Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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173
FXUS61 KCLE 060541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO
MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FIRST A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE SHOWN A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF DELMARVA COULD MOVE BACK INTO THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE CLEARING...DROP IN
WINDS...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
DECOUPLING ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP
TOWARDS THE DEW POINTS AROUND 40F. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME REDUCED
VSBYS (3-4SM) IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT FOG
WORDING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON THIS UPDATE HAVE REDUCED
CLOUD COVER...REMOVED POP IN THE EAST...AND LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
GKJ TO YNG AND STARK COUNTY. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN THUNDER JUST
SOUTH OF YNG. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THESE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LAKE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE COOL
STABLE MARINE LAYER ABOVE LAKE ERIE. DIURNAL HEATING WHICH HAS
HELPED FUEL THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET SO AREAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
ONE HAS INFLUENCED TODAY`S WEATHER AND WILL SHIFT TO THE DELMARVA
REGION FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND MAY BRUSH THE EXTREME
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM GKJ TO YNG BUT THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING AND THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA. STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH SIMILAR TIMING ON THE MODELS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 10-12C WHICH WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND
70 TO 74.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HAS A SMALL SHORT WAVE CROSSING NEAR NW PA WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLOW EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES DAMPENS OUT AND
STRUGGLES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE BLOCKING OF THE SPLIT FLOW.
DETAILS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE RESOLVED...BUT FOR NOW AGREED UPON
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND HOLD IN THE
VICINITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW CAN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT BETTER RESOLUTION FOR THE
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE THE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES. WILL RUN
HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL INTO OR EVEN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE LOCATED OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
THE OTHER OVER MANITOBA IN CANADA. ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAIN IN THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS. CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KCLE/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK ONLY IF WINDS CAN DECREASE ENOUGH AND ANY
CLOUD COVER REMAINS ABSENT AT ANY OF THESE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NON VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT IN THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE BIGGER INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE AS A
LINGERING TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN
UPTICK IN SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
BEYOND SUNDAY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY. WIND SPEED/WAVES
NOT AN ISSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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