Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 270252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
852 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Remaining showers continue to progress eastward and
weaken as their associated low pressure moves into Wyoming. Relatively
benign conditions expected as a a ridge works to move over the
area. Light wind, and a return to seasonal temperatures anticipated.
As the ridge amplifies over the Pacific Northwest, temperatures
will be 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, with generally dry
conditions. Models hint at a bit of afternoon instability over
higher terrain, but any shower development should be weak, if it
occurs at all. Forecast remains on track with no alterations


.AVIATION...Mostly VFR with isolated MVFR showers and
thunderstorms south central Idaho this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms ending by 04z. Patchy fog and stratus possible in
the mountains valleys and the Western Magic Valley Saturday
morning. Surface winds: Generally 10 kts or less, with some gusts
to 25 kts near stronger showers/thunderstorms. Winds aloft near 10
kft msl: North/Northwest 10-15 kts.

Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies and light winds both
Saturday and Sunday.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...Upper low moving east of
Idaho this evening. A few showers and thunderstorms on the far
western edge of that low will bring showers and thunderstorms to
Idaho areas, mainly east of Boise through the early evening.
These should diminish rapidly by sunset. Forecast area left in
weak northerly flow on Saturday, which should be drier and near
normal temperatures. By Sunday a ridge pushes in from the west
for even more warming, taking temperatures about 10 degrees above
normal. Could be a few cloud buildups over the mountains both
Saturday and Sunday, but seems doubtful that any of them would
intensify enough to bring precip, even to the highest peaks.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. Upper level ridge axis is
expected to be straight overhead Monday and into Tuesday.  This will
keep conditions dry and temperatures well above normal. The GFS and
ECMWF have come into a bit better agreement of a trough moving on
shore late Tuesday and splitting the energy northward and southward
on Wednesday.  The will leave little impacts for the CWA, as a
slight chance of showers in the mountains may be the worst of it.
And even still, the ECMWF is notably drier than the GFS.
Temperatures are expected to moderate during this time but may
remain above normal.




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