Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 160250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY...THE ERN MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAFS SITES...ESPECIALLY THE CSRA...BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO BOTH AGS/DNL FOR THAT
PERIOD. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
ALL TAF SITES VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









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