Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 080205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO BY
TOMORROW MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR ERIE TO MARION AND
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD. STILL A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAD TO ADD SOME LOW POPS
BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS. DRIER AIR IS ATTEMPTING TO SPILL
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO
DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60 ACROSS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
BEFORE STALLING...THEN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF NEXT
WAVE.   FOR NOW JUST LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE SOUTH AND SERN
COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND TIMING DIFFERS
SOMEWHAT.  ALL 3 MODELS TRACK THE LOW INTO CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS WET THRU THE PERIOD AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT THEN DRIFTS BACK SOUTH AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE INTO THE AREA AND STALLS SUN THRU
TUE. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA TO HANG AROUND EACH DAY THRU
TUE AND PROBABLY THRU ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN DOESN`T
CHANGE. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WITHING A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED OHIO TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY
STRETCHES FROM CLE BACK TOWARDS FDY. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH MAY AFFECT TERMINALS TO THE
EAST WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL
BECOME NW AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LAY UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THU
MORNING...THEN MIGRATE BACK NORTH AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT BY
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA THRU SUN WITH NON VFR
LIKELY TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NW
THEN NORTH THRU EARLY TONIGHT THEN TO THE NE WED MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR WED NIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS A FRONT SOUTH OF THE LAKE SLOWLY
DRIFTS BACK NEAR THE LAKE TO HANG OUT AT LEAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO
CHANGEABLE WINDS BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS
UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WINDS SHOULD
TEND TO STAY UNDER 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...ADAMS


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