Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 291141
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front continues to move across the North Country
this morning with some clouds and a wind shift to the northwest.
These clouds will dissipate by midday with breezy northwest winds
at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts expected. Temperatures will
warm into the 70s today and cooler into the 40s and 50s tonight
under clear skies and light winds. The next chance for scattered
showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday
afternoon...associated with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 731 AM EDT Monday...Minor update to decrease clouds across
the Champlain Valley and increase hourly temperatures based on
current conditions. Building surface high pressure with dry air
aloft will result in mostly sunny skies. Still expecting clouds
over the mountains with breezy northwest winds as mixing
increases. All covered well in current forecast.

Water vapor shows large area of subsidence/dry air behind short
wave energy moving into northern NY. This dry air will quickly
overspread the region this morning with mostly sunny skies
developing...except for some fair weather clouds over the
mountains. A spot shower early this morning is possible along the
boundary across eastern and southern VT...but current radar is
quiet as best dynamics shift to our southeast. Area soundings show
good mixing this afternoon with steepening low level lapse
rates...supporting surface wind gusts to 25 mph or so...with good
momentum transfer. VAD profiles at 925mb to 850mb shows winds have
shifts at KTYX and KCXX indicating low level cold air advection.
Progged 850mb temps are expected to fall between 10-12c by 18z
today...but with current temps still in the mid 60s to lower
70s...expect afternoon highs on the warmer side of guidance.
Thinking mainly 70s to lower 80s.

For tonight...1026mb surface high pressure over the northern Great
Lakes shifts into our cwa...with clear skies and light terrain
driven winds anticipated. These ideal excellent cooling conditions
will support low 40s slk/northeast kingdom to m/u 50s Champlain
Valley near Lake Champlain. Upper 30s are possible at slk...but
will depend upon areal coverage of fog. Based on upstream obs
thinking areas of fog are likely in the climo favored areas
between 06z and 12z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 411 AM EDT Monday...Quiet weather to start the short term
on Tuesday with surface high pressure in control of regional
conditions. Averaged 925 mb thermal progs support blended model
max temps from the mid 70s to lower 80s under sunny/partly sunny
skies.

Pattern begins to change by Tuesday night, and especially into
Wednesday as a seasonably deep H5 upper trough and surface cold
front dig southward into the northeast. Better moisture initially
off to our northwest Tuesday night, so just token slight/very low
chance pops far north late/toward morning. Surface front then
progresses south through the area on Wednesday with better moisture
advection, low level convergence and modest instability. Thus the
idea of solid chance pops for showers/thunder still look on track,
especially given expected fropa during diurnal heating maximum.
Temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 411 AM EDT Monday...Most of the long term will feature our
first modified autumn-like airmass of the season as upper trough
digs south into the area and lifts out east and north over time.
Scattered showers/storms still a good bet Wednesday evening as
front departs east and south, then variable clouds into Thursday
with perhaps a few light mountain showers/sprinkles given modified
cold pool aloft will be advecting into the region. Temperatures
will trend below normal, though remain pleasantly mild with lows
in the 50s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Looking further out, generally quiet and dry weather is expected
from Friday onward into next Saturday as modified Canadian airmass
builds atop the area. Temperatures will remain pleasantly mild with
lows in the 40s/50s and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Slowly
building heights and warmth then expected from Sunday onward into
early next week as upper ridge becomes reestablished across the
eastern conus with mean background flow trending
south/southwesterly.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Lingering clouds this morning with brief
period of mvfr cigs are possible at slk/rut thru 14z this morning.
Otherwise...deep dry layer will produce mostly sunny skies this
afternoon with vfr conditions. Winds becoming breezy after 15z
with some gusts between 20 and 25 knots anticipated...before
dropping off around sunset this evening. Any low clouds will
transition into some fair weather cumulus...especially in the
mountains...before clear skies develop by evening. 1026mb high
pressure building directly overhead will result in light winds and
clear skies with some patchy fog likely at slk/mpv. Have mention
1sm in br after 07z with potential vlifr conditions possible with
1/4sm fg. some brief periods of br is possible at mss.

Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Friday...Surface high pressure with
vfr conditions prevail on tuesday as fog/br lifts by 14z. Next
surface boundary with scattered showers/storms arrives on weds
with some brief mvfr cigs/vis possible in the heavier convective
elements. Mainly vfr thursday and friday with developing ridge of
high pressure...with early morning fog possible with lifr
conditions at mpv/slk between 08-12z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Taber



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