Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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329
FXUS61 KBOX 301105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY
WHICH MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS W NEW ENG WITH MOSUNNY SKIES IN THE EAST.
EXPECT NUMEROUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
TODAY WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AROUND 850 MB
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUN. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 60S...BUT SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



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