Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 250600
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
200 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
A weak cold front north of Lake Erie will sag south across the
lake Saturday morning. The front will stall across northern Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania on Saturday then drift back north on
Sunday as low pressure over Oklahoma tracks across the central
Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday. Another low will track
across the area on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and a even a few thunderstorms have developed near the
frontal boundary near the north shore of Lake Erie in the
evening. The showers have made some progress east-southeast
over the east end of Lake Erie but the front will likely wait
for the weak surface wave to ripple along the front during the
early morning hours, then the front will likely make better
progress southward. An outflow wind shift is possible at Erie
early this morning but the actual front will likely wait until
daybreak or shortly after with similar timing at Toledo. The
front will initially be shallow and the better upward motion
will exit with the surface low that I doubt there will be much
if any lightning. Temperatures are still warm and running above
guidance but as the wind lightens overnight we may still be
able to reach forecast lows by daybreak although there is a
distinct possibility that our forecast mins may be too cool. No
other changes for the overnight update.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Precip chances will continue to be a challenge during the
period. It looks like much of the area could remain dry both
Saturday and Saturday night. Precip chances will be mainly
confined to the western and northern ends of the area. Have
gone ahead and lowered precip chances most areas for both
periods. No longer expecting all day rains just passing showers
from time to time. The other challenge for Saturday is the
front which will move back south of the lake by midday.
Depending on which guidance you believe the front will be
through CLE between mid and late morning with temps falling
considerably behind this feature. Lows near the lakeshore will
likely occur by mid morning. Further inland it will be another
warm day so by 18z there could be a 20 degree or more
temperature gradient. Precip chances will finally advance to the
southeastern end of the area on Sunday as the surface low
crosses the western lakes. A front from this low will lift
across the area by the end of the day. Will go with high pops
and warm temps all areas. Sunday will also see the best chances
for thunder as surface dewpoints will be in the lower 50s.
Things will try to dry out from southwest to northeast on Sunday
night. Cannot rule out a few showers on Monday. It will again
be warm with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Precip chances
will begin to increase again Monday night as another low
approaches from the southwest. Lot`s of model differences with
that system and those can be dealt with later.
Have stayed on the warm side of guidance for highs.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rather fast zonal flow with progressive embedded cut off lows will
persist across the eastern half of the US during the period. A weak
system will be exiting the region Tuesday with a few lingering
showers over the eastern half of the CWA mainly in the morning. Weak
seasonably cool high pressure will build by to the north and produce
a cool northerly flow off of still chilly Lake Erie. The next
system will approach the region Thursday with some uncertainty in
timing and phasing of the northern and southern jet streams. The
ECMWF phases both streams into another major storm west of the
region while the GFS is weaker and slower with a more southern
track. In either case moisture will move into the region late
Thursday or Thursday night and last into Friday with showers.
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Conditions VFR across northern Ohio and northwest PA early
today. Restrictions however are just north of the area. Radar
a south moving boundary that just went through KCLE turning
winds northwest. Although the front is close, believe this is an
outflow boundary vs the actual front. Thus will keep conditions
VFR through the night. After 12Z guidance trends diverge with
the GFS suggesting widespread MVFR/IFR restrictions through the
day vs the NAM which shows restrictions mainly at KTOL and KERI.
Have incorporated trends of both with KTOL and KERI MVFR and
occasionally IFR through the day. Elsewhere will begin Saturday
VFR and gradually lower CIGS to MVFR through the day.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday night through Sunday night.
Non VFR possible again Monday night and Tuesday.
Small craft advisories are in place for the nearshore waters through
the evening for the frequent gusts around 25 knots. There will be a
drop in winds and waves overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes
with high pressure over eastern Canada. The frontal boundary over
the northern part of the lake will move south as a backdoor cold
front late tonight into early Saturday morning. This will keep rain
and cooler conditions over the lake. Northeast winds will strengthen
on Saturday afternoon as the low over Missouri deepens and moves
towards the Ohio Valley. Small craft conditions will likely develop
especially given the favorable fetch in northeast flow. Southeast
winds will develop on Sunday as the low lifts north of the region.
Conditions will continue to improve into Monday.