Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 140302
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
802 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WHEATLAND COUNTY.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN AND AROUND HARLOWTON...BUT THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS HAVE PASSED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. GILSTAD

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

SPRING-LIKE DAY IN PROGRESS WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS
AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR
CWA. FORCING FROM DYNAMIC UPPER TROF IS SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY AREAS FROM SHERIDAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH STRONG/DRIER DOWNSLOPING W-NW
WINDS ACROSS OUR WEST AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
STRONGEST WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WERE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT...AND STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE PUSHED
INTO WY AND OUT OF OUR CWA AS OF 245 PM. MIXED WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR SOUTHERN WHEATLAND COUNTY WHICH IS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM. WINDS
AT HARLOWTON CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

ACTIVE AND WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES...ONE TOMORROW
AND THE OTHER MONDAY...WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WIND WITH
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS REMAINING IN PLACE. LOWER ELEVATION TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TYPE TO BE RAIN...BUT OUR
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HARLOWTON MAY
APPROACH 60 MPH GUSTS AGAIN TOMORROW...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW FOR MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MIXING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SUGGEST NEARLY 60 KTS OF
700MB WIND ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT A VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR WESTERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...PER THE
PACIFIC FLOW OF COURSE...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL REMAIN
PARTICULARLY MILD GIVEN THE WIND AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...


TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WILL BE THE
NEW NORM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESS DOMINATES
THE WESTERN US.

FOR TUESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS AND
ROUNDUP.

MAIN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. RIDGING
RETURNS ON FRI WITH DRY WEATHER. RMS/JKL

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF
KBIL THROUGH 04Z SUN. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z SUN SOUTHWEST OF KBIL...EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST GAP WINDS WILL IMPACT KLVM THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. RMS/JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/053 039/057 038/064 039/061 043/061 038/060 036/058
    13/W    23/W    32/W    10/B    12/W    21/N    11/B
LVM 034/050 040/053 041/057 041/058 041/059 036/053 034/053
    24/W    34/W    42/W    10/N    12/W    32/W    22/W
HDN 031/055 033/057 034/063 032/063 036/064 032/063 030/062
    23/W    25/W    32/W    10/B    02/W    21/N    11/U
MLS 031/050 031/051 031/057 031/057 037/060 038/057 032/057
    32/W    15/W    24/W    10/B    01/E    21/N    11/U
4BQ 030/050 031/050 030/060 031/062 036/065 035/059 030/060
    32/W    25/W    33/W    10/B    01/B    21/N    11/U
BHK 029/045 028/046 028/048 028/050 035/055 036/050 031/051
    42/W    14/W    23/W    10/B    01/B    21/N    11/U
SHR 028/049 030/052 031/060 032/060 036/061 031/058 029/057
    33/W    25/W    42/W    10/B    11/E    21/N    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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