Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS


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