Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 211755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE REST OF TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALLOWING FOR SE
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS OVER THE TERMINALS. THE SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO TODAY VFR CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING TODAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS INTACT WITH HOT TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A BIT OF LIGHT GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AT HRL...
DESPITE A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD AND SOME WIND....RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. VSBY AT HRL WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYLIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE LOWER RGV BY MID MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING JUST
BEFORE NOON...BUT KEPT OVERALL POPS SILENT FOR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A STUBBORN H5 HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SAME AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND MORE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WINDS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MUTED AS DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...WITH PWAT SINKING BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE.

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY MID
MORNING AS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY. A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING...BUT POPS ARE SILENT
FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S EAST
TO THE CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE WEST OF U.S. 77 AND INLAND TO THE
UPPER VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110...AND
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...A FEW LESS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A BIT MORE SUN AS RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH GULF SHIFTS WEST. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALLOWING RESIDENT RIDGING OVER THE GULF TO
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MIMIC THOSE OF
THURSDAY...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND
THEN WEAKEN AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ON TOP OF US FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL SEE A FEW SURGES OF MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALBEIT NOT THE
GREATEST OF CHANCES. PWATS LOOK TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF EARLY MONDAY THEN INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TUESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE DECREASING PWATS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALL IN ALL DIDN`T PLAY MUCH WITH THE GOING POPS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORM INITIATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER...LOW 100S ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS IN ZAPATA
COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. SHAVED
A DEGREE OFF HIGHS HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING AND CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH THE BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY WHERE NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS...AS WELL AS ON THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE GULF BUT THE CONVECTIVE
SITUATION FOR THE MARINE AREAS LOOKS MUTED OVERALL IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS AND SEAS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST TOWARD EAST TEXAS...OR CLOSER
TO OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THIS WEEK SO
FAR...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM MODERATE
LEVELS SATURDAY TO LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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