or
tstm occurrence to include in the KCGI TAF yet.




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