Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
FXUS61 KALY 301441
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1041 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
A low pressure system and its associated cold front will
cross this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system. High pressure
will remain in control through early Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1040 am EDT...A cold front continues to approach from
western NY and the eastern Great Lakes Region this morning. The
prefrontal sfc trough ahead of the cold front continues to move
east across New England. The showers have exited the forecast
area...but a continuous cloud band extending northeast along the
East Coast from the Carolinas continues to impact locations south
and east of the Capital Region and southern VT.
Sfc dewpts continue to be in the 60s ahead of the cold front...and
some destabilization will occur with the NAM indicating SBCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. The deep shear /0-6 km/ is in the 30-35
kt range. Some multicells or a multicell line may fire from the
Capital Region...southern VT...and the eastern Catskills south and
east btwn 2-5 pm. The latest HRRR indicates the best activity will
be south of the Capital Region in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT.
Some locally heavy rainfall is still possible with PWATS in the
1.25-1.75" range. Gusty winds will be a threat and perhaps a
rogue severe or two with 50 kt or greater winds. The limiter is
weak mid level lapse rates...and perhaps limited time for
southern NY to destabilize. The marginal risk looks fine for this
afternoon from SPC...and the POPS were retooled for this
afternoon. Highs will generally be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A
few mid 80s will be possible in the Hudson River Valley.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Well folks, this will be my last AFD I will ever issue. It is hard
to believe the time has come for me to retire. It has been a
pleasure serving the public and community since April 4, 1995, the
first day I worked at Albany.
The actual cold front still does not look to clear our region until
the evening hours tonight, perhaps with a stray shower. However,
most if not all the forcing and deep moisture should be gone by this
time so only low or slight pops from the Capital region southward.
Drier and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to settle back
into the 50s across most areas overnight, with lows around 60 in the
immediate Capital region and further south. A light breeze should
preclude the formation of any fog, even with a partly cloudy sky.
Tuesday and Wednesday both look like great days as high pressure
builds over us from southern Canada. H850 temps look to cool to
around +12C. With good mixing, we are still looking for highs
slightly above normal, but dewpoints lower to the 50s. There looks
to be ample sunshine each day. The wind will be northwest 5-15 mph
on Tuesday with a few higher gusts, light and variable on Wednesday.
Look for highs around 80 in the valleys both days, lower to mid 70s
higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the 50s.
Thursday will start out dry. The 00Z GFS brings QPF to much of the
region by late in the day, while the 00Z European (ECMWF) and
Canadian models are slower keeping the day dry. We lean with the
drier solution so we kept Thursday dry as well with some increasing
in clouds and humidity as a south breeze picking up to 5-15 mph.
By Thursday a weak cold front and a weak upper trough approach
possibly bringing us some showers. However, the 12Z ECMWF bring very
little QPF Thursday night as most moisture from this system looks to
get robbed by what will be lift from Tropical Depression Bonnie
which is forecast to slide of the mid Atlantic coast and not impact
Lows on Thursday night look to be around 60.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term looks somewhat unsettled as all models indicate a
broad trough will replace the ridge that has been over us. However,
there discrepancies between the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. The GFS is
much more aggressive developing a deeper trough with a cutoff low
over the Great Lakes, meandering to our region. This setup look to
bring a rather wet pattern over our region during this time frame.
The ECMWF is more progressive, keep the trough a bit flatter
initially, eventually developing a cutoff low further north over
southern Canada. While not completely, this solution brings less
rain to our region as the good forcing remains mainly north of the
While the ECMWF often turns out be more accurate, it is too early to
completely rule out the wetter GFS solution so for now, we took a
middle approach. Either way, pops are warranted for Friday as some
sort of the low pressure system/mid level trough looks to approach
our region. If the ECMWF solution is correct, Saturday could turn
out dry, although the GFS lingers showers over our region. For now,
went slight chance for pops on Saturday.
By Sunday another disturbance associated with a still deepening
trough approaches, so chances of showers look reasonable. We
continue with slight chances of thunder as well.
Temperatures during the extended period look to be close to
seasonable levels for early June, perhaps trending a little below
normal. This will translate to highs in the 70s and lows mainly
in the 50s.
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Batch of light to moderate rain was impacting KPOU-KPSF which should
quickly move east of these areas around 14Z. Here is where flight
conditions will be reduced to a period of MVFR with a narrow window
of IFR. Otherwise, for KGFL-KALB a mainly VFR to high end MVFR
conditions this early morning. However, some IFR cigs are likely
at KGL prior to 14Z...and a tempo was used here.
As the day progresses, cold front will be approaching. Latest
mesoscale models point toward a sct-bkn band of convection to evolve
with mainly locations just to the south and east of KALB where we
will place TEMPO groups. For the other locations, a VCSH at this
time as we will monitor trends closely.
Winds will generally be southerly with a slight shift toward a
westerly component at speeds 10kts or less. As frontal passage
occurs, a light westerly wind should evolve through tonight.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Scattered showers today and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms.
However much of the day will be rainfree. RH values will remain
elevated. A south wind will become southwest to west later on this
afternoon, 5- 15 mph.
A cold front will cross the region through this evening, allowing a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels.
Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with nearly full recoveries
each and every night. It will be a bit breezy on Tuesday with a
northwest wind 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph. The wind will
be light and variable on Wednesday, south 5-15 mph on Thursday. The
wind each night look light or calm.
Some localities received up to a couple of inches of rainfall on
Sunday but that was the exception not the rule. Average basin
rainfalls were generally a quarter inch or less. Large rivers were
not affect much by the rain.
More scattered showers today and again some of these could very
locally heavy. They could produce some ponding and maybe some urban
minor flooding but not real impact is expected on rivers and
With the passage of the low pressure system dry weather will return
Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with the dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chances
for rain will return late in the week and for the weekend as a low
pressure system approaches.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.