093
FXUS61 KRNK 050800
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
400 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough of low pressure is slowly moving across
the Mid-Atlantic region, resulting in mostly cloudy skies,
areas of rain and rain showers, and a few thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, with the heaviest
occuring along and east of the Blue Ridge. Daily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are possible through much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Widespread rain east of the Blue Ridge this morning.

2. Cool easterly wind this morning transitions to a warmer
southerly wind this afternoon.

3. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Upper level trough is slowly working its way across the forecast
area. Best lift for widespread rain will occur along and east of
the Blue Ridge this morning...with opportunity for a quarter to
three quarters of an inch of rain before the church bells ring.
Dynamic support becomes more diffuse this afternoon, so think
we transition from stratiform rain to a more showery
environment, rainfall amounts becoming more variable. Breaks in
the cloud cover should lead to warmer temperatures,increasing
CAPE, and a better opportunity for a rumble of thunder. The
easterly low level flow should transition to more of a
southerly flow this afternoon, so look for temperatures to test
70 degrees this afternoon.

Tonight, showers will wane, but lingering moisture will maintain
a good bit of cloud cover along with patchy fog. Most of the fog
that we have been experiencing is coming from the low level
stratus coming in contact with the ground. So in this situation,
the higher elevations have the greater opportunity for fog where
the cloud base intersects the terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Warming trend in temperatures for beginning of the week.
2. Chances for showers and storms each day.

Rain and thunderstorm chances continue each day through this
short term period of the forecast as a front stalls to the
north and west of the area. Late Monday, a 500mb shortwave rides
over the ridge and provides some additional upper forcing for
ascent over the area, which could result in some showers and
storms. The surface front lifts northward Tuesday, putting the
area in a broad warm sector, with the surface low still over the
north central US, bringing in warmer air and more moisture.
With the front moving farther from the area early Tuesday,
expecting more breaks in the clouds than on Monday, and so
daytime heating will increase the instability over the area
later in the day, and will lead to showers and thunderstorms
again Tuesday afternoon.

Weak ridging at 500mb will spread over the southeast US and Mid
Atlantic into the beginning of the work week. Increasing heights
will lead to a warming trend in temperatures through Tuesday,
with increasing positive 850mb temperatures anomalies through
the middle of the work week. High temperatures will gradually
increase from the low 70s to upper 70s in the west, near 80 to
mid 80s in the east, through Tuesday. Lows will be mild, in the
mid to upper 50s in the west and low 60s in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms possible each day, highest probability
Thursday.
2. Warming temperatures through Wednesday, cooler for the
weekend.

Mid level ridging builds back in over the southeast and Mid
Atlantic in response to a trough deepening over the central
US. This keeps broad southwesterly flow at mid levels over the
area into the second half of the work week, but slowly
flattening and becoming more zonal into the weekend, as the main
500mb low tracks across southern Canada. A surface low pressure
system moves eastward across the Great Lakes by Thursday, with
a cold front extending south and another boundary extending
west-east across the upper Mid Atlantic. With this increased
large scale forcing, probabilities for thunderstorms are highest
on Thursday. Deterministic long range models show some
differences in the timing of the actual frontal passage, some
bringing it through the area late Thursday and others not until
Friday, which brings some uncertainty into duration of
precipitation with the front.

The warming trend in temperatures will continue through the
middle of the work week. Rain and cloud cover will keep
Thursday a couple degrees cooler as well, but not quite as cool
as the weekend, as a cooler and drier airmass settles into the
area behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

LIFR cigs and IFR/LIFR vsbys expected through this morning.
Improvement expected this afternoon as surface winds transition
from easterly to southerly. Widespread rain ongoing east of the
Blue Ridge will transition to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Mean wind aloft is
from the SSW, so expect storm cell movement this afternoon to be
from SW-NE. Probability for thunderstorms is too low to add to
any of the TAFS attm.

Lingering moisture tonight will result in areas of stratus and
fog, so look for cigs to lower again tonight following any
improvement we get this afternoon.

Confidence above average for today, and below average for
tonight. Not sure how widespread the fog and stratus will be
tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the upcoming week.
Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA Monday through Thursday. This will
bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times.
Winds Monday through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and
may be gusty at times.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM