Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 061839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELMARVA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BRIEF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE PEA-SIZE HAIL
IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE ATLANTIC BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN US. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
AREA WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS CONTINUING TO
VERTICALLY DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS ATTM. WITH CUMULUS SHOWING WELL DEFINED EDGES AND
CLOUD TOPS FROM RADAR PUSHING THE -20C LEVEL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY 500 MB READINGS REMAIN AROUND -22C
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CSRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA AREA. SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CSRA TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE PEE DEE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS LESS THAN OPTIMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL DIRECT A WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS DISPLAY A FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS DO DEPICT A BAND OF MOISTURE BRUSHING MAINLY
THE NORTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN H85 WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW AND ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. THE MODELS
HAVE LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BUT INDICATE
EVEN LESS MOISTURE WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. IT SHOULD BE DRY.
IT SHOULD BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGING AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY SURFACE RIDGING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LIMITING MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN A FLAT PATTERN. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE MOS HAS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WITH
WITH A FEW JUST WEST OF CAE/CUB. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO EXPAND OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM CAE/CUB
TO OGB AND NORTHWARD. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT CAE/CUB/OGB AS
SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINAL. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SHOWERS DUE TO FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 7 KFT...HOWEVER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. WITH SUNSET SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BY LATE EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND
15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.