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FXAK67 PAJK 262303

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure persists over the eastern
gulf through Saturday night. A weather front will move north
across the central gulf Saturday and Saturday night.

.SHORT TERM...Another round of good model agreement with the ridge
remaining in the gulf that keep the worst of the weather to our
west. Model guidance came from the NAM and GFS. A blend with our
Anchorage Forecast office at our border brought in a slight
increase to the winds over the central gulf, it did not result in
anything higher than a 25 kt starting Saturday morning for the
extreme western edges of marine zone 310 and 51.

Clouds move into the Yakutat area overnight with the bulk of
the rain staying west of Yakutat Bay until Saturday night.
Elsewhere over the panhandle, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
although with recent rains we could see some patchy fog form in
the overnight hours for the central panhandle. There was
significant drying today, which should keep fog impacts minimal.

Wind across the panhandle is generally 5 to 15 kt, with a weak sea
breeze in some locations this afternoon. After sunset winds
should return to light and variable over much of the area. One
location that will be a little tricky is Haines area with a
southeasterly flow relaxing tonight that may allow for weak
downsloping bring a northwesterly wind to the Chilkat Valley late
night and early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Thursday/ As of 10 pm
Thursday. Generally only a few small changes to the forecast in
the mid to later time frames. The most significant change over
the weekend was the the idea that the ridge axis has been moved
about 150 miles eastward to lie more over the panhandle than
rather off shore. The result for Saturday night and Sunday for the
coastal waters is that Northwest winds along the outer coast is
now a southerly or becoming a lighter west for the marine area
west of Prince of Wales Island.

Forecast solution from WPC, which is what was being used for
minor changes into midweek was for the ridge of higher pressure to
persist along the panhandle/coastal mountain range while a broad
area of low pressure develops and moves into the southwestern Gulf
of Alaska. The flow about this will be trying to spread some
moisture and rain into the eastern half of the Gulf of Alaska
though it may take until Wednesday before the precipitation does
so with a frontal band about the western gulf low.

The weekend ridge/area of high pressure is not as substantial as
some of the thoughts in the previous forecast, and it is being
moved northward or being weakened. As a result the threat of a
widespread marine deck with the low clouds and fog bank are
lessened at least for the main gulf waters. However the high
pressure will take the marine deck that is in the eastern Pacific
waters that is being maneuvered to the British Columbia coast
late Saturday and start moving that north to be approaching the
Dixon Entrance area later Sunday into Memorial Day. This may end
up being pushed northward early part of next week and could lower
the temperatures there for the first half of the week.

For now left the highs in 60s to near 70 for panhandle which are
being supported by a warm layer of air that is being advected
north. Expect to see the 850 mb temperatures to rise 5 to 10
degrees C between Friday and Sunday with 850 temperatures from 4
to 10 C by Sunday.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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