Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 291949
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
249 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...18Z SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRETTY STOUT CAP REMAINING.  WITH STRONG LLVL FLOW MIXING OUT
ANY FOCUSING BOUNDARIES THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS AND LESS CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE SHORT TERM ACRS OUR CWFA. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES FIRE
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER TNGT INTO SATURDAY.
ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.  PREV TEMP FCSTS LOOK FINE TNGT.

EXPECT AN MCS TO APPRCH THER NORTHERN CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAY OUT A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DVLPMNT ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES...AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR A STRONG STORM...WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY AS A
LITTLE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED...THEN DRIER AND COOLER BEYOND THAT.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF APPROACH THE COASTAL BEND. MODERATE CAP
STILL IN PLACE WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE. HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE
GONE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENT THREATS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WELL INTO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN. EXPECT
WINDS TO SUBSIDE A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND WILL GIVE THE SCA OVER
THE BAYS A CHANCE TO EXPIRE ON TIME. OTHW WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ON SATURDAY BUT BIG WAVES AND SWELLS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SWELLS ALREADY AROUND 8 SECONDS
AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS SO WAVE RUN UP AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
CONTINUE FOR AWHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  75  88  73  /  30  40  10  20  40
VICTORIA          74  87  73  84  70  /  60  60  10  30  40
LAREDO            74  98  73  94  73  /  20  20  10  20  30
ALICE             74  92  74  88  72  /  30  40  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          76  86  76  87  75  /  40  50  10  20  40
COTULLA           71  94  72  89  70  /  30  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        76  91  75  89  74  /  20  40  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  76  87  76  /  30  40  10  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM



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