Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER NORTH OF I-64
THIS EVENING. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH DAY TO SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH WITH THE WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS HAS THUS KEPT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM
AND EVEN THE GFS SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN VA/WV MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE E-SE TO AREAS NORTH OF I-
64 AND INTO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE THE AREA BEING REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND MD
EASTERN SHORE. OTHERWISE...WITH ALL OF THE RAIN AND ALL OF THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR VA AND MD...BUT KEEP CHANCE POPS IN NE
NC AS THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE BEST MOISTURE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY...IT SEEMS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER GIVEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING
OVER THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS
AFTN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 500-1200FT. IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. -DZ IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC
OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY S OF THE LOCAL
AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ME RIDGING DOWN THE MID
ATLC CST. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO
SAT...LEADING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CSTL WTRS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO ~5 FT OVER NRN CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST SAT
MORNG...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THERE THRU MIDDAY SAT...AND
THIS MAY PSBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO THE DAY. SUB-SCA NE
FLOW TNGT/SAT BCMS SELY THEN SLY SAT NGT INTO SUN AS SFC LO PRES
MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A COLD FRNT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA SUN NGT/MON...WHICH BCMS STALLED IN THE VICINITY ERLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ/MAS


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