Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 032125
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
125 PM AKDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT IS
EXTENDING DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA. THIS
IS CAUSING STRONG UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WHICH HAS ADVECTED IN DECENT AMOUNTS OF QPF. QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A
HALF AN INCH IN MANY AREAS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AS SUSPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST HAVE SUBSIDED WITH THE
GRADIENT BEING DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST ASSISTED WITH
THE FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW PUSHING EAST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO BUILD IN OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
BUILD. IT IS ADVERTISED TO BE A 579 HIGH AT 500H WHICH IS VERY
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH SUPPLY
DECENT COLD ADVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
TUE AND THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST ON WED.
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BAND WILL LEAD THE COLD AIR. THIS
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE
RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE ON TUE NIGHT
AND WED. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
ON WED AS IT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL
INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE RH VALUES THROUGH TUE
BEFORE THE OCCLUDED FRONT SPREADS RAINFALL THROUGH THE AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SHOULD SEE OVERALL RH VALUES ABOVE 40
PERCENT AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN TO PROVIDE MARITIME AIR
OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF AUG 15



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