Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 300245
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING TO NRN OREGON...JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA.  OUR CWA HAS
REMAINED FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDER DRIER WSWLY FLOW AROUND A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.  THE RIDGE HAS ALSO BROUGHT
WARMER TEMPS AND AS IT AMPLIFIES EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COME INLAND MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ALSO IN CURRENT FORECAST.  NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF A KBNO-KBKE LINE UNTIL 06Z.  AFTER 06Z ALONG AND NORTH OF A KBKE-
KMYL LINE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUTSY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL
ID MTNS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM EAST-CENTRAL OREGON...INTO
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT. MILD START TO SATURDAY UNDER HIGH
CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS BY AFTERNOON. DRIER
CONDITIONS WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE DRY
AIR WILL ACT TO LESSEN COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RUN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN NEAR 90F.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT INLAND ON MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES. FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JT



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