Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 011146
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT CREATING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT AM FORECASTING
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS BY 00Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING RAIN TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SMALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL FROM AROUND SUNSET THROUGH JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...THEN MODELS BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
GONE CATEGORICAL WITH THE POPS LATE TONIGHT...THE BEGIN PUSHING
THE PRECIP EASTWARD AND TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. QUITE A BIT OF DRYING WILL
OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BY THAT
TIME. BIGGER ISSUE ON MONDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS SHOWING VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING...THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE FROM THE
JET WILL CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS OF OVER 20 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS TO
OVER 30 MPH...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT
LEAST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE SHORES...BUT WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE JET CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONGER WINDS STILL BEING
ABLE TO MIX DOWN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LAKES. PLAN ON LETTING
LATER SHIFTS PIN DOWN BEST TIMING THOUGH. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THEN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER HAVING
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT AND FOR PORTIONS OF
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FROM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. STILL SEEMS TO BE LITTLE CONSISTENCY
IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL RAINFALL PATTERN AND TIMING FROM RUN TO
RUN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. HOWEVER EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS DO TRY
TO BRING SOME PRECIP THROUGH ON THURSDAY...THEY SEEM TO BE TRYING
TO NOW FOCUS MORE OF THE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEY TRY TO
BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER SHORTWAVE...BEFORE PUSHING EVERYTHING EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE PRECIP FOR THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY WILL BE RAINFALL. THEN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...THEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING...AND WITH VERY COLD CORE
OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS TIME INDICATE MUCH OF THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING...WITH
SOME MOISTURE IN THE BEST SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO AS THE COLUMN
COOLS OVERNIGHT...RAIN COULD CHANCE TO RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW.
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT IS
ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...AND QPF AMOUNTS WOULD BE
LIGHT. THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH POPS
AND TEMPS THAT FAR OUT...WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THE LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ALSO THIS SYSTEM IS 5 DAYS OUT...SO MUCH CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED BY 04Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTENING AT LOW LEVELS AND LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING BY 04Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND VISIBILITIES IN RAINFALL ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBILITY
OF IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AT 8 TO 12 MPH AND
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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