Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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