Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 051117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CLASSIC VALLEY FOG SCENARIO PLAYING OUT FIRST THING THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS
TRIBUTARIES FOGGED IN BUT SO FAR FOG BANK HAS STAYED WEST OF KLSE.
EXTENT OF FOG MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RULE RESTRICTIONS BUT WILL HOLD
TOUGH WITH VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

MORE CIRRUS SPILLING IN FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OUT WEST
TODAY...AND AS CONVECTION GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TODAY...COULD SEE
MORE OF THAT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. STILL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

COULD SEE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE IN WEST AND SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD WORK AGAINST THIS. BOUNDARY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST MENTION OF IT AGAIN IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA



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