Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 061741 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1141 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies/VFR conditions will exist through early
this evening. A cold front southeast of a CLL-SAT line will move
southeast this afternoon. A pre-frontal wind shift will reach
VCT area by 19Z with the frontal boundary moving in by late
afternoon. The front will move through the Coastal Bend early this
evening. Warm air advection will increase above the shallow cold
air mass near the surface toward daybreak. MVFR ceilings are
expected across most of the area by 09Z. Ceilings will lower to
IFR by 14Z with areas of fog/light drizzle providing MVFR vsbys.
Some isolated pockets of IFR vsbys will be possible over the Brush
Country.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1028 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...Cold front over central Texas continues to advance
southward this morning. Strong 3-hourly pressure rises of 4-5
millibars were occurring behind the front. The cold front has
already passed the I-35 corridor and should reach northern
counties of the CWA by mid afternoon. Lowered temperatures a
degree or two across the northern counties. With southwest to
west flow ahead of the front, the southern Coastal Bend should
warm up and even raised highs slightly from Corpus Christi
southward. Went with a blend of the 00Z Hi-Res ARW and 09Z SREF
models for timing of the cold front moving through the coastal
waters this evening. Frontal boundary is expected to stall just
east of the offshore waters tonight and move back toward the coast
as a warm front on Wednesday. But expect the boundary will remain
over the waters Wednesday. With increased cloud cover due to
isentropic lift strengthening Wednesday and the shallow cold air
mass over the region, lowered max temps around 5 degrees.

MARINE...Made changes to timing of the cold front moving into the
region this evening. Front is expected to stall east of the
offshore waters early Wednesday morning and move back into the
marine areas as a warm front in the afternoon. No changes were
made to the Gale Watch for late Wednesday night and Thursday
associated with the stronger modified arctic front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  50  68  53  54  /   0   0  10  30  40
Victoria          72  45  65  48  51  /   0   0  10  30  20
Laredo            78  49  65  50  53  /   0  10  10  10  30
Alice             80  48  66  51  53  /   0  10  10  20  40
Rockport          74  53  65  53  55  /   0   0  10  30  30
Cotulla           73  45  60  48  52  /   0   0  10  10  20
Kingsville        81  49  68  52  54  /   0  10  10  30  50
Navy Corpus       77  54  67  56  56  /   0   0  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin
     Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port
     Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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