Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 011134 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Continued trend of 06Z TAF package:  VFR conditions
and generally light winds expected over the next 24 hours. High
clouds associated with a weak mid-level disturbance now moving
into Coahuila state will be present, with a ceiling likely through
the afternoon hours. After the disturbance passes, high clouds
should scatter out or even clear. Light and variable winds
expected for the nighttime hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): No significant changes to the
short-term forecast. Mid-upper level ridge has flattened and
"dirtied up" considerably with high-level cloudiness. Some of
this cloudiness is likely being enhanced by a weak mid-level
disturbance currently seen on water-vapor imagery to be moving
into SW Coahuila state. This disturbance is forecast to rotate
across S. Texas today but will have little impact other than the
increased mid-high cloud cover. GFS time-height sections indicate
that thick cirrus will persist through around prob
won`t hold down afternoon max temperatures much. Expecting lower
90`s across the Mid-Lower Valley, though afternoon dewpoints from
the upper 50`s near MFE to the mid-60`s around BRO should still
make for fairly comfortable outdoor conditions. A weak surface
pressure gradient with a surface high over NE Texas will keep
light NE-ENE winds in place.

Later today and into Sunday, ridging aloft just upstream will
rebound behind the aforementioned shortwave and ahead of a deep
upper low moving into the Pacific NW...leaving a re-asserted
northerly flow in place. Precipitable water values remain low, at
approximately 1.2- 1.5" across the CWA through the period, so no
precipitation is expected. Saturday night low temperatures should
be similar to what we`re trending toward tonight: mid-60`s in the
northern ranchlands to about 70 near the coast. Sunday`s high
temps are expected to run 2-3 degrees above average for early

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): High pressure across
the region, under a mid level ridge, will keep dry weather in
place for most of the week. Although moisture will increase slowly
through the period, with a mix of clouds and sun, north flow aloft
will prevent deeper moisture from taking hold. However, there
still will be isolated shower activity over the Gulf.

Late in the weekend, a storm system will pass across the Northern
Rockies and deepen in the northern plains. Ridging over Texas will
shift to the east as a deep mid level trough associated with the
storm system ejects into the southern plains. The storm system
will propel a cold front south along the leading edge of the
trough, with the front reaching West Texas on Tuesday, on its way
toward the RGV, with an expected arrival late Thursday or Friday.
The GFS brings the front through Friday during the day. The ECMWF
appears to be a skosh faster, with a FROPA at Brownsville near
dawn, and is a little stronger with postfrontal north winds. The
ECMWF has a better defined line of convection with the front, and
higher pops. Went with a conservative mention of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for now.

Temperatures through the week will persist above normal, with a
slight cool down due to the front, but nothing significant since
postfrontal temps overall will still remain near to slightly above

Now through Sunday...Buoy 42020 reported ENE winds around 8 knots
gusting to around 10 knots with seas of 2-3 feet and a period of 6
seconds at 2 am CDT/07 UTC. Light to moderate northeast winds and
low seas will continue along the Lower Texas coast through Sunday as
surface high pressure prevails across Texas.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Broad high pressure will continue
to lie over the Northwest Gulf, producing light to moderate east
winds and low seas. Winds will veer to southeast over time, as a
storm system deepens over the northern plains, with winds becoming
moderate Tuesday through Wednesday. The stronger winds will add a
foot or two to low seas, increasing them to moderate. A front will
move into Texas on Wed, with marine winds shifting to northeast late
Thursday into Friday as the front pushes through.




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