Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 220627
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
127 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED FOR THE
09-15Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. GENERALLY LGT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO MODERATE DRG THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LGT WIND AFTERWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES NEEDED WERE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE GRIDS TO FIT OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS. RAINFALL
REMAINS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE OR MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE. THUS...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. NO ZFPCRP UPDATE...AS CHANGES TO GRIDS
DID NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS OR WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR LRD THROUGH 01Z
BEFORE FURTHER DIMINISHING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR FOG FROM ALI-
VCT...AND MVFR STRATUS AT LRD...FROM 08Z-13Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS FAR WEST TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD SHRAS TONIGHT THRU WED...WHILE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER ACROSS THE EAST CWA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE MCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA WITH
CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS THROUGH WED. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN THE E
TO NE FLOW ACROSS S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MOD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOD RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THRU WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE RUNNING
APPROX. 0.5FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH RESULTS IN TIDES RUNNING AROUND
1.5FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND CAPPED OVER
THE REGION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. A SUBSIDENT
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI-SAT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES (DWPTS IN 50S) AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NEXT S/W TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INITIATING A WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH
DWPTS NOSING BACK INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
MONDAY WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTION. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POOLING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA BY THE WEEKEND...RELAXING THE GRADIENT IN
THE NW GULF AND WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE
ANY IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  67  84  65  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  59  85  60  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            87  68  85  66  88  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             88  65  86  63  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  69  83  68  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           87  65  86  64  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        87  66  85  64  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  70  83  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




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