Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 200421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A THIN BLANKET OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO
COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE
THIN...THEY ARE PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
OCCURRING TONIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW
20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
DOMINATES AND FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST.

AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
TONIGHT WILL BE...LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE REGION. UNTIL THEN MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S EXPECTED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY
BREEZE DEVELOPING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6 DEGREES OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH
STRONG W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLE COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS SOME
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR FRI
NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY LATER TODAY. WE ONLY EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES BY SUNSET...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT KALB AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 60 TO 85 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.