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000
FXUS62 KRAH 240543
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
143 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and upper level disturbance will shift through the
region today, with the front then settling to our south tonight High
pressure will build in from the north Thursday through Friday night,
before shifting offshore over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 PM EDT Tuesday...

Clouds will begin to increase across the region over night,
especially across the NW Piedmont ahead of the approaching cold
front. Light SW winds of 5-10 mph will continue tonight and in
result we will see much warmer overnight lows than last night. Temps
overnight will generally drop into the low 50s, but some cooler
areas could see upper 40s.  50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 PM Tuesday...

Embedded within nwly flow aloft, a sheared vorticity wave will ride
through mid-Atlantic/central NC on Wednesday. An associated sfc cold
front will also pass through central NC Wednesday.  Forecast
soundings indicate at least fleeting moisture saturation extending
to the sfc, indicating that some very light rain may accompany the
passing cold front. After collaborating with neighboring WFOs,
decided to introduce slight to chance POPs between ~15 and 00Z.
Overall though, QPF should be quite low (trace to a few hundreds)
with this frontal passage. Otherwise, expect high temps in the lower
to mid/upper 70s Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 PM Tuesday...

The long term period will remain largely dry as persistent nwly flow
Thursday/Friday gives way to building/amplifying mid-level ridging
along the eastern seaboard.

After some cooler nely sfc flow Thursday and Friday (highs in the
upper 60s north to lower 70s south), flow will turn more esely and
then sswly Saturday through Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore.
As such, we`ll see a warming trend starting this weekend in the
upper 70s, followed by a climb in the mid 80s Monday and Tuesday.

The next chance for rain appears to be not until next
Tuesday/Wednesday as the upper ridge finally breaks down and an
upper trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 143 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are likely to persist across central NC for the next
24 hours, with high confidence. We will see a good chance for low-
level wind shear through around 12z, as a low level jet from the SW
at 35-40 kt sweeps over the region. Sct-bkn mid and high clouds will
pass over the area through tonight, then a several-hour-long period
of 7-9kft cigs with scattered light showers or sprinkles is expected
from late morning through mid-afternoon NW to SE; however, VFR
conditions will hold. Skies will then clear out by late in the TAF
valid period. Surface winds from the SW will shift to be from the W
gradually through the next 24 hours as a cold front moves through
the area.

Looking beyond 00z Thu, VFR conditions are expected to hold through
Sun, under high pressure. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...pwb