Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 241548
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
948 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE STEENS MOUNTAIN TO GARDEN VALLEY. A DRIER
AIR MASS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE ENTERED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THE DRIER AIR MASS AND CLEARING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS
WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS MOST OF
SE OREGON/SW IDAHO EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS MORNING...WEST AND NORTH OF KBOI AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR. EAST AND
SOUTH OF KBOI VFR WITH AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST AND NORTH OF KBOI IMPROVING WITH RAIN ENDING AND
CLOUDS DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH. VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHES
OF VALLEY FOG BY 06Z. EAST AND SOUTH OF KBOI CONTINUED VFR.
SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS THIS MORNING AND 5-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS



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