Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 191954
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain as the controlling weather feature
across Vermont and northern New York during the next 5 to 7
days. Hurricane Jose will remain south of New England, but
onshore flow from coastal areas will result in periods of low
clouds and a chance of light showers for eastern Vermont
tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, conditions are
expected to remain dry with temperatures well above seasonal
averages for mid to late September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...The quiet weather conditions will
continue through the near term with a fairly narrow but strong
high pressure ridge anchored over the region. This ridge will
keep the brunt of the effects from Jose southeast of the
forecast area. There is a low chance a few showers will make it
into the far southeast part of the forecast area tonight so will
hold on to the 30 pop there. Any rainfall which occurs will be
light. Otherwise, models still indicate patchy fog, mainly in
the favored areas, although there could be light fog in the
Champlain Valley.

Winds are expected to turn northerly at 10-15 mph on Wednesday
as they respond to the cyclonic circulation of Jose. Overnight
lows will be above normal again tonight, in the 50s to lower
60s. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the 70s
areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...12z guidance suite all in agreement
that the high pressure ridge will keep us high and dry.

Wednesday night: We`ll have a little bit of a northerly wind
across the region, perhaps staying up 10-15mph in the Champlain
Valley due to some channelling down the valley. Could see a
little bit of patchy fog in the protected valleys, but in
general look for mostly clear conditions and continued mild.
Lots of 50s across the region, except around 60f near Lake
Champlain.

Thursday: With 925mb temperatures around 17C, and plenty of
sunshine, temperatures will top well into the 70s, with a few
lower 80s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. Nil PoPs.

Thursday night: winds weaken, so some excellent radiational
cooling looks to set up. Expect the cold locations, like Saranac
Lake, could drop into the upper 30s. For the rest of the area,
look for upper 40s to lower 50s. Patchy fog should make a return
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...12z longer term guidance (GFS, ECMWF,
Canadian) are in excellent agreement through Sunday. Some
differences start to crop up after that, namely in how the
models handle the interaction of the massive ridge and Hurricane
Maria as it should be coming up the east coast next week. Given
the confidence through the weekend, the only deviation I made
to the model blend was to increase high temperatures over the
weekend toward the warmest guidance and to yank out some
spurious small chances of precipitation. Bottom line -- expect
dry summer condition to continue through Monday. 925mb
temperatures will increase a degree or two each day through
Monday, topping out around 20-22C Sunday and Monday. Given full
sunshine, it`s not out of the question that we touch 90F in a
few spots (especially parts of the Champlain Valley) each
afternoon. At this point I only went as warm as 84-88F both days
which was based on some of the warmest guidance I could find. I
suspect guidance will be playing a little catchup given the
level of warmth for this time of year. Come Tuesday the GFS
suggests a backdoor front tries to come in from the northeast,
with cooler temperatures and a small chance of showers.
Meanwhile the 12z ECMWF suggests the ridge remains in place, but
the remnants of Jose spreads some moisture northward, resulting
in a small chance of showers.

Given all of the tropical activity, first of all -- always
follow the NHC forecasts. Secondly, Jose and Maria and their
possible interactions with each other and how they feedback into
the large scale ridging in place can not accurately be predicted
typically beyond roughly 5 days (Sunday). So thus the
confidence in the forecast starts decreasing rapidly after that
point.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Most TAF sites should be VFR through
the TAF period. The exceptions will be KMPV and possibly
KRUT/KSLK. Expect KMPV will see a continuation of the effects of
the marine layer and IFR/MVFR vis/cigs overnight along with
scattered showers nearby. KRUT/KSLK may also see IFR-MVFR
conditions overnight. Expect all sites to return to VFR during
the day Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NRR
NEAR TERM...NRR
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...NRR



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