818
FXUS61 KRNK 100918
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
518 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front wish push through the area this morning bringing
cooler air and gusty winds. A few showers will also be possible
through Saturday. Dry high pressure is expected on Monday,
followed by a widespread probability of precipitation Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold front crosses through the region today.

2) Gusty winds and cooler temperatures.

A cold front is in the process of crossing the area this
morning. A few showers associated with the front continue early
this morning, but will taper off by daybreak.

Winds become gusty behind the front today, generally out of the
WNW and perhaps a few gusts to 30mph are possible in the higher
elevations. Along with gusty winds, drier dew points will push
in throughout the day, so will have a much drier feel to the
air.

With the passage of the upper low, could have some afternoon
showers develop, with perhaps an isolated chance of a rumble of
thunder across the Piedmont areas where heating will be the
greatest.

Winds subside a bit overnight and temperatures drop into the
40s. A few low 40s possible in the highest elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for cooler conditions this weekend.

2) Mountain rain showers will be possible during Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning.

In the wake of a frontal passage early this weekend, large scale
northwest flow will set up from Canada right into the Mid-
Atlantic. This will provide cooler temperatures over the
weekend, with lows in the 40s and daily high temperatures just
eking into the 70s east of the Blue Ridge, mid 60s west.

An embedded shortwave within the broader trough will move south
on Saturday, encouraging some scattered shower formation. The
lack of instability and drier air mass will prevent strong
thunderstorms, but it wouldn`t be surprising to see a flash of
lightning here or there Saturday afternoon. A surface high will
take over most of the eastern seaboard and cut off any more rain
chances on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for warmer conditions by next week.

2) Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will return with the
highest odds possible by Tuesday.

Monday should start dry with high pressure across the Mid Atlantic.
The high should head offshore later in the day to provide warm air
advection and moisture advection from southwest flow. However, this
increase in warmth and moisture will combine with an approaching
Rocky low moving through the MS River valley. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will return late Monday/early Tuesday.
Isolated convection may reach the southern Blue Ridge and far
southwest Virginia by Monday night, but the greatest odds for
showers and thunderstorms appears to be Tuesday. Moisture will
linger through Wednesday, but the abundant cloud cover might
somewhat limit the thunder chances. Weak high pressure could
bring a brief reprieve during Thursday morning, but another low
pressure system may approach from the west by late Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

As the cold front passes through this morning, surface and low-
level winds turn from the southwest to west, then with a second
short wave, winds become northwest this afternoon. Models
suggesting some stronger gusts through this evening. Should be
around 20-25kts with highest gusts near ROA/TNB/HSP.

Upslope stratocu appears likely today across the WV mountains
so some sub-VFR at BLF/LWB expected.

A few showers possible but coverage is too low overall to have
in the tafs.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Expecting MVFR showers, mainly in the mountains into Saturday.
Some upslope mountain showers may occur Saturday night. VFR
conditions are expected Sunday and Monday under dry, high
pressure. The probability of precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings
and visibilities increases on Tuesday ahead of a low pressure
system in the central United States.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...PW/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG