Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 101805
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO THE SNOWBELT AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING AS A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. WEAKER
MULTIBAND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE BEHIND THE
PRIMARY BAND WHICH HAS MOVED ASHORE. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A
CATEGORY OR SO AND INCREASE POPS SOUTH OF THE SNOWBELT AS THE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING MORE IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING 12 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASE
INVERSION EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 5200 FEET NEAR DTX TO OVER 23000 FT
AT BUF WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF THE MODIFYING EFFECT OF ICE FREE
LAKE ERIE ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CU
FIELD DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INDICATING GREAT INSTABILITY. THIS MAY INDICATE
THAT THE OVERALL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BECOMING MORE
UNSTABLE AND WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ESPECIALLY ON DOWNWIND LAKE ERIE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING JUST NORTH
OF THE LAKE SHORE AND THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING EAST. WIND FLOW IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL FORCE THE BAND
TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE. EVENTUALLY A MORPHOUS
BLOB SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST. THIS IS WHEN MULTIBANDS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SINCE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUYAHOGA COUNTY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME FEELING
IS THAT THEY WILL SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EVENT. SO WILL HOIST THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR CUYAHOGA
COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN THIS IS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUYAHOGA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY THIS EVENING AS SATURATED
AIR FINALLY REACHES THE PREFERRED SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE GOOD
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED SO EXPECTED THE WORST OF THE
EVENT TO BE TONIGHT. LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY GETS INTO THE ACT LATER
TONIGHT BUT BY THAT TIME THE GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLING AWAY. HAVE FINED TUNED THE SNOW TOTALS IN THE WARNING
STATEMENT THAT JUST WENT OUT. AGAIN...THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE PERIPHERAL AREAS TO MAKE SURE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE
NOT NEEDED. RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND BY LATE IN THE DAY
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE UP THE LAKE FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT THE
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE SNOWBELT. SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST
IN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
850 TEMPS POSSIBLE GETTING TO NEG 25 OR COLDER. THIS WILL BE THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER LAKE HURON FETCH OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AIRMASS THIS
COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. HAVE
CONTINUE WITH THE FRIGID TEMPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
WINTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FEATURE A BIG RIDGE OUT WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEIGHTS RISE A BIT IN THE EAST BUT THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GO UP
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP. IT DEVELOPS AN EAST COAST LOW BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TAKING A SOUTHERN LOW AND BOUNCING IT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE EAST COAST BUT ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING AN EAST COAST LOW. THE CMC
ALSO HAS A SOUTHERN LOW BUT IT STAYS PRETTY FAR SOUTH. IN ANY
CASE...THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME WARM
ADVECTION SNOW...JUST NO CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNTS/DURATION YET.

CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK AND TRACK TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED TO NEAR NORMAL BY THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...TAKING A SOLID LAKE ENHANCED BAND AND BREAKING IT UP INTO
NUMEROUS PIECES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FOLLOWS. DURING
THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO
THE SNOWBELT OF NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR TOL/FDY TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECT ALL OTHERS TO REMAIN MVFR INTO THURSDAY. WINDS BECOMING
WEST TO WEST- NORTHWEST AND GUSTY TO 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NON VFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL BE COMMON ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND BECOME
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY BUT ACCRETION RATES SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ011-
     012-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-
     014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK


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