Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 272212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
612 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 604 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPDATE TO CANCEL THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT A DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
DRYING WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FROM ABOUT
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z BUT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. IT WILL
BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG...WHILE ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MAYBE EVEN SEVERE
STORMS DEPENDING ON TIME OF FROPA. STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...
BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY PERIOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE
70S. THE NIGHTS WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MINS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

KMSS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

KSLK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP
FROM THE SW THROUGH 20Z, THEN EXPECT ONLY VCSH.

KPBG/KBTV...THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING/03Z THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

KMPV/KRUT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING, SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z-20Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH 00Z AND VCSH
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING
AROUND 08Z BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 10/11Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH
MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WITH SOUTH
WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE OPEN WATER AND
ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...VERASAMY/MUCCILLI


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