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000
FXUS64 KCRP 231134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE NOT LOWERED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WITH
MOST OF THE AREA WITH MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2000 FEET. THERE ARE
EVEN SOME BREAKS EVIDENT ON LOW CLOUD/FOG LOOP OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN RESTRICTED THIS MORNING
EITHER...BUT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF SHOW LOWER VSBYS IN
HAZE/SMOKE AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS HAZE WILL REACH THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABOVE 2 KFT
AROUND 15Z AND LIFT TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SCATTER
OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY 03-04Z AND LRD BY 07Z. KEPT CIGS AT MVFR FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXCEPT VCT AREA WHERE IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD MOVE CLOSE TO
THE RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND LEAVE OUT WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DVLPG ACROSS W TX AND SLOWLY MOVG E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT. AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE UNSTABLE
AND PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO INCREASE TO ABV 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR COT HAS AROUND 50 PERCENT CHC OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP
FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR SAT BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AS
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE W CWA. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SE AND
S TX SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THE LESS FAVORABLE W SIDE OF THE TROF. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS PRGD TO BE ACROSS THE E CWA AND GULF WATERS THRU THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE W FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGD TO BE ACROSS MEX AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT THEN TAKES HOLD MON/TUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AS A LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE W U.S. RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO S TX BY WED. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR WED BUT IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. AS FOR
WINDS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY NEXT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  76  87  76  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          90  73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            98  77  97  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             92  75  91  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  76  84  76  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           96  74  95  73  97  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        90  76  90  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  77  84  76  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION