Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 261429
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1029 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Expect dry weather for much of the day today with above normal
temperatures and plenty of sunshine. An upper level disturbance will
move across the North Country tonight and with increasing
moisture...the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will
exist. The Memorial Day weekend will then feature above normal
temperatures...more humid conditions...and the threat for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1029 AM EDT Thursday...Previous forecast is in excellent
shape with really the only update needed was to adjust hourly
temperture trends going through the late morning.
Weak ridging aloft and at the surface should keep most of the
North Country dry today. There will be some high clouds this
morning...otherwise expect a good deal of sunshine along with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. These readings are about
10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Eventually
the flow aloft backs to the west and southwest as a shortwave
trough moves into the region. This along with increasing moisture
suggests the potential for some isolated convection late in the
day across parts of northern New York.
For tonight the shortwave trough continues to move across the area
and moisture deepens over the area for increasing chances of showers
and a few thunderstorms. Shortwave trough moves east of the area
after midnight and this should help decrease the areal coverage of
the convection from west to east after midnight. Not expecting
anything strong or severe with rainfall amounts generally less
than a quarter inch. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s...which are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Warm air advection on Friday behind
warm front which continues to move northward. Should have showers
with some thunderstorms during the afternoon and very warm max
temperatures. Cape values will be in the 1500-2000 range,
especially in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Increasing
PWAT values through the day also with possible elevated mixed
layer reaching our forecast area as well. Max temps should be in
the upper 80s to around 90, our hottest day of the year yet.
Showers and thunderstorms will die down Friday night and
temperatures will remain mild, mainly mid 60s. Region will remain
under warm ridge on Saturday and another warm day is on tap,
perhaps even a tad warmer than Friday, upper 80s to around 90.
Once again will have Capes reach over 1500 by Saturday afternoon
and think there may be some showers and thunderstorms once again.
Without a significant surface feature storms will mainly be fueled
by warm temperatures creating instability.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Generally more of the same for the
extended portion of the forecast with above normal temperatures
continue and chance for afternoon convection most days. Will
remain in warm unstable environment from Saturday night through
early Monday. Finally have a surface feature crossing the area
Monday in the form of a cold front during the afternoon and
evening. This feature brings the highest pops and have likely
mentioned at this time.
.AVIATION /15Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12Z Friday...Expect VFR conditions through much of the
period...especially this morning through late afternoon with only
some high clouds expected. An upper level disturbance will move
into the area tonight and this will enhance the potential for some
showers and a few thunderstorms. The showers should move into
northern New York after 22z and across Vermont after 01z before
ending from west to east after 06z. Ceilings will be lowering
after 06z and most locations should experience MVFR ceilings
between 06z and 12z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period.
Outlook 12Z Friday through Monday...
12z Friday onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a
few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday