Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES E-NE ALLOWING FOR YET ANTHR NIGHT FOR
STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG TO DVLP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BAY. BUFFER
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS.
ADDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER THE PIEDMONT. LOWS
M50S-L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND THRU FRI. CARRIED
OVER THE PTCHY DRIZZLE / FOG THU MORN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...OTW BCMG
PT SUNNY. HIGHS M70S ALONG THE COAST...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY.

PERSISTANT FCST XPCTD UNTIL FROPA FRI NIGHT SO MORE STRATUS/FOG PSBL
FRI MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M50S-L60S.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW APPRCHG CDFRNT DOWN WITH FRI LOOKING
DRY UNDER PT SUNNY SKIES. AGAIN...KEPT MORNING FOG OVR THE PIEDMONT.
HIGHS M70S COASTAL AREAS...ARND 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

FROPA W-E ACROSS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...EXITING OFF THE
COAST BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. DECENT SLUG OF MSTR PROGGED AHEAD OF IT
BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SLOWED POPS DOWN WITH ONLY CHC
EVENING POPS WEST OF THE BAY...THEN KEPT LIKELY POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT.
KEPT SLGHT CHC THUNDER IN ATTM GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF FROPA.
LOWS U50S-U60S.

MORNING POPS SATURDAY WITH SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY IN THE
AFTRN. TUFF CALL ON TMPS AS THE STRNGST CAA HOLDS OFF UNTIL SAT
NIGHT. WEST (DOWNSLOPING) WINDS ALONG WITH INCRG AMTS OF SUNSHINE
HELP BOOST TMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
FOR SAT NGT/SUN...MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRNT
PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. HI PRES THEN BLDS INTO THE SE U.S. BY SUN
AFTN WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SUNNY
SKY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO MON WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL TROF OVR THE E HALF OF THE CONUS AND
SFC HI PRES SLIDING OFFSHORE. HI TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LO TO
MID 70S.

FOR TUE/WED...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AND WEAK SFC FRNTAL BNDRY
WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LEADING TO A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT BUT EITHER WAY NOT EXPECTING A LARGE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTM. HI TEMPS BOTH DAYS STILL IN THE LO
TO MID 70S WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. SCT-
BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH DECKS GENERALLY 2-5K FT AGL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON IN LIGHT E-NELY FLOW. SFC WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MORE FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH CALM
TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG. STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT LITTLE
DISPERSION MAKES FOG MORE LIKELY AT THE ONSET. HOWEVER...BY EARLY
THURS MORNING...IFR STRATUS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. A PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW IN NE NC...INCLUDING KECG...THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
MAY RESULT IN AN EARLIER ONSET OF IFR STRATUS BEFORE WINDS BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN FOG. WHILE AREAS OF
FOG ARE ANTICIPATED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO NOT SEE WIDESPREAD
IFR...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AT THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...DID
TREND TOWARD IFR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KRIC.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE
THURS...RESULTING IN MORE DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO ANTICIPATE MORE FOG AND STRATUS
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP ALONG WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE NRN-MOST COASTAL ZONE...NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 10 PM EDT FOR 4-5 FT SEAS. NE WINDS AROUND 15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT HAVE RESULTED IN 5 FT SEAS AT BUOY 44009.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE THIS EVENING. WILL RE-EVALUATE THRU
THIS EVENG AS THERE IS A CHANCE SEAS STAY UP ALL NIGHT THERE. WITH
WEAK HI PRES OVR THE NE/MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THU/THU NIGHT...NLY
WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL CONTINUE. SEAS AGAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO 5 FT (BUT
MOSTLY 3-4 FT) THRU THIS PERIOD. NEXT COLD FRNT APPROACHES ON
FRI...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE SE LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS MAY BLD TO
5-6 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE COLD FRNT WILL
CROSS THE WTRS BY SAT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRNT
SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS






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