Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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824
FXUS61 KCLE 261856
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
256 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will linger over the eastern Great Lakes
into late Tuesday. High pressure at the surface will finally
reach the area on Tuesday night before shifting to the East
Coast on Wednesday. A strong area of low pressure will move
across the northern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue a while longer as the latest in
series of short wave troughs cross the area. This feature is
showing up in the form of some light precip returns from
southern Lake Michigan eastward to NW OH. Expect this precip to
expand in coverage as the wave approaches this evening. Will
continue with a scattered precip mention all areas through the
evening hours. Coverage should be greatest downwind of Lake
Erie. Given the cool temperatures in the mid levels of the
atmosphere thunder is likely and small hail possible this
evening. Overnight things will begin to dry out from southwest
to northwest as high pressure over the lower Ohio Valley inches
toward the area. Troughiness will continue over the eastern end
of the area tomorrow morning so will likely continue to see
scattered showers downwind of the lake. Areas away from the
precip will likely see an increase in clouds late tonight as the
main trough axis moves over the area. The clouds will break up
in the west and south during the day with dry weather all areas
by 00Z Wednesday. High pressure will dominate Tuesday night with
mainly clear skies.

Temps will remain cool during the period with highs again
struggling to reach 70 degrees for highs on Tuesday. Have used
a blend of guidance temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday will be a good recovery day with the high shifting
east and southerly flow bringing back the warmer temperatures.
Weak ridge aloft/surface high will keep the area dry and mostly
sunny. A warm front will lift north Wednesday night and this
will bring in the higher dewpoints. The low will reach the
eastern lakes by late Thursday night, but the frontal zone will
hang up just north of the area. Models keep warm sector active
with mid level impulse for Thursday. Have maintained the likely
precip chances. Did not make changes for Thursday night, precip
chances will depend on the position of that front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The brief period of zonal flow will be ending Fri into at as the
next upper trough digs into the Upper Plains Fri and shifts east
across the Great lakes Sat thru Sun. The models then start to
diverge by Mon so the forecast is more uncertain by then.

The improving dynamics with the approaching trough will lead to a
good chc for shra/tsra Fri into Sat that will shift into mainly a
small chc for the east by Sun. Enough moisture appears to hang back
for Mon with another possible upper s/w approaching so will keep
slight chc pops going.

Temps should run fairly close to normal during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across NW PA and
far NE OH. Starting to see a few weak returns over NW OH. Still
expecting to see an increase in coverage later today and this
evening as upper disturbances rotate across the region. Will
give most areas a tempo mention of showers for a few hours. The
precip should be more persistent in NW PA and ERI will get a
period of predominate showers. Will mention some vicinity
thunder from CLE east as well. Precip chances will end from west
to east beginning around 03z. Do expect a period of MVFR cigs
late tonight and Tuesday morning as the main trough rotates over
the area. Westerly winds will continue to gust to around 20
knots through 00z and then diminish slowly overnight.

OUTLOOK...non- VFR in showers tonight into Tuesday morning.
Non- VFR possible again Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will leave the small craft as is. Winds should be somewhat less
tomorrow so do not think we will need to reissue. Have added a
mention of waterspouts for about the east half of the area for
tomorrow morning. This seems reasonable with the upper trough
still overhead and temps aloft as cold if not colder than they
were this morning.

Lighter and more variable flow Wednesday with high pressure
overhead. East half of the lake will shift onshore in the
afternoon. But overnight Wednesday night and through Thursday,
winds will shift to the southwest behind a warm frontal passage
and increase to 10 to 20 knots.

SW winds of mostly 10 to 15 knots should dominate Fri and Sat
turning more west to NW for Sun and Mon from the passage of a weak
cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ011-012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina/Oudeman/Adams



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