Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251144 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP. LIGHT MORNING WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 15-20KTS...GUSTS NEAR 25KTS...THIS LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECOUPLING ONCE AGAIN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AROUND 2K-3K FT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH
WITH BKN DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT VFR FOR TONIGHT.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT CLOSE IN...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE...AM NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A CHILLY START TO THE
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS. BRIEF
EPISODES OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST
YIELDING TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. BUT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS IN
STORE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BREEZY
TIMES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL. CONTINUED THE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS...WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH TEXAS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC FLOW MAY LEAD TO
DEVELOPING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EAST...AND THE PROXIMITY OF
AN UPPER JET AND MIDLEVEL ENERGY MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
YET DESPITE THIS...CHANCES LOOK BEST HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OUT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST...RESULTING IN
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL SLOW MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO CLIMB AROUND 70 IN
THE NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW BRIEFLY
RETURNS ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH SYSTEM AND WILL
KEEP 20 AND 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO...COASTAL TROUGH MAY SET
UP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHICH WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50
ON WEDNESDAY (EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  58  76  63  72  /   0  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          67  54  74  61  70  /   0  10  20  20  40
LAREDO            70  51  76  57  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
ALICE             69  55  76  62  73  /   0  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          66  60  71  64  70  /   0  10  10  20  40
COTULLA           69  49  74  56  66  /   0   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  56  77  63  74  /   0  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       66  60  72  64  71  /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





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