Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 280301
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
901 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT FOR A MUCH CALMER NIGHT THAN THE LAST. THERE ARE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT. WILDFIRE
SMOKE PRODUCING LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EAST AND NORTH OF KMYL.
SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10 FT
MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-20 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...AIR WILL REMAIN SMOKY IN BAKER COUNTY CLOSEST TO
WHERE FIRES ARE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IMPROVED AIR QUALITY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY
MORNING AND WESTERN IDAHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN OUR ERN ZONES IN IDAHO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY.  PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ERN OREGON SATURDAY MORNING AND WESTERN IDAHO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COOLING TEMPS.  MAIN ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN NRN ZONES
WHERE WE HAVE FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SRN
HARNEY AND MALHEURE COUNTIES AND MOST OF OWYHEE COUNTY SHOULD STAY
DRY.  TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW ERN ZONES IN IDAHO TO GET
WARM AGAIN SATURDAY /ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FRIDAY/ BUT
OREGON ZONES WILL COOL DOWN SOONER WITH HIGHS THERE ONLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S.  OREGON WILL ALSO BE WINDIER THAN IDAHO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 30 MPH COMMON VS ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH
ON THE IDAHO SIDE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY SKIRTING
THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA AND TRACKING NNE. GUIDANCE WAS CONTINUING
TO SHOW LITTLE PRECIP OVER THE CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT...
RECENT RUNS ARE SUGGESTING OTHERWISE. MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED AROUND
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAPPED...WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING ONE
INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE FRONT ITSELF AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO HINT AS
PRECIP...THE FORECAST STILL HAS SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE IDAHO
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAGIC VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE OWYHEES.
NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OFF THE COAST AND THE AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE APPROACHING LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. NOT EXPECTING FROPA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION SO
WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE TWO. EXPECTED TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....SP
AIR STAGNATION...AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC



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