Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 301955
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



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