Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 230728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





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