Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBOX 111754
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1254 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.  BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1250 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS E MA
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER AS DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
TEENS. FURTHER W...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD W NEW ENG WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO. RADAR
SHOWS SCT LIGHT REFLECTIVITY MOVING INTO W NEW ENG BUT LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIMITING THIS TO JUST SCT FLURRIES. AS THIS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO E NEW ENG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL END. STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS. WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH DEVELOPING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 850T FALLING TO
NEAR -20C. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.  OF MORE INTEREST...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RARE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BUT WITH 850T STILL AROUND -14C.  THIS
YIELDS 850/SST DIFFERENTIAL OF AROUND 22C AND GENERATES BETWEEN 400
AND 500 J/KG OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPE.  MOST OUR MESO MODELS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST BY 00Z
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD
NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN
POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS
ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A
BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE
THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S
THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF
ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION
WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY
TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT
ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER
SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE
SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N.

OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF
VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85
TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS
20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD
AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD
WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

TUE AND WED...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E
MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO
25-30KT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS EVENING...THEN CLEARING. W/NW
GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SOME
ACCUM LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION.  TIMING UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  THIS A RESULT OF VERY COLD AIR WITH
850T DROPPING TO NEAR -20C PROMOTING EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. GALE WARNINGS ALL WATERS EXCEPT STRONG SCA
HEADLINES BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY.  FINALLY...ADVISORY FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR EASTERN MA WATERS/CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME
SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
CLIMATE...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.