Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 310526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE ENTIRE REGION TO
OUR EAST. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 IN EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...AS THIS AREA NEVER REALLY
MIXED THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE DEWPOINT SHOULD LOWER A LITTLE IN
THESE AREAS...BUT MUCH SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE DIPPED WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S...AND EVEN UPPER 50S.

PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR WHERE WINDS REMAIN NEAR CALM...ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BREEZE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
MANY AREAS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION NOSES INTO THE REGION. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS LOOK WARM IN THE 80S. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
50S AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR SATURDAY
WITH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO CLOUDS AROUND AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT MAY NOT BE IDEAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR...ALTHOUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FOR SAT NIGHT...SO CLEARING
LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS LOOK TO FALL IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL COMPROMISE OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...DIVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE
SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRUSH OUR REGION LATE INTO THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING
(MAINLY STAYING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA). WE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWESTWARD...NO POPS SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND EVENTUALLY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PACK MORE OF PUNCH
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

IT LOOKS AS IF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (OR SERIES OF COLD FRONTS) LATE TUESDAY AS
H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET PUSHED FROM TYPICAL MID TEENS VALUES
OF EARLY AUGUST...TO ABOUT +6C! THIS COOLING WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL  SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...THERE STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

BY THURSDAY THE 12Z ECMWF STILL INDICATED A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...PRODUCING A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS IDEA IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS
SO FOR NOW...ONLY INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (SLIGHT).

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WITH SEASONABLE READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
COOLEST SPOTS WELL AWAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TOUGH CALL TONIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH AND HOW DENSE FOG WILL FORM.

DEWPOINTS WERE STILL AROUND 70 AT KPOU WHILE THE OTHER SITES WERE
WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S. THERE WAS NOT MUCH OF A BREEZE LEFT AT ANY
TAF SITES.

THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM ALY`S 00Z SOUNDING LOOKED TO BE
IN THE LOWER 50S...A LITTLE LOWER THAN BEFORE. STILL WITH A MOIST
GROUND THE CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE WIND...FOG COULD STILL FORM

FOR NOW...WE KEPT IFR FOG IN THE KGFL BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 08Z. AT
KALB... WE DECIDED ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG SHALLOW SO (MIFG). THE TOUGHER CHALLENGE WAS
AT KPSF SINCE THEY DID NOT PICK UP MUCH RAIN. WE CONTINUED WITH
IFR FOG AT 06Z THERE AND AT KPOU...STILL WENT WITH MVFR FOG AT 08Z
WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINT REMAINED ELEVATED.

CONFIDENCE IN THESE SCENARIOS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE SO
AMENDMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PLEASE CHECK BACK IF YOU
PLAN TO FLY OUT OF ANY OF THE AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THIS
MORNING.

DUE TO A BREEZE PICKING UP...WE END ALL FOG BY 11Z FRIDAY...WHICH
SHOULD LEAVE US WITH VFR DAY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AS WELL
AS FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 5KTS OVERNIGHT.
THE WIND WILL THEN GO BACK TO WEST OR WEST
SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS
BY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY AT KALB)...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MANY AREAS SAW A
WETTING RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. A FEW MORE LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AFTER RH VALUES RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO RETURN TO AROUND 100
PERCENT ON FRI NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON
SAT AFTN WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LATE AFTN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE ENTIRE AREA SOON.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ISN/T
EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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