Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 302339
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO BACK OFF ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER AND NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT RIDGING. LITTLE
REASON TO THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT BEGIN TO DESCEND UPON THE AREA. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST COUNTIES.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS ARE RATHER LOW. THE  NORMAL COLD SPOTS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WILL
DROP DOWN TO THE MID 30S OR SO. FORECAST MINS IN THE UPPER 30S OR
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE THAT CLOSES
OFF AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WAY TO THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY COOL
ENOUGH TO MIX AND CHANGE TO SNOW...PERHAPS MIXING/CHANGING AS
QUICKLY AS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH CHILLY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NOT THE BEST EVENING FOR TRICK OR TREAT OR
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL.

THE NORTH FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE RELATIVELY WARM ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING JUST ABOUT ANYBODY COULD SEE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL
SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH SUCH A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT THE
SYNOPTIC SHOWERS OFTEN LAST LONGER THAN THE MODELS THINK. THE
NORTH WIND WILL PROVIDE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WILL KEEP RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MOST OF SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR THE I-75
CORRIDOR (NW OHIO). THE BAST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PERHAPS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. AS ALWAYS THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE GROUND IS WARM AND IT HAS TO SNOW HARD TO
STICK. WILL PUT IN SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND MANSFIELD
(AN INCH OR TWO).

IT WILL BE HARD TO WARM UP ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT
CONTINUE TO GET PRECIP. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND -9C
SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. LAKE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER NE OH/NW PA ALTHOUGH WITH ANY LUCK WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NW OHIO TO THE
UPPER 30S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WOULD BE
ACROSS NW OHIO.  MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AFTER THIS THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.  ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND TURN TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OH AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY MORNING AND FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE A STEP DOWNWARD WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF IFR...BUT THE
PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT.
THE SAME GOES FOR ANY SNRA MIX. KCLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY RAIN
THROUGH 06Z SAT. LOW CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR TOL/FDY NEAR
00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO JUST FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. SNRA MIX
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK W-NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING LOW INTO CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY...DRAGGING
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.  ONE THING THAT MAY KEEP WINDS
FROM REACHING GALES IS THE LACK OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING AFTER THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PASSED.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB




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