Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 232036
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1236 PM AKDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Short term guidance continues to handle the big picture
well, but as expected they are lacking in the details. Run to run
continuity continues to be very good for the short term. The
23/12Z solutions initialized well with the 23/18Z surface
analysis. Precipitation is one of the details that is lacking in
most model solutions, but the short term SREF seems to be best at
handling it so will use it the first 48 hours.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Long wave trough persists over the eastern
half of the state through the weekend, then starts reorienting
to the west and eventually settles over the eastern Bering Sea and
Chukchi Sea late next week. A 518 dam low over Prince William
Sound will merge into the trough this evening. Ridging over the
Bering Sea will remain in place with a 540 dam center developing
over the Pribilofs Friday afternoon. The ridge will weaken and
move west Monday. A 480 dam low near 80N 180 will move east to 80N
140W by Sunday morning, then southeast over Banks Island by
Wednesday morning. A shortwave associated with the low lies over
the Chukchi Sea and will move east and merge into the longwave
trough. A second shortwave associated with the low will swing
around the low over the western Bering sea Saturday night and move
east across the arctic Sunday. At 850 hpa...Temperatures pretty
steady over the forecast area around -15, but will start warming
Monday and they will slowly rise through the week to near zero by
the end of the week.

Surface...Ridging extends from Siberia over the Chukotsk
Peninsula to the Seward Peninsula and then east over the Brooks
Range will persist and expand to the southeast over the interior
tonight, then persist through the weekend. A 1003 mb low in the
Gulf of Alaska will move near Yakutat and dissipate as a 994 mb
low move to the Queen Charlotte Island, then moves north over the
southeast panhandle, weakens, and dissipates. A 100 mb low will
develop over Prince William Sound Saturday morning and move
southwest and dissipate. A 985 mb low will move out of the
northeast Pacific Sunday into the southeast Gulf of Alaska and
move to the northern Gulf by Tuesday morning as it weakens to 994
mb. A 965 mb low south of the western Aleutians will persist with
a 978 mb low moving to the central Aleutians by Sunday morning
the lows then merging into a single low over the central
Aleutians Monday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...High pressure continue to hold
over interior Alaska and this is producing a fairly zonal flow
across the arctic with a more active pattern. Weak fronts will
continue to move east through the area spreading periods of
clouds and snow across the area. Winds generally west at 10 to 20
mph, although a few areas will see winds gusting to around 35 mph
with some blowing snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour
Microphysics RGB at 23/1554Z shows quite a bit of stratus over the
Chukchi Sea and eastern Bering Sea associated with a decaying
front that moved into the area spreading a few flurries to the
area. The stratus should dissipate over the next 24 hour as it
moves under the ridge. Winds generally light and variable, the
exceptions will be the outer Capes where winds will be around 20
mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...A repeat of the last few days as
some of the models continue to try and swing precipitation north
into the central interior. Ridge is strong enough that it will
keep precipitation to the southeast of Delta Junction, and south
of Eagle, with just some clouds making in into the central
interior and the upper Yukon Valley. Temperatures will continue
to be dependent on cloud cover, so areas with clouds will be
warmer at night, but forecast will lean toward the colder
solutions. Wind will be light and variable for most areas.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 17


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