Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 191034
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
634 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass through our area later today, but
dry conditions will prevail due to limited moisture. Another
area of high pressure will then build in from the south and west
Friday into the upcoming weekend, resulting in continued dry
and mild conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few patches of high clouds tracking through the region this
morning.  Weak cold front to track through our region later
today and this evening with the low level pressure gradient
tightening. Little if any moisture associated with the front.
Low level winds will increase due to the tightening pressure
gradient aiding in mixing, along with a mostly sunny sky. Breezy
south to southwest winds can be expected and highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Modified cooler air builds into our region from the north
tonight and Friday as low level winds shift to north and
northwest. Lighter winds tonight along with a mostly clear sky
will help temperatures fall into the 40s but some upper 30s
northern areas.

North to northwest winds could be breezy Friday and there are
indications that a considerable boundary layer thermal gradient
hangs up across our area with the colder air in northern areas.
The north to northwest winds and cold advection should limit
warming across our area. So, even the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT could see temperatures on the cooler side of guidance. Highs
Friday in the mid to upper 60s but near 70 southern areas and
lower 60s northern areas.

The cooler air retreats north Saturday as upper ridging builds
in from the west. More sunshine and increasing warm advection
will help temperatures reach the lower to mid 70s in most areas
but around 70 northern areas. Saturday night lows will be in the
40s most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term portion of the forecast begins mild and dry for Sunday
into at least early Monday. Then, gradual cooling and a trend toward
wetter conditions look probable for Tuesday-Wednesday, although
there are significant timing differences resulting in a low
confidence forecast in exact timing of best rainfall chances.

For Sunday-early Monday, strong deep layer ridging will be slowly
moving off the eastern seaboard, as a trough digs across the central
CONUS, while a potent PV anomaly across southern Plains/Gulf Coast
region briefly closes off. This should allow for fair conditions
Sunday-early Monday for our region, along with above normal
temperatures. Some areas of fog/low clouds may be tough to erode in
some river valleys both Sunday and Monday mornings. Highs both
Sunday and Monday should reach 70-75 in valleys, with 60s across
higher elevations. Sunday night should be mild, with lows mainly in
the mid 40s to lower 50s.

As the trough continues digging southward across the Plains, the
southern PV anomaly is expected to begin opening up and lifting
northward. There remains some uncertainty as to the degree of
phasing between these two features, and also the speed at which the
trough digs into the Plains, with the 00Z/19 EC slowest, and
GFS/GEFs and GEM quicker. Have sided with a blend at this time,
since the EC seems to have slowed considerably from its previous
cycles, and would prefer to see more consistency with future cycles
before committing to such a slow solution.

Have introduced some showers to NW areas for late Monday afternoon,
with chances increasing from W to E Monday night into Tuesday night.
Have indicated likely PoPs for Tue-Wed, with the expected frontal
passage sometime late Tue nt or Wed. Ample moisture from both the
Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic combined with a possible slow and
negatively titling trough axis approaching from the west signal the
potential for a slow moving narrow cold frontal rainband with
locally heavy rainfall.

Should the slower ECMWF prove correct in its timing, it is possible
that little if any rain occurs until perhaps late Wed or beyond, so
given that current forecast is a low confidence one, timing of
frontal passage and best chances for rain are likely to change over
time.

Temperatures should remain above normal at least through Tuesday,
with highs well into the 60s, if not warmer. Lows Tue nt/Wed mainly
in the 50s except 40s for the Adirondacks. For Wed, highs should
reach the 50s and lower 60s, but could be much warmer should the
slower 00Z/19 ECMWF prove correct.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard today. A weak
cold front will move across the TAF sites tonight.

Any fog/low clouds should erode shortly after 13Z/Thu, followed
by VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period, 12Z/Fri.
Just occasional high/mid level clouds expected tonight as the
front moves through.

Winds will be light/variable to calm through 13Z/Thu. South to
southwest winds will increase later this morning into the
afternoon, with sustained speeds of 8-15 KT, with some gusts of
20-25 KT possible, especially at KALB due to funneling/enhancement
through the Hudson River Valley. South to southwest winds will
decrease slightly to 5-10 KT after sunset, and should shift more
into the west toward and especially after 06Z/Fri as the weak
cold front moves through.

Outlook...

Thursday Night-Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
South to southwest winds will gust to around 25 mph today....

A weak cold front will pass through our area later today, but
dry conditions will prevail due to limited moisture. Another
area of high pressure will then build in from the south and west
Friday into the upcoming weekend, resulting in continued dry
and mild conditions.

Minimum RH values today and Friday will be 35 to 50 percent. Rh
values will increase to around 80 to 100 percent tonight.

Winds will become south to southwest this morning increasing to
10 to 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph this afternoon. Winds
will shift to the west at 5 to 15 mph tonight. Winds Friday are
expected to be north to northwest around 15 mph and there could
be a few gusts to 20 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No precipitation is expected through at least the weekend
thanks to persistent high pressure, with river/stream flows
remaining at normal to below normal seasonal levels.

The next chance of rainfall arrives early next week, as a
widespread rainfall is possible associated with a slow-moving
frontal system. It is much too early for specific details, but
some heavy rain may occur in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
frame.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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