Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 201527
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1027 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry weather is forecast through Tuesday with
unsettled weather from Tuesday night through the end of the
week. Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal this
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the
north through tonight. The upper ridge axis will also be in the
area. The pattern supports continued dry conditions. Satellite
trends support some high cloudiness especially tonight as the
upper ridge shifts a little farther eastward. Wind will be light
with the ridge in the area area but mainly easterly near 10 mph
during the time of greatest mixing this afternoon. Light wind
and nocturnal cooling may help support fog late tonight but it
should be limited by the dry air mass plus high cloudiness
limiting net radiational cooling. The MAV and MET MOS plus SREF
guidance were not indicative of fog. The temperature guidance
was consistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge and surface high pressure will move east
to the coast overnight. Dry conditions will continue with
overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50.

A southern stream trough will close off over the Northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Tuesday. An onshore flow will bring increasing
moisture to our area with precipitable water around an inch
across the Piedmont and CSRA. Some of the models are indicating
a chance for showers Tuesday afternoon. Although we cannot rule
out isolated showers...the bulk of precipitation should remain
west of the forecast area through sunset. Temperatures will
continue above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico will move east...
crossing the Florida Keys Wednesday night into Thursday. Deep
moisture coupled with weak short wave energy will bring a
chance for showers to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
NAM model brings a weak frontal boundary across the area on
Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both hold a moist easterly flow
over the region with surface low pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico. As the upper low and surface low track toward the
Bahamas...short wave energy will exit the area and the chance
for showers will decrease Wednesday night.

Rising heights will spell increasing temperatures for the end
of the week. There will be a chance for mainly diurnal
convection Thursday and Friday. It appears the best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be Friday night into Saturday
with the passage of a cold front. High pressure and drier air
will return to the region for Saturday night through Sunday.
Temperatures through the long term will continue well above
normal. Thursday and Friday should be the warmest days with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Surface high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the
north through tonight. The upper ridge axis will also be in the
area. The pattern supports continued dry conditions. Satellite
trends support some high cloudiness especially tonight as the
upper ridge shifts a little farther eastward. Wind will be light
with the ridge in the area area but mainly easterly near 10
knots during the time of greatest mixing this afternoon. Light
wind and nocturnal cooling may help support fog late tonight but
it should be limited by the dry air mass plus high cloudiness
limiting net radiational cooling. The MAV and MET MOS plus SREF
guidance were not indicative of fog.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....Moisture associated with an
onshore flow may help bring widespread MVFR or IFR conditions
Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.