Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 040311
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION NEAR OUR AREA HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH OUR CWA STILL DRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THESE TRENDS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH
ONSHORE INTO THE NIAGARA REGION SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. A
PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR EARLIER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 03Z THE MAIN CONCERN AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LIFR FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK TROUGH AT JHW...WITH LIGHTER FOG/BR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THIS SHOULD MAINLY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AN AREA OF STRATUS AND LOWER VSBY IS LIKELY
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND VERY CLOSE TO IAG. ELSEWHERE
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR
HIGHER FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK



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