Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 222352 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
552 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Quick update sent to increase cloud cover by several
categories this evening...as thick/dense cirrus continues to
overspread the area...as upper level jet persists overhead.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 526 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...Update for 00z Aviation.

AVIATION...VFR across all of S TX for the next 24 hrs. Only some
cirrus thru the TAF period (thickening at times as a H25 jet
remains overhead). NNWrly sfc winds around 10 kts this evening
bcmg light overnight and eventually shifting more Erly by Tue
aftn.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Generally quiet weather is setting up for the short term period.
Cold front moved through this morning with a moderate northerly
flow. This led to some elevated fire danger conditions this
afternoon, but this should subside over the next couple of hours
as high pressure begins to build over the region. The ridge really
settles in by Tuesday and Tuesday night with mainly clear skies
(aside from some thin upper level cirrus). Winds will gradually
shift to the northeast and east during the day on Tuesday. Expect
minimum temperatures a few degrees below normal the next couple of
days generally in the 40s across the area. High temperatures
tomorrow will be right around normal in the mid 60s

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday Night)...

Surface high pressure will remain in control across the region for
the first day or two of the period. Temperatures remain on the
cooler side with northeasterly flow in place though we look dry.
Moisture begins to increase later on Thursday into Friday as the
ridging moves farther east-northeast with onshore/return flow
developing. This brings back the chances for isolated to scattered
showers Thursday night into Friday morning and also allows for
moderating temperatures. The activity is aided by a few shortwave
troughs of low pressure traversing the region within the embedded
southwesterly flow aloft. A much stronger mid-level trough moves
into the central part of the U.S. on Saturday sending a cold front
towards us. The front is expected to cross the region later on
Saturday with the best chances for showers. Guidance has backed off
on the strength of the front a tad and the instability looks to be
confined mostly to our south so we mentioned the mention of isolated
thunder at this time. Temperatures drop back below average, but
still pleasant, on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    44  66  46  62  44  /  10  10   0  10  10
Victoria          38  66  39  64  38  /   0  10   0  10  10
Laredo            41  69  43  64  43  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             42  67  43  64  42  /   0  10   0  10  10
Rockport          49  64  48  60  46  /  10  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           36  69  38  64  39  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        42  67  45  65  43  /   0  10   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       52  63  50  60  49  /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM



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