Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM





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