Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 031752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMIMISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SISSON


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