Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA


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