Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 181713
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
113 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area during the rest of the
week. It will remain dry with a warming trend as the air mass
modifies. Moisture will return early next week associated with a
cold front. This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will remain dry over the forecast area with the surface
ridge extending from off the Mid Atlantic Coast southwestward
through the Carolinas and Georgia. Strong net radiational
cooling conditions will occur tonight. Much of the GFS, ECMWF,
and NAM MOS and in-house radiation scheme support lows in the
lower and middle 40s. Some of the COOP MOS has lows in the
middle and upper 30s at the normally colder locations. Patchy
frost may occur at the colder locations. We do not believe frost
will be widespread enough for a frost advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface and upper ridge across the eastern CONUS through
Friday. Temperatures will gradually warm to above seasonal
normals by Friday. Skies will remain clear with beautiful fall
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper-level trough will move into the plains. The eastern CONUS
ridge will shift off the coast resulting in a slow increase in
moisture across the region over the weekend. Models indicate a
possible cut-off low along the Gulf coast region by Monday with
moisture increasing across the Southeastern States ahead of
frontal boundary in the Tennessee River Valley. Large spread in
the ensemble pop guidance but support for at least chance pops
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above normal over the weekend
with near normal late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the terminals. High
pressure and dry air will remain in control through the TAF
period. Winds will be northeast at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
and light tonight. Fog is not expected because of the dry air
mass. The NAM and GFS MOS along with the SREF guidance indicate
continued VFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
are expected except an increase in low-level moisture in an
onshore flow may lead to widespread stratus and fog Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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