Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 222314
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather pattern and below normal temperatures will
persist through next weekend. A cold Arctic airmass has settled
in as well as areas of stratus/fog/flurries over parts of Northern
Alaska. Marginal wind chill advisory conditions along the eastern
Arctic Coast and channeled areas in the Seward Peninsula and
western Brooks Range. The 22/12Z deterministic model suite is
similar in its solutions through Wednesday evening. The NAM is a a
bit faster in its progression of the upper low currently over the
North Slope from Wednesday evening on. The ECMWF and GFS are
fairly similar beyond Wednesday evening with the longwave patter,
but there are some differences in how the aforementioned low as it
moves into the Gulf of Alaska. General model consensus keeps a
broad longwave trough and low center over mainland Alaska, which
will be pushed south and east into the Gulf of Alaska late this
week as an amplified upper level ridge builds north over the
Bering and Chukchi Seas and then west over western Alaska by next
weekend.

Eastern and Central Interior...There has been little change in
in the westward extent of the cloud edge over the last 24 hours
and remains along a general boundary from Anaktuvuk Pass to
Bettles south to Minchumina and Puntilla Lake. The exception is
in the Upper Koyukuk Valley near Bettles where stratus, fog, and
very light snow has spread over the area. To the east of this
line, low overcast skies and periods of very light snow will
continue over the next few days with up to 2 inches of new
snowfall expected. The variable nature of the cloud deck will
play a factor in temperatures, but generally expect temperatures
to remain colder in the 30s to lower 40s below west of the line
and warmer in the 10s to 20s below under cloudy skies. There is
the potential for wind chill issues later this week when the
pressure gradient tightens between Fort Yukon and the crest of the
Brooks Range with winds expected to increase.

West Coast and Western Interior...Below normal temperatures will
persist throughout the forecast period. The coldest temperatures
of 35 to 45 below observed over the Western Interior this morning
and expected again tonight into Tuesday morning. May see
temperatures moderate and warm little over the after Tuesday
morning as cloud cover increases. Over the Chukchi Sea and Norton
Sound coasts, will see flurries tonight. There is still a
potential for wind chill issues over the southwestern Brooks Range
and northwest Interior where winds will remain marginal (10-14
mph) through late this week.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Westerly winds around 15 mph
combined with cold temperatures along the eastern Arctic Coast
have resulted in advisory level wind chill values from Deadhorse
east. Since the issuance of the Wind Chill Advisory this morning
for zone 204, temperatures have warmed some as snow and cloud
cover increased...so conditions are marginal for an advisory. Will
continue to see the gradual warming trend along the eastern Arctic
Coast as cloud cover and very light snow persists. Onshore flow
will keep flurries, fog, and cloudy skies over the western Arctic
Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ204.
&&

$$

LTH JAN 18


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