Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 052331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE EARLIER. STILL LOTS OF
CLOUDS...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES VERY SLOWLY
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S. A NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.
THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

A LARGE AND CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINED SITUATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION IS BEING REINFORCED
AT THE SURFACE BY A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE NE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY...WILL
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST FLOW IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SO NOT MUCH
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WON/T BE ABLE TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR MOST SPOTS...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO PIVOT BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING OVER OUR REGION...AND AS A RESULT OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND DEFORMATION...AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS NJ/NYC AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING AND REACH INTO THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILL REGION BY LATER FRIDAY MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD START OUT DRY...AND PERHAPS WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...BUT ALL AREAS LOOK TO SEE A PERIOD OF RAINFALL FOR
FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REGION...SO THE BEST INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TOTALLY CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER OUR
AREA...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THANKS TO THE
DRY MORNING...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS WILL ONLY WIND UP WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO SIT AND SPIN OVER NORTHERN
VIRGINIA FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AS THERE MAY FINALLY
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY SAT AFTN.

THE UPPER LEVEL WILL FINALLY START TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY THANKS
TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY EVENING...AS THE FLOW
BECOME S-SW. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 40S. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THANKS TO THE APPROACHING SFC COLD
FRONT FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT LOOK TO CROSS ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.  BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W-NW AND BECOME GUSTY...WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE. SKIES SHOULD FINALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE BREEZY WITH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS. LOWS WILL DIP TO 40-45 IN THE
VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE PARTY SUNNY AND BRISK ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
FALLING A LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL... 60-65 VALLEYS...50S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION DURING
TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
TUESDAY THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TO SLIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...OR JUST TO ITS SOUTH. WAVES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURES ARE FORECAST TO RIPPLE ALONG IT BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME THAT AT THIS POINT WILL BE HARD TO TIME. IT
WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN FALL OF THE TIME DURING THIS TIME FRAME EITHER.

SINCE WE LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS FRONT...AND
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THREATS...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER
50S MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MOST CIGS AT THE TAF SITES
TO REMAIN IN THE VFR THRESHOLD GENERALLY IN THE 3500-4000 AGL RANGE.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KPSF WHERE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS CIGS MOSTLY
IN THE MVFR RANGE BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY PUNCH INTO THE VFR
RANGE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z/FRI...WITH CIGS
VARYING MAINLY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE. THEN...A
STEADIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD
FRIDAY MORNING...IMPACTING KPOU AND KPSF AFTER 14Z/FRI...AND KALB
AFTER 16Z/FRI. AT KGFL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD BE
MAINLY AFTER 18Z/FRI. ONCE THE RAIN DEVELOPS...VSBYS AND CIGS COULD FALL
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A LOW MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KPSF.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE E TO NE TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW EVENING GUSTS TO 20KTS AT KPSF AND STAY THAT WAY
ON FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS (NOT REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS).

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EACH DAY. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...RH VALUES
LOOK TO DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERS CLOSE TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
WILL BE DRY...A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...AND
SOME MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR MONDAY.

TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A HALF
INCH...WITH SOME HIGH TERRAIN /ESP IN THE CATSKILLS/ SEEING CLOSE
TO AN INCH. WITH VEGETATION CONTINUING TO GREEN UP...THIS RAINFALL
WON/T CAUSE ANY ISSUES FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND ONLY VERY
MODEST RISES ARE EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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