Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 072316
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
616 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016
An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area
Thursday. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through
the area Saturday. The coldest air of the season so far will be
associated with this air mass. The ridge will be off the coast
Sunday and temperatures will begin to moderate.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High low-level moisture trapped below a strong inversion has
resulted in cloudiness across the southern portions of the
forecast area. The models indicated continued high low-level
moisture tonight. Some increase in wind ahead of the approaching
cold front favored stratus over fog. Moisture should remain too
shallow for showers. Followed the guidance consensus for the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough will move across the Ohio Valley Thursday pushing a
cold front through the forecast area. Moisture is limited with
the system, and latest guidance blends yields minimal if any POPs
for our FA. It will take a little time for the denser colder air
behind the front to make it over the mountains into our FA, but
expecting gradual infiltration of cold dry air into our FA late
Thursday through Friday. By late Friday night, the center of the
Canadian continental polar high pressure air mass will build
towards the southern Appalachians, staying just north of our FA.
This could maintain a little wind for portions of our FA and call
into question the extent of best radiational cooling conditions.
However, due to cold and dry nature of the air mass, feel
comfortable continuing to slightly undercut guidance min temps for
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold dry high pressure to build into the Carolinas Saturday, with
zonal westerly 500mb flow on Saturday with mostly clear skies
should allow for slight warming compared to Friday but
temperatures will remain well below normal.
The next storm system will develop over the Plains states and
western Ohio Valley region on Sunday as shortwave energy tracks
across the midwest with a surface low developing and lifting
northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Sunday evening. This
will push another cold front towards the region Sunday night into
Monday bringing the next chance for rain. There remain some
differences among the medium range models with the timing of the
front but rain will be possible Sun night into Monday.
Temperatures will moderate Sunday as the surface high shifts
offshore and a southerly flow returns.
Some timing uncertainty with the next system that could affect
our region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Used guidance blend.
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cool and moist air associated with the wedge pattern has lingered
with high low-level moisture trapped below a strong inversion.
Stratus and fog may become more widespread tonight with continued
high low-level moisture combined with noctural cooling. Some
increase in wind ahead of the approaching cold front favors
stratus over fog. For the most part, MVFR cigs will be the rule
during the overnight hours. Moisture should remain too shallow
for showers. Followed the NAM and GFS MOS for the wind forecast
with generally light wind expected through tonight with northwest
wind around 10 knots developing Thursday morning.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Breezy conditions may be associated with a cold front Thursday.