Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251134 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Dense fog has been limited to a narrow corridor from
Alice to Beeville early this morning while low stratus was located
over parts of the Brush Country. Fog will continue to be a problem
at ALI until around 14Z with LIFR vsbys/ceilings possible.
Conditions will quickly improve by mid morning to VFR for most of
the area. Higher moisture over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will
move inland across the northern Coastal Bend to the Victoria
Crossroads today. Isolated showers with MVFR ceilings will be
possible during the late morning hours for the coastal plains with
isolated thunderstorms possible in the VCT area this afternoon.
VFR conditions will occur over the area through this evening and
early overnight period. Expect fog will again be a problem for
inland coastal plains late tonight affecting ALI with MVFR vsbys
with IFR vsbys possible. Showers forming over the Gulf again late
tonight will move inland and affect the VCT and CRP areas after
08Z Friday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...With the upper level ridge
shifting slightly to the north, higher moisture over the western
Gulf of Mexico will move into the area over the next couple of
days. Isolated showers have persisted during the night over the
coastal waters and have moved inland into the Victoria Crossroads.
Models depict axis of steeper low level lapse rates over the
coastal waters in region where CIRA layered precipitable water
image shows values around 1.9 inches. Will continue slight chance
PoPs over the coastal plains this morning with a narrow region of
chance PoPs over the Victoria area this afternoon. Steep low level
lapse rates will remain over the coastal waters again tonight and
expect scattered convection to develop overnight. Moisture will
increase from the northeast on Friday with precipitable water
values up to 2.2 inches. Will increase PoPs to 40 percent over
Victoria Crossroads and show slight chance over the eastern Brush
Country on Friday. Low level flow will be more easterly each day
and should lead to slightly cooler maximum temperatures for
coastal areas.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Complicated forecast pattern through much of the long term period.
Upper level high pressure ridge weakens and shifts north and
northeastward late in the week allowing moisture to feed back into
South Texas. Several elements will play a role into the eventual
forecast through the area however...including the tropical
disturbance (99L), a potential mid level disturbance and a TUTT low.
While models will not fully be able to resolve the details of the
tropical disturbance until it gets better organized, most of the
guidance suggests it will remain well east of the forecast area, so
for now will focus more on the expected TUTT low development. Models
have converged to some degree with the TUTT low developing in the
western Gulf of Mexico and moving up the Texas coast. At the same
time, most models also develop a mid-level low in the northwest
Gulf of Mexico with very high moisture. The positions of these two
systems will rule the rain chances across South Texas. The TUTT
low immediately along the coast is not in the most favorable
position, but if moisture from the north can get under it would
still have good rain chances. Will continue a blended approach at
PoPs with mainly slight chance to low end chance across the area,
with the highest PoPs east associated with the deepest moisture.
By the middle of the week, the mid/upper level disturbances should
weaken and begin to lower rain chances. As a result of deep
moisture and cloud cover will expect temperatures to remain
slightly cooler than normal through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  77  93  75  94  /  20  10  20  20  30
Victoria          93  75  91  73  93  /  30  20  40  20  40
Laredo            99  77  98  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             96  74  96  73  96  /  20  10  20  10  30
Rockport          92  79  91  78  93  /  30  20  30  30  30
Cotulla           98  75  96  74  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        95  76  95  74  96  /  20  10  20  10  30
Navy Corpus       92  80  91  78  93  /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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