Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TO ADD COUNTY CODES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015


...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

This Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Springfield
Missouri Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) and includes the following
rivers across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas...White...
Osage...Marmaton...Sac...Gasconade...Big Piney...Spring...Elk...
Shoal...James...North Fork White...Eleven Point and Jacks Fork.

The potential for river flooding will be near normal to below normal
for the Spring Season. This prediction is based on the combination
of soil moisture and drought conditions...stream and lake
conditions...and expected precipitation through the Spring.

Currently there is no river flooding occurring in the Springfield
HSA. There is snow on the ground with liquid water content averaging
between one quarter inch and one inch. Heavy rainfall will be possible
this weekend and may result in localized flash flooding if sufficient
rain falls on the current snow pack. However...river flooding on
the larger rivers in the Springfield HSA is not expected.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ...

Soil moisture conditions are currently near to below normal across
the Springfield HSA...due to below normal precipitation since early
December.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor...there is no drought across
the Springfield HSA. However...abnormally dry (D0)conditions were observed
across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

...STREAM FLOW AND LAKE CONDITIONS...

Stream flows across most of the region were much below normal and ranked
in the 10th to 24th percentile of normal flows...with some locations below the
10th percentile.

Lakes along and near the Osage River...including Lake of the Ozarks...
Stockton and Pomme de Terre were occupying around 90 percent of their
multi-purpose pools. Truman Lake occupied 100 percent of its multi-purpose
pool and 1 percent of its flood control pool. Lakes along the White River
Basin...including Beaver...Table Rock...Bull Shoals and Norfork...were
occupying around 80 percent of their multi-purpose pools...with 100 percent
of their flood pools available for storage of Spring rainfall.

...STREAM FLOW OUTLOOK...

The potential for river flooding will be near to below normal this Spring for
all basins in the Springfield HSA. If flooding is observed...it is expected to be minor. Specific probabilities
minor to moderate. Probabilities for flooding for the Spring for select river
forecast points will be included in the Long Range Probabilistic Outlook
Tables below.

...CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

The latest 8 to 14 Day Outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction
Center indicates below normal temperatures and near to above normal
precipitation are expected. The 1-Month and 3-Month Outlooks for the period
March and March through May respectively show equal chances of above...below
and normal temperatures and precipitation.

...SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...

Drought conditions are not expected to develop across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeast Kansas through this Spring.

...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK TABLES...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  2/21/2015 - 5/22/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  55   59   38   40   <5   <5
:Little Osage
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  78   79   34   39   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  34   38   10   11    6    7
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  75   71   26   37    7    9
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  10   15   <5    5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Ft. Wood - East G    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  57   62   23   13   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  29   43   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  21   22    9    7   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  26   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  22   24   10   12   <5    5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              14.0   15.0   16.0 :   6    6    5    5   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  28   33    8    8   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 2/21/2015 - 5/22/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                6.9    7.3   15.7   23.9   27.5   28.8   29.7
:Little Osage
Horton               34.7   36.5   42.2   43.7   46.1   47.7   49.4
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott           18.7   19.5   32.0   36.1   39.6   41.9   43.8
Nevada               12.4   15.6   19.9   23.7   27.0   30.1   32.4
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            5.1    5.4    7.2   10.4   17.5   21.1   23.4
:Big Piney
Ft. Wood - East G     4.6    4.8    5.7   10.1   14.8   17.7   20.0
:Gasconade River
Jerome                5.6    6.0    8.0   11.0   16.5   21.4   23.2
:Spring River
Carthage              3.0    4.0    4.6    6.2    9.0   14.0   16.3
Waco                  4.8    6.1    8.2    9.9   19.5   25.4   26.7
Baxter Springs        5.1    5.7    6.3    8.0   12.2   22.2   28.2
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                3.1    3.5    4.2    5.4    7.6   10.2   15.2
:Elk River
Tiff City             6.0    6.6    8.2   10.7   15.6   19.4   21.4

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 2/21/2015 - 5/22/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.3    3.2
:Little Osage
Horton               26.3   26.2   26.2   26.0   25.8   25.7   25.6
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.2    7.2
Nevada                2.8    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.2
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
:Big Piney
Ft. Wood - East Gate  1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
:Gasconade River
Jerome                1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued on March 5th.

$$

Terry





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