Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 242010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Fair to high confidence in the short term.

Models are in good agreement with placing us in the warm sector
tonight as a warm front lifts through the area. This will allow
for unseasonably warm temperatures tonight and Wednesday. In
contrast...a cold front will be right on the heels of the warm
front bringing at least a slight chance of rain mainly south of
the Ohio River. Although portions of southwest Indiana could see
a chance as well. One thing the models agree on is that the front
will be moisture there will be little impact wherever
rain falls. The largest impact will likely be from gusty winds. We
could see southwest wind gusts as high as 25 mph during the day
Wednesday. After Wednesday its back to dry conditions with more
seasonable temperatures readings. Lows will fall below freezing
for all of the area starting Wednesday night. This seasonable
temperature pattern is expected to persist with daytime highs
above freezing and lows below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

The long term period will be dominated by mid level cyclonic flow
causing weak ripples of energy to migrate through from time to time.
Confidence is high in the overall synoptic pattern, but the timing
and track of each weak disturbance will likely continue to show some

The consensus has a disturbance passing by to our northeast on
Friday, with little more than an increase in cloud cover expected at
the moment. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some flurries, especially
over northeast counties though.

The northwest flow continues through the weekend, with another
shortwave diving south into our area on Sunday. At this point, the
track appears favorable for some light snow, possibly mixing with
rain across the south. Included slight chance PoPs beginning
Saturday night in the north. The 12Z ECMWF came in essentially dry
for this period though, although at this point it is the outlier
compared to other guidance. The system may squeak out a several
hundredths of QPF, but generally would expect just very light snow
accumulation if that, especially given above freezing sfc temps
during the day. Our area has only had one measurable winter
precipitation event so far this season, so this system is something
to keep an eye on, even with only light amounts.

Upper level heights begin to rise next week, thus leading to a
warming trend by Tuesday. High temperatures from Friday through
Monday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s with lows generally in
the 20s. After such a mild month so far, it`s back to reality for a
little while.


Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

MVFR low clouds have been slow to erode over northeast third of
the area. Anticipate a continued slow erosion from the southwest
with clearing at KEVV/KOWB by later this afternoon. Otherwise
expect some mid and high clouds at times through early overnight
as high pressure moves off to our east. A strong low pressure
system over the Central Plains today will move east to the Great
Lakes region tomorrow, bringing a cold front into our region. Low
clouds are anticipated to move in from the southwest during the
overnight/early morning hrs, with MVFR cigs common again. Deep
layer moisture is lacking so little if any rain is expected with
frontal passage. Might end up having a few light showers mainly
over west KY or southwest IN tomorrow. SSW winds will pick up tmrw
morning as the pressure gradient strengthens. Expect gusts up
around 15-20kts, perhaps a tad higher at times, especially
northeast counties.




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