Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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630
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL



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