Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 172358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
658 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

High pressure will shift off the Carolina coast this afternoon.
There will be increased moisture in the southerly flow on the
backside of the offshore high Monday. Additional rain chances
throughout the week with a weak front across the area.


Surface high pressure continues to shift offshore while upper
level ridging builds over the southeastern states, downstream
from a cutoff upper low near southern Arizona. A plume of
higher moisture extending from east Texas through the Gulf coast
states into the Carolinas is supporting pockets of light rain
moving into the forecast area, from weak isentropic lift. The
lowest 5kft remains dry so what light rain that is falling is
generally struggling to reach the surface as little more than
sprinkles. However, there have a been a couple of observation
sites that have reported a hundredth or so of rainfall so have
adjusted pops a bit to account for the light precipitation.

There will be a break through the early evening and then
possibly another round of light rain that may impact the lower
CSRA but again no significant rainfall expected. Widespread and
increasing clouds should limit radiational cooling this evening
and overnight so expecting much warmer min temperatures tonight
compared to last night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.


An upper level disturbance falls apart as it moves into the mean
ridge axis over the Southeast U.S. A very dry antecedent
airmass over the Carolinas will also inhibit chances of
precipitation with this disturbance.

A second stronger upper level trough is forecast to impact the
region starting on Wednesday. A warm front should be located near
the North Carolina/South Carolina border with overrunning rain.
Temperatures will be well above normal south of the front.


A strong disturbance moves off the Carolina coast Wednesday Night
with overrunning rain coming to an end. High pressure aloft rebuilds
Thursday into Friday with dry weather and well above normal

A cold front is forecast to sweep into the region this weekend with
a deep and broad upper trough across much of the U.S. next weekend.
The surface front may become parallel to the upper flow and stall
somewhere near the region early next week.


VFR conditions through the early morning hours...then
restrictions expected through the end of the period.

Clouds continue to thicken and lower across the region with
further lowering expected overnight. Currently all terminals
remain VFR...however some observations show high end MVFR cigs
in the area. Conditions will remain VFR through the early
morning hours when increasing moisture will lower conditions to
MVFR at AGS/DNL around 06z and into the other terminals around
12z. Chance of rain remains too low to include through
17z...then have included VCSH through the end of the period. Winds
through the period will be southwesterly at 5 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Boundary will remain stalled across
the region with rain and associated restrictions at times
through Wednesday.




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