Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 031054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT-BKN
CI/CS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG PER METARS AND EARLY MORNING SUNRISE
WEB CAMS. 06Z GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/S/ YET COVERAGE REMAINS IN
QUESTION. HRRR REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL YET THE MAV MOS POPS CAME
IN HIGHER. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS PER
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

PREV DISC...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOWER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE ALONG
THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE
WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS AND REGIONAL WEB
CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO THICKEN. LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AND FOR SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE OFFER QUITE A
DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS
OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR.
THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS
UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE
NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES
SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE
H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES 20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC
COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND PER THOSE
SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP LOADING
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA


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