Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 191118
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
518 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High cirrus clouds
are expected. Sfc winds will diminish through the day. Winds will veer
from the north and northeast today to northeast and east tonight
and southeast by Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 431 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

Strong northerly winds across portions of the CWA this morning are
expected to diminish through the day. Models are showing moisture in
the upper levels today, thus am expecting some cirrus which could
help keep mx temps from reaching the 70s. Winds will become light
tonight and begin to veer to the east by Mon morning and southeast
by Mon afternoon. The onshore flow will usher slightly warmer temps
increasing moisture back across S TX on Mon. The upper level jet on
the back side of a trough progged to move across TX on Mon will be
in a favorable position by Mon afternoon for upper level support of
a few -SHRAs. Have gone with a 20 pop over the coastal waters where
the moisture is deeper and low level convergence will be strongest
on Mon.

As winds across the waters become more northeasterly today, tide
levels may increase to near 1 Foot above predicted. This will lead
to tides around 1.7-1.8 feet above MSL. Therefore, could see brief
wave run up to the dunes at the time of high tide this afternoon,
but should remain below advisory levels. However, if tides are
slightly higher than anticipated, then a Coastal Flood Advisory may
be needed.

Marine...Gale Warning will remain in effect across the coastal
waters this morning until 9 am. Winds should diminish below Gale
conditions by then, but will remain at advisory levels. Have gone
with a SCA for the bays and nearshore waters until noon and until 6
pm for the offshore waters.

Fire Weather...The strong northerly winds this morning will
diminish through the day as humidity values also decrease. By the
time the humidity values drop to 20-30 percent this afternoon, the
20ft winds will be much lower, therefore no fire weather concerns
are expected at this time.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...

The GFS ensemble mean depicts a weak coastal trough (in response to
an earlier shortwave) along with near normal PWAT values over the
MSA. Anticipate isolated shower activity over the MSA Monday night.
The GFS/EMCWF deterministic predict another upper disturbance to
move across the CWA/MSA Tuesday night/Wednesday along with a
corresponding surge of greater MSLP. The combination of the
foregoing surge/upper disturbance may result in isolated shower
activity over the MSA Tuesday night. SCA conditions may develop at
least over the Offshore Coastal Waters Wednesday. The deterministic
and ensemble output suggest an upper pattern characterized by a
trough over the ERN CONUS and a ridge over the WRN CONUS Wednesday
through Saturday, suggestive of subsidence/dry conditions over the
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    68  48  72  57  79  /   0   0  10  10  10
Victoria          67  42  70  54  77  /   0   0  10  10  10
Laredo            68  48  72  53  78  /   0   0  10  10   0
Alice             69  46  73  53  81  /   0   0  10  10  10
Rockport          66  50  70  60  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
Cotulla           67  44  70  50  78  /   0   0  10  10   0
Kingsville        69  47  73  55  81  /   0  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       67  55  71  62  77  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon CST today
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



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