Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 160254
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
954 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks northeast and away from the Mid Atlantic
tonight. High pressure returns Saturday and slides offshore
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Lo pres that brushed mainly the lower MD ern shore w/ -SN late
this afternoon/early eve now E of the NJ/DE coasts...and will
continue to track away from the region overnight. Any accums
were less than 1". Weak sfc hi pres begins to build into the
region...resulting in mainly SKC and cold wx overnight. Lows in
the 20s inland...l30s at the immediate coast in SE VA-NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds across the SE CONUS Saturday and becomes
centered in vicinity of the NC coast by Saturday night. Highs
Saturday rise into the mid 40s N to the upper 40s/near 50F S
with a partly sunny sky N to mostly sunny sky S. Mostly clear
and seasonally cool Saturday night with lows ranging from the
upper 20s/around 30F inland to the mid 30s for coastal SE VA/NE
NC.

High pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weak trough pushes
across the Great Lakes. Some upper level srn stream moisture
will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in increasing
clouds Sunday. Highs Sunday range from around 50F N to the mid
50s S. High pressure remains offshore Monday. A dampening srn
stream wave pushes into the Tennessee Valley by Monday aftn.
Decreasing clouds Sunday night with lows ranging from the
mid/upper 30s N to the low 40s SE. Increasing clouds and mild
Monday with highs generally 55-60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rising 500mb heights on Monday will help afternoon temperatures
approach the 60 degree mark. Moisture will also be on the
increase, most prominently in the south. A compact impulse of
energy moves into eastern NC Monday during the day, helping to
spark a few showers, mainly across extreme south VA and northern
NC. Will keep a slight chance of showers going through the
overnight, followed by a lull in activity Tuesday morning.

Models diverge in their solutions for Tuesday and beyond. The
GFS/Canadian suggest a chance of rain Tuesday through early
Wednesday, ending during the day on Wednesday...while the EURO
waits to move any rain in until Wednesday afternoon, continuing
through Thursday morning. Confidence is somewhat higher with the
GFS/Canadian than the EURO at this time, so went with conditions
drying out Wednesday and Thursday.

High pressure builds back in, keeping us rain-free Thursday and
Friday. In the future and beyond, moisture increases from the
southwest early Saturday ahead of another approaching cold
front.

Temperatures will be above climate normals through Tuesday and
then cool down Wednesday behind a cold front. Another warm up is
expected Thursday and especially Friday with winds swinging back
out of the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Precipitation is quickly exiting the MD Eastern Shore as a low
pressure system tracks away from the Mid Atlantic coast. MVFR
ceilings will linger at SBY for the next couple of hours before VFR
conditions make a return. VFR conditions are expected at all of the
other TAF sites through the forecast period as high pressure builds
into the region. West/Northwest winds will shift to the southwest
tomorrow afternoon with winds generally around 10 knots.

Outlook: High pressure builds over the region and will allow for VFR
conditions through the weekend. Weak low pressure approaches from
the WSW Monday, but much of the moisture is expected to remain south
of the region. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday and pushes
through by Wednesday with only a minimal chance of shower Tuesday
into Tuesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
The developing sfc low is now over portions of the Tidewater
between Chesapeake and Virginia Beach and is moving off to the
ENE. North of the low have seen a persistent E to NE flow with
winds 10 to 15 kt, which were a bit more than the guidance
depicted. Those winds are now beginning to turn to the North as
the low is moving off the coast. Once the low gets off the coast
in the next couple of hours and continues to strengthen, will
see the winds turn N - NW and increase to 15 to 20 kt with
higher gust to around 25 kt, especially over the coastal waters
as the colder air off to the NW gets pulled off shore. Have kept
headlines in place for low end SCA conditions.

The winds will begin to relax by Sat afternoon as high pressure
slides over the area and the cold advection ends. This will
allow for a period of lighter winds and more tranquil seas of 1
- 2 ft through Sunday. By Monday the high pressure system will
pull east off the coast and the flow will turn southerly, but
will remain with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with seas 2
- 3 ft. This will continue through Tuesday in Wednesday when a
fresh cold front crosses the waters and once again the winds
will kick up to low end sca levels.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...ESS


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