Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 251048

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 AM AKDT WED MAY 25 2016


MODELS...Excellent short term agreement, becomes a little fuzzier
as we go through the weekend and into next week but the general
consensus is keeping the ridge over the southwestern 2/3rds of the
mainland through most of next week. Ridge does seem to building in
just a tad faster than previous runs and that will help shutoff
the moisture flowing into the interior on the zonal flow just a
little sooner. Just going to nudge the temperatures a bit with no
significant changes. Precipitation worked out pretty well
yesterday using a blend with a lean to the NAM, so will work with
that again today.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 529 hpa low over the Siberian coast 400 nm
west of Wrangel island will continue to drift slowly north and
west through Friday. A shortwave moved east across the interior
last evening and will exit into Canada this morning. Flow has
become westerly and will continue through tonight allowing a
series of weak shortwaves to move east across the state. A 575
dam high just south of Cold Bay will become closed as it moves
over Bristol Bay by Thursday morning. The high will eventually cut
off the westerly flow across the state as it moves over the
Unalakleet by Friday morning...then persists over the Norton Sound
region through the weekend. Ridging over the northeastern arctic
and Beaufort sea is moving northwest. A trough over the arctic
coast and Brooks Range will slowly be pushed offshore as the ridge
builds. At 850 HPA...Zero isotherm lies from Dawson Yukon to
Delta Junction to Eek to St Matthew Island this morning and will
lie from Dawson Yukon to Delta Junction to Nikolai to Buckland and
then west by Thursday morning. It will continue to push north
through Friday as the ridge builds and will lie From Old Crow
Yukon to Barrow to Wrangel Island by Saturday morning with
temperatures over the west coast rising to near 10 celsius above
and eastern interior temperatures rising to around 5 celsius
above. Temperatures will continue to warm through the middle of
next week.

SURFACE...Not a lot of change in the surface pattern over the
past 24 hours. Stationary front lies over the Brooks range this
morning with ridging over the high arctic associated with a 1024
mb high 600 nm north northwest of Barrow. High pressure persists
south of the Brooks Range with a 1022 mb high over the middle
Yukon valley associated with a 1030 mb high in the northeast
Pacific 200 nm south of Kodiak Island. The front will remain over
the Brooks Range through early Friday before is squeezed out by
the ridge building over the west coast. a 1029 mb high will
develop over Bristol Bay this evening and move to Norton Sound by
late Thursday, then merges with the ridging over the arctic
resulting in a 1029 mb center over the Seward peninsula and a 1033
mb high 200 nm north of Barrow by Friday morning. Ridging over the
arctic will move slowly east through the weekend. A Thermal low
will develop over the upper Tanana valley Friday and strengthen
slowly through the weekend.

24/2353Z indicates some patchy low clouds and areas of dense fog
on the arctic coast and observations at 24/0900z are reporting
dense fog at Deadhorse and Point Thomson. The GOES MVFR/IFR
products at 25/0830Z indicate MVFR conditions over most of the
coastal areas with just patches of IFR conditions east of Barrow.
Will still need to watch for lower conditions in the other coastal
areas with open water and the front wandering around to consider.
As the ridge build over the west coast winds will begin to flip
around and be from the west and northwest by Friday morning over
most of the area. As long as the stationary front hangs around,
expect some periods of precipitation in various forms from rain to
snow, with a chance of freezing rain as well. Temperatures along
the coast mainly in the 30s with temperatures in the Brooks range
and inland plains in the 40s during the day and 20s at night
through Friday then a few degrees warmer through next week.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...West flow is already spreading
showers over the lower Yukon delta and Norton Sound and that will
continue through the day. As the ridge build north tonight the
west flow shifts north as well and will be over the Bering Strait,
chukchi sea, and Kotzebue Sound tonight through late Thursday. Not
seeing a lot of Thunderstorm activity with this but would not be
completely surprised by a few strikes. Most areas will see 1/4 to
3/4 of an inch or rain through Thursday with higher amounts of
around an inch possible in the Nulato hills and the south slopes
of the Brooks Range. Temperatures moderated by the clouds and
showers the next 36 hours then a fairly sharp warming trend as
the ridge moves over the area.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Showers will continue to spread
east across the central and eastern interior this morning and
persist into the early afternoon Thursday before coming to and
end. Rainfall amounts of up to 3/4 of an inch will be possible.
Some of the heavier rain will be in the upper Chena basin, the
White mountains, and Ray mountains. Slight chance of a
Thunderstorm today in the Fortymile country. Winds will generally
be light from the west to northwest. Temperatures slightly below
normal through Friday then a warming trend that will continue into
the middle of next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...Generally wet with relatively high CWR values
across the west coast and interior the next couple days. Only a
slight chance of Thunderstorms over the Fortymile country today.
Warming and drying trend beginning Friday will continue through
at least the middle of next week.


.HYDROLOGY...Flood Watch for the Colville continues through this
morning as some ice jams have formed and are of concern as
breakup continues on the north slope. Look for updates to the
Flood Watch later this morning.



Flood Watch for AKZ203.



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