Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 291034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AFTER THE MORNING MIST/FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS DISSIPATES. A FEW- SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
     UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR
LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z AND PERHAPS AFT 06Z AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








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