Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030655
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE REGION.
DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS SRN VA (JUST N OF THE
NC BRDR) WITH A S/W MOVG OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST. THIS S/W WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS CONVECTION. ALSO NOTING THAT AN OUTFLOW
BNDRY SAGGED SOUTH INTO NRN NC THIS EVENING FROM THE TSTRMS. THIS
BNDRY WAS SEEN ON AKQ RADAR AS FAR S AS THE ALBEMARLE SND. THIS
IS WHERE MOST IF NOT ALL THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS LOCATED LAET
THIS EVENING.

HIGH RES DATA NOT ALL THAT BULLISH WITH A LOT OF PCPN FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT. DATA WUD AGREE WITH THIS SOLN SINCE LTL IF ANY PCPN
NOTED UPSTREAM. NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING /
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING ACROSS TN/KY. GIVEN THIS DATA...LOWERED
POPS FOR REST OF THE EVENING TO CHC OVR MOST OF THE FA...EXCEPT
LIKELY THRU MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NC
SNEAKING JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SND WHERE OUTFLOW BNDRY SEEMS
TO HAVE STALLED. OTW...SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH...CHC POPS OVR
THE SOUTH AFTR MIDNIGHT GIVEN LCTN OF FRNTL BNDRY AND AVBL LOW LVL
MOISTURE.

SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL AFTR MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND FLOW...WET
GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...DONT XPCT ANY WDSPRD
FOG ATTM. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS OVER THE MIDWEST FRI MORNING...TRACKING EWD OVER THE
OH VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK EWD
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...LOCATING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE FRI. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATES
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX REMAINS
ACROSS NC...BUT PWATS PROGGED TO REMAIN +2 STD DEV OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS SREF AND NAM GUIDANCE
MAINTAIN MODEST INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW PERSISTS FRI
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS ALONG THE OH VALLEY. MAY SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOLID
CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE AIRMASS AND AVAILABLE ENERGY. TROUGH AXIS
LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT AS THE SFC LOW RE-
ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCES (CHANCE POPS) WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST AS LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY. BAGGY TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS SUN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SWD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 85 SOUTH
FRI AND SAT...WARMING INTO MID-UPPER 80S SUN WITH LESS PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER. COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
WPC/SREF QPF AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES FOR SAT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, OUR
CURRENT PATTERN OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY, SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
IN THE PERIOD ARE ON MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE
PINWHEELING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PER BOTH THE
12Z/02 ECMWF AND GFS. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL.
ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED
HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY
WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER...AND WILL RMN
THERE INTO THIS AFTN. MDLS TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS
THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM LT TDA THROUGH SAT. THE FNTL BNDRY
TO THE S (NOW) RETURNS N BEGINNING LT TNGT...CONTG INTO FRI.
STARTING OUT W/ VRB CIGS/VSBYS (AT TIMES IFR) THIS MRNG. AN AREA
OF SHRAS WINDING DOWN INVOF NE NC ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL
TSTMS XPCD LT TNGT INTO SAT. A SECOND ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PCPN PSBL
SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS
THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM
INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS CONT OVER THE WTRS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WKND.
FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED OVR THE NC CSTL WTRS...AND RMNS THERE THIS
MRNG...BEFORE PULLING BACK N LT TNGT INTO SAT. PRIMARILY NNE WNDS
BECOMING ESE TDA (SPEEDS AOB 15 KT)...THOUGH VRB INVOF NE NC WTRS.
THE BNDRY SINKS BACK S LT SAT INTO SUN AS WK SFC LO PRES EXITS S
OF NEW ENG...RESULTING IN WINDS SWITCHING FM MNLY SSW (SAT) TO NNE
(SUN). THROUGH THE WKND...CONDS RMN SUB-SCA...W/ WAVES IN THE BAY
AVGG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE OCN WTRS AVGG 2-4 FT...AND WIND SPEEDS
MNLY AOB 15 KT. GUSTY WNDS/HVY RA WILL BE PSBL IN ANY TSTMS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR/SAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB/LKB/LSA
MARINE...ALB/MAM
CLIMATE...AKQ


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