Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 180113
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
913 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through the
remainder of the week with temperatures gradually moderating.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Big bubble of cool air parked right on top of Va this evening.
Skies clear with temps dropping through the 40s since sunset.
Noticed dew points have crept up into the 40s as well. Quick
look at some of the 00Z data suggests readings drop to between
34 and 37 degrees over the Piedmont, upr 30s-lwr 40s elsewhere.
Although frost is possible in areas away from the water, best
chcs remain west of I95 where current frost advsry will be
maintained.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region Wednesday thru Friday as
the airmass gradually moderates. Sunny/clear and dry conditions
will continue. Highs Wednesday range from 65-70F followed by
highs Thursday of 70-75F. Highs Friday will reach the mid 70s
for most places. Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the
40s. Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 40s inland to
the low/mid 50s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure gradually pushes off the coast over the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to moderate with sky conditions no
worse than partly sunny. Much disagreement in the models by the
first of next week with respect to the arrival of the next cold
front. ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS with its deeper trough
aloft and a potential sfc low developing along the coast. Will
show chance PoPs Monday/Tuesday, then another potential cool
down by the middle of next week. Highs Sat-Mon in the mid-upr
70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows Sat nite 50-60. Lows Sun
nite in the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows Mon night in the upr 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the region tonight into this weekend
providing dry wx with a mostly clear sky and mainly light winds.
The next cold front will affect the area Mon and Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure continues to push into the region and the gradient
along the coast continues to weaken along with the gradual
ending of the cold advection. This all spells the weakening of
the wind fields. So while the NE winds continue, but they will
continue to diminish in intensity. Seas are also dropping as
well with the relaxing wind field. So with this package will
drop the sca headlines across the Lower Ches Bay, Currituck
Sound and the 2 northern coastal zones. The remains sca flags
will continue through 00z tonight and Midnight, but conditions
may improve so that the advisories can be dropped early.

The high becomes centered over western and central Virginia
tonight and the high remains entrenched over the region through
the remainder of the week into the weekend. There is a weak
front that tries to move through the northern waters on Friday
afternoon, which would turn the winds to the nw briefly and may
kick winds up to the 10 - 15 kt range, but otherwise expect
light winds and seas from Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for
radome repairs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ESS/TMG
EQUIPMENT...AKQ



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