Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 022012 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
212 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM TONIGHT.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SO FAR STAYED WELL SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SRN NEVADA WILL
MOVE NORTH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR CWA.  THE TROUGH...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP A COUPLE DEGS TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH EXITS NEWD.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL THEN LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SRN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY LIGHT QPF BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SO POPS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SEND A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STICKING TO A DRIER SOLUTION WITH PRECIP MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MORE MODELS ARE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS...INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM...SO HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST POPS HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IN GENERAL. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SORT OF COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH OF A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND A CUT-OFF LOW FROM COASTAL CALIFORNIA MOVING NE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS IS ALSO
DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AFTER
03/00Z...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AFTER 03/18Z TO INCLUDE MOST
MOUNTAIN AREAS. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/
     MONDAY ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP



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