264
FXUS62 KRAH 021027 CCA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
627 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper-level trough and accompanying surface cold front
will move slowly eastward across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas
through Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...

The primary driver in today`s weather will be an upper trough
crossing the eastern US, along with a plume of deep moisture
ahead the trough axis as characterized by a swath of 2.2+ inch
pwat. At the surface, a stationary boundary is analyzed
extending from the northeast states southwest across the
southern Appalachians. Thanks to the aforementioned features
slowly moving east today, much of central NC is in store for a
relatively unsettled, if not wet and cooler day today as several
bands of showers and tstms are progged to move across our area.
One part of our CWA that may end up particularly wet will be
across the eastern half where rain and possible tstms may re-
develop during the early afternoon along a lingering outflow
boundary left over from the current rain shield. Given the high
pwat, any slow-moving or repetitive downpours could result in
localized flooding, and consequently most of our CWA is included
in marginal and slight ERO with slight west of a line from
Roanoke Rapids to Raleigh to Wadesboro, and marginal east of
that line. As for severe convection, right now we are not
outlooked in SWODY1, as it`s noted in the near-term guidance the
relative lack of instability thanks to extensive cloud cover
and pre-existing or ongoing rain. Speaking of instability, the
clouds and rain will result in temps that will be much more
comfortable today... with afternoon readings topping out in the
low-mid 80s...perhaps even cooler where the rain is greater in
coverage.

The upper trough axis is expected to move across central NC
between 00-06Z tonight, and will push the aforementioned
moisture plume and rain to our east, thus pops and mid-and high
clouds decreasing during this time. However, given the prior
rain and elevated low level moisture, stratus is expected to
develop overnight across a large part of central NC, so overall
cloud coverage tonight will remain. Lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...

By Thursday morning, the front should be near the I-95 corridor
and only drift southeastward during the day before finally
moving offshore Thursday night. This will keep at least a slight
chance of a shower/thunderstorm south and east of Raleigh
during the afternoon, but conditions should dry out after
sunset. With less cloud cover than Tuesday and Wednesday, highs
will rebound, ranging from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Lows will
be within a few notches of 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure will dominate the beginning of the Independence
Day weekend, and both Friday and Saturday should be dry across
the area. The primary potential for showers/storms through the
rest of the extended forecast will come with the potential
development of a tropical system along the front that is
currently moving through the region which will eventually stall
out over Florida. Regardless of whether this becomes a named
tropical system or not, diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage from south to north
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. High temperatures will remain
fairly steady through the extended forecast, around 90 degrees,
then trending a few degrees warmer for Tuesday. Lows will be
around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 627 AM EDT Wednesday...

Through 12Z Thursday: Current obs show sub-VFR conditions across all
of central NC, with MVFR cigs from KRDU eastward and IFR west of
KRDU.  Sub-VFR conditions will continue across much of central NC
through mid-day as patches of rain and scattered showers move across
the area. Then during the afternoon the rain and assoc MVFR or IFR
conditions will become more concentrated from KRDU eastward as the
upper trough begins to shift eastward. After 22Z, look for these
conditions to move east of I-95 with VFR conditions westward. After
06Z tonight, patchy stratus and IFR cigs will be possible.

After 12Z Thursday: Morning stratus and fog will be possible amid a
lingering, unseasonably moist airmass Thu morning, especially at ern
sites, ahead of a slow-moving and weakening cold front. Isolated
showers and storms may linger in the south and east on Thursday,
before dry weather and VFR conditions largely prevail from Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...np