Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 032015
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1215 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED
WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS REASONABLE
THROUGH 60 HRS. A CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS AS WELL AS THE
INHERITED FORECAST WERE USED TO GENERATE THE FORECAST.

ALOFT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WITH AN ANCHORING 524 HPA LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. A THERMAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR OLD CROW IN THE YUKON SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TO AROUND BETTLES AND THEN SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO THE LOWER YK DELTA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTED
INDICES DIP TO AROUND NEGATIVE 1 TO 2 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES
BUILDING TO THE 600 TO 800 JOULES RANGE.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SOAKED THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AROUND
FAIRBANKS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SPOTS RECEIVING
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO NORTHEAST HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED IN RAIN COOLED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FROM FAIRBANKS EAST.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
FAIRBANKS THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
SHORE INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. LIGHT SNOW AND AT TIMES MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES OVER THE NORTH SLOPE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG THE AFORE MENTIONED THERMAL TROUGH HOWEVER
HIGH HUMIDITIES AND RECENT PRECIP WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE THE FAIRBANKS AREA APPEARED TO FALL ON
GROUND FREE OF LINGERING SNOW PACK WITH EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
GOODPASTER RIVER. A SHARP RISE OF JUST OVER A FOOT IS NOTED ON
THE GOODPASTER RIVER...HOWEVER RIVER LEVELS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO FALL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR RIVER LEVEL SPIKES ON LOCAL
STREAMS AND RIVERS AS RECENT RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT
WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE LOWER RIVER BASINS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 16



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