Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC HI PRES LOCATED OVR THE FA ATTM...PROVIDING DRY/COMFY WX.
MNLY SKC E...PCLDY W...W/ MOST SFC DEWPTS FM THE U50S TO L60S.
VERY WK MID LVL TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE W...CROSSING THE RGN
THIS AFTN...W/ MINIMAL FORCING/DYNAMICS. STRONG CAP INVOF 800MB AS
WELL...SO XPCG MNLY PATCHY MID LVL CLDNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. HAVE LIMITED SLGT CHC POPS FOR AREAS WELL W OF THE I 95
CORRIDOR. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO ARND
80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRNT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. MAINLY DRY...XCPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY. LOWS M50S-L60S.

TSCTNS CONT TO SHOW SOME MID & UPR LVL MSTR ACROSS THE AREA FRI
AND FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH A E-NE WND. DRY AS MODELS DON`T SPRT ANY
PCPN. HIGHS M-U70S. LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S.

DATA SHOWING MSTR INCRG A BIT ALONG SERN COASTAL SCTNS SAT AS A WEAK
TROF PROGGED TO ROTATE WEST AND APPRCH THE COAST SAT MORNING. THIS
CUD BE ENUF OF A TRIGGER FOR SOME LGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE SERN COASTAL
AREAS. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW THAT THIS OCCURS...SO KEPT ISLTD POPS
ALONG THE SERN CSTL AREAS FOR NOW. TMPS MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS. HIGHS U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGS CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON.  THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS KRIC AND KSBY. THIS TROF WILL PRODUCE CIGS AROUND 4
THOUSAND FEET. AFTER THE TROF MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL DEVELOP A
STEADY EAST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KTS FOR KECG AND KORF STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH WIND OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE SOME
SCATTERED STRATACU AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET. IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO HI PRES
BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU FRIDAY. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO DISTANT TC
EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT
DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3
FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG
TO 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM/JAB
MARINE...JDM





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