Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 272351 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE COASTAL COOUNTIES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 08Z TO 14Z. THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY 10Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORMING
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY 14Z. WILL
SHOW MVFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
COULD ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH TSRA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE MARINE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 7 FT AT BUOY019 AND SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 19-23KTS. AM EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL
10 PM. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED AND AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. TIDE LEVELS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MSL OR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED...HOWEVER
TIDES ARE NOW FALLING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDE LEVELS BUT AT
THIS TIME LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 2 FEET ABOVE MSL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS POPS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. PWATS
ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH NESDIS`S BLENDED PW
ANALYSIS SHOWING NEAR 2.75 ROUGHLY 90 MILES ESE OF CORPUS. MODELED
VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER...BUT REGARDLESS...LOOKING TO BE QUITE WET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO 50S AND 60S OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AS IT NOW SEEMS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIP
FROM SOME CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SE OF GALVESTON WAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 INCHES...AND THERE IS NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS WILL NOT PLAY OUT DURING THE FAVORED
PORTION OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP QPFS AS WELL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OPENS UP INTO
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND ENDING ENTIRELY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS DISTANCE SPECIFICS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUE/WED
FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MAY BE
MODIFIED MORE THAN OTHER PLACES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  93  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          76  94  76  95  77  /  30  40  20  40  30
LAREDO            80 101  78 100  80  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             76  97  77  95  77  /  20  40  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  90  80  /  50  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           77 101  76  99  77  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  77  95  78  /  40  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  89  80  /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




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