Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 240911
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
111 AM AKDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement in the short term, and exhibit
reasonable spread in the mid range. Model spread increases
considerably in the extended range.  A generally quiet weather
pattern for the remainder of the weekend with the biggest forecast
forecast challenge continuing to be fog and low ceilings on the
north slope, rain showers in the interior and gap winds through
the Alaska Range passes.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a double barrel low pressure system along the
southern coast will continue to drift to the west over Bristol Bay
while a front rotating around the low pressure systems pushes
north over the Alaska Range and into the southern interior. A weak
low develops over the Fortymile country and moves north and east
into the Yukon as the front stretches from near Eagle to Fairbanks
to Hooper Bay Monday morning. The front will be the focus for
scattered rain showers late Sunday night through Tuesday morning
over the YK Delta and Tuesday evening over eastern Alaska and will
continue with mostly cloudy conditions over most of the central
and eastern interior through Tuesday but as a a ridge builds over
the the west coast, and western interior skies are expected to
become partly cloudy.

A front sweeping south and east from a 994 mb low just south of
the north pole along the dateline will pass Wrangel Island Sunday
morning and will approach the the northwest coast Monday morning.
The front sweeps east across the north slope through the day
monday and will bring gusty north and west winds, snow showers and
much colder temperatures to inland areas. Relatively warm ocean
water will prevent temperatures from dropping as much along
coastal areas. The westerly wind flow will help enhance upslope
flow over the northeast Brooks Range and and adjacent plains and
will bring accumulating snow to these areas.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 17



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