Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260738
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY REACHING
SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ACROSS IT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 8H HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE HAVE MOVED ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE
REGION WITH A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OCCURRING AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 4 AM SO
DID NOT START THE FORECAST WITH ANY MORNING SHOWERS.

WE WILL THEN WATCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY BUT BECOME AN MCS AT SOME POINT IN THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT LOOKS AS IF THIS MCS WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY OUTFLOW THAT DRIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER NW OHIO WHERE THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA WHERE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IS NEAR THE
LAKESHORE FROM EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ALL OF THESE STORMS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THE CHANCES
OF THIS OCCURRING ARE LOW SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND DYNAMICS IS LOCATED FURTHER TO
THE WEST.

PARTLY SUNNY TO MAYBE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH TO ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO AT LEAST BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MCS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT BUT WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR OUTFLOW THAT TRIES TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM
FRONT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
WITH A DECENT PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD. OUTFLOW/WARM
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. PINPOINTING ITS
LOCATION NOW IS VERY DIFFICULT WITH UNCERTAINTY OF THE PATH OF THE
SOUTHERN OHIO MCS. IN ANY EVENT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BE BACKED ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER INTO THE REGION. THE BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE REGION RAISES
CONCERNS FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR A TORNADO. HOWEVER THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW
FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. MAKE SURE TO
HAVE A PLAN IF A TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO
LIKELY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. IT APPEARS IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY THINGS OUT ENOUGH TO AVOID
SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL OVER THE REGION
AND STILL COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO
AND NW PA.

IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES. COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK TO THE THE 70S WEST...MIDDLE S60S ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL UPPER TROUGH STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW MOSTLY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

BY MID SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL START TO SEE SOME LOWER VFR
CIGS DUE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDS LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOTS SUSTAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDS ON THE LAKE VARIABLE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE LAKE
TODAY AND THEN THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE MONDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC






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