Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 050837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
437 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER FROM EVENING CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND A FAIRLY WORKED OVER AIRMASS. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...TRAPPED
BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ANOTHER LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA TODAY AND CLOSE OFF AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW BY TONIGHT.

THE BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEAST. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS CONDUCIVE
WITH LESS DRY AIR ALOFT AVAILABLE COMPARED TO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGES OVER THE PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND BRIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. RELATIVELY DEEP EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD PROVIDING
INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.7 INCHES AND 1.9 INCHES. THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH SUN/MON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND EXPECTATION OF MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS
SLOWING THE DAILY WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST REGION IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE COUNTRY
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC MID WEEK. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING FEATURES
DUE TO THE JET STREAM REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE 90S
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA AND COULD RESULT IN INCREASED POPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE TERMINALS. UPPER IMPULSE AND APPROACHING BACK DOOR FRONT LEADING
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE CHANCE TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

FOG POTENTIAL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ON THOSE ITEMS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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