Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 011136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG/MVFR VSBYS OVER
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...WHILE CEILINGS LIFT BUT REMAIN MVFR OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 14-15Z OUTSIDE OF THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIGHTLY INLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHT. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AROUND
08Z NEAR 1500 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS MOISTURE HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
REAMIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TO 2-2.25 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF INDICATE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 25H WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TUESDAY PROVIDING WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
COASTAL BEND. INCREASED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST OVER THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND BAYS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SWELLS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH HIGHER PERIODS. THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH THREAT INCREASING TO
HIGH RISK FOR TUESDAY...AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT BEGINNING OF LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DEPEND
ENTIRELY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS PROG
THE WAVE TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH MOST
MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSER CIRCULATION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH. WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PWATS BACK WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...STILL THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANY POTENTIAL CIRCULATION
REACHES THE MEXICO COAST. MOISTURE LINGERS THURSDAY...AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...SHOULD STAY IN A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL STREAMER/SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED
BY EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  92  79  89  /  20  20  50  30  50
VICTORIA          95  77  93  77  92  /  20  20  50  20  40
LAREDO           102  79 100  79  94  /  10  10  20  10  50
ALICE             98  77  95  78  91  /  20  10  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          93  80  91  81  88  /  20  30  40  30  50
COTULLA          101  77  98  77  94  /  10  10  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        96  78  92  79  90  /  20  20  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       92  81  90  81  88  /  20  20  40  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION




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