Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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984
FXUS61 KBUF 081440
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER AIR...INCLUDING
SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR MAPS ARE `BUSY` THIS MORNING AS A COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
LETS START WITH THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...THAT BEING THE COASTAL
STORM WELL OFF VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE...WHILE MAKING NEWS HEADLINES
FOR ITS EFFECTS ON THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IT WILL ATTEMPT TO THROW SOME ATLANTIC BASED
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL GENERALLY
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER CUT BACK ON ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO OUR REGION.

THE SECOND STORM ON THE MAPS THIS MORNING IS AN EXPANSIVE BUT
OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT...AND BEHAVING MORE
LIKE A CUT-OFF LOW. THE MAIN JET IS NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
MEAGER 60KT JET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
TO OUR WEST OVER OH. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST AS IS SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND LET INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CREEP INTO
ONLY FAR WESTERN NY LATE TODAY /CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM AT CLOUD
LEVEL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...THE AIR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE TOO `WARM` TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN SNOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN INSTEAD...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A
LITTLE WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF WILL BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IF THAT...AGAIN OVER FAR WESTERN NY
/CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/.

DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 EAST OF LK ONT.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF
NORTHERN OHIO WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO. MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...BUT WHILE THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAKE LIGHT
PCPN MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS WHOLE SYSTEM SO QPF
(IE. SNOWFALL) WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
SOMEWHAT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF LIFT. IN FACT...PARTS OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION MAY NOT `MEASURE` AS THAT AREA WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING. THE LOWEST POPS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THAT PARTICULAR AREA.

ANY MIXED PCPN EARLY IN THE EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO JUST LIGHT SNOW
AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL THROUGH THE 30S...AND IN
SOME AREAS...INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WILL
OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING WEAK
ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL PARENT LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY DISSOLVE INTO A
WEST/EAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHAT REMAINS
OF THE ORIGINAL LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING WILL MAKE TIMING THE
PERIODS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO COME INTO PLAY.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON TUESDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE OPENING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. FORCING
AND MOISTURE IS WEAKEST ON TUESDAY...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID OR EVEN UPPER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT ACCUMULATION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE COLD AIR GROWS DEEPER...ALLOWING FOR
MORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE ERIE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND STEADILY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH
JUST VERY MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS MAY
REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE
UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

BACK TRAJECTORIES USING THE GEFS SHOWS THAT THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
COMING FROM THE BAFFIN ISLAND/CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO REGION. H85 TEMPS
IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION WERE NEAR -25C AS OF LAST EVENING...AND
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARDS...THE
COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER FROZEN HUDSON
BAY.

GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY AND MINS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE
ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA /CHAUTAUQUA CO/ LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH



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