Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
958 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Surface cold front crosses our region bringing scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms today. Behind this front,
drier conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected from
Friday through the weekend.


As of 958 AM EDT Thursday...Quick update to previous forecast
to adjust PoPs for late this morning through the afternoon.
Seeing some scattered shower activity increasing in areal
coverage across northern New York in response to another pre-
frontal trough swinging in, with the best potential vorticity
still northwest of the region along the real cold front.
Question still remains as to how much clearing we`ll see in the
wake of the pre-frontal trough ahead of the front, and how much
instability can develop to produce convection. At this time,
still hanging on to the idea that some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop this afternoon, but we`ll
continue to monitor and assess the 12Z NWP when available.

Previous Discussion...Only a few isolated showers remain
this morning after scattered rain showers through much of the
overnight. Cold front will push across the area this afternoon
along with upper level shortwave energy, and more showers with
isolated thunderstorms are expected, mainly 15-21z. There is
small potential for some gusty winds in any stronger storms, but
feel this threat is pretty small. There is some decent low
level shear and jet dynamics. Lapse rates are only marginals and
models do indicate potential for some CAPE in excess of 1500
j/kg in the Champlain valley this afternoon. But, will we have
enough clearing following departing showers this morning, that`s
the big question.

After 00z showers will quickly end with shortwave energy
departing along with surface front. Cooler drier air will move
into the area for tonight and Friday with surface high pressure
ridging. Should be enough cloud remaining tonight to avoid any
significant fog formation. Cold air advection behind departing
cold front will keep temperatures a bit on the mild side for
Friday with max temps only in the mid 70s.


As of 339 AM EDT Thursday...Heading into the weekend the weather
will be quiet as a 500mb low dives south of the North Country.
We`ll be locked in with light cold air advection and high
pressure building into the North Country. There will be some
clouds across southern Vermont but as you move north the cloud
cover will be decreasing and mostly clear conditions should be
expected across the International border. Temps will stay below
normal with highs on Friday only in the upper 60s to low 70s and
overnight temps in the upper 40s to low 50s.


As of 339 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure continues Saturday
night and as the high crests overhead conditions should be
favourable for some fog development in the protected river
valleys. The sensible weather will be quiet and dry over the
weekend and heading into the workweek.

Its not until mid week until we see the next chance for showers
as a coastal low pressure system tracks up towards New England.
That system will merge with energy from a far northern stream
system and brings a frontal system with a chance for some
scattered showers across the North Country Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Guidance at this point is all over the place
in how the coastal low develops. Given the intensity differences
I stuck with a bit of continuity with the forecast as to not
window wash and just mentioned slight chance to chance showers.
Temperatures will be trending back to near normal through the
weekend and should be close to normal as we start the work week.


Through 12Z Friday...Just some isolated showers remaining across
the area this morning. Only SLK had lower ceilings overnight and
all sites are now VFR. Scattered showers are expected today as
cold front crosses the area. Some scattered MVFR visibilities
are possible in showers. Winds will veer from southerly to
westerly and pick up a bit this afternoon. Showers should be
ending by about 00z across the area. Will need to monitor
possibility of fog formation overnight, especially in areas that
receive ample rainfall today.


Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.




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