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000
FXUS64 KCRP 271134 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Little change to the 06Z terminal forecast (same forecaster sees
same scenario). However, did remove the TEMPO 5SM BR at KALI and
KVCT as this has not transpired. VFR through the period with light
south winds becoming southeast with the sea breeze and diminishing
overnight. Could have some MVFR BR at KALI and KVCT toward the end
of the terminal forecast as winds become light and variable, but
for now will keep it VFR with light and variable winds. Only
mention of thunder remains in the KALI terminal, but only VCTS AOA
20Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 422 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Heat Advisory did not pan out Wednesday, and thus am even more
hesitant to go with one today, as apparently dew points fell much
more than expected. Given the model sounding data and projected
PWATs for today over South Texas, think that a SPS should suffice,
and even so some locations will not see 105 degrees (mainly
western areas where more mixing out may occur). Consequently dew
points were lowered some from the blended forecast. Temperatures
will be even warmer on Friday so heat indices will be high once
again, but again most areas will not see heat indices 110F or more
(few isolated areas like NQI).

Other than that, satellite is showing the upper low/TUTT near the
Middle Texas Coast and not producing much in precipitation at this
time. This system is forecast to move inland today and dissipate.
There still will be a nice mid-level theta-e ridge over the southern
areas in the afternoon and there could be the preferred area for
convection later on this afternoon. Based on high resolution model
output, and weakening TUTT (which already is not showing much in
convection now), am going isolated at best for showers/thunder
inland areas today. Convection (if any) should end by 28/00Z. Drier
air moves in on Friday with ridge trying to build back into the
Panhandle and moisture axis shifts just outside of area. Could not
rule out a rogue shower/storm mainly near the Victoria area on
Friday but for now will keep the dry forecast.

Warm again today and even warmer on Friday. For high temperatures,
using a blend of short-range guidance (about the same or higher than
warmer MOS numbers), but adding a couple of degrees near the coastal
areas where models consistently struggle with high temperatures near
the coast. Lows Friday morning pretty much a blend of MOS, GFS, NAM
and short-blend guidance (i.e. consensus).

One final note: Long period swells were occurring at BOY020 for a
couple of hours (2 feet 15 seconds). These have come down to less
than 10 seconds, and guidance was not showing these longer period
swells. Since winds are expected to be out of the 70 to 140 degree
range until later this afternoon, will not go with a high rip
current risk at this time but go with moderate risk. Even if swell
periods exceed 10 seconds again it will take some time for the
swells to move toward the area, and by then the winds may go back to
the south. Overall, believe the moderate risk forecast is preferred
at this time. It is one thing to err on the side of caution but I
believe the high rip current risk is not realistic (will brief day
shift to watch).

MARINE (Today through Friday)...

Weak south winds become more weak to moderate southeast during the
late afternoon and evening with winds again becoming more south
overnight. In short, typical summertime winds; maybe a bit weaker
than normal. Convection today expected to be isolated as best as
theta-e ridge will be inland during the afternoon with convection
more along the sea-breeze. Should be too dry and winds too light
near the coast by morning for any streamers of any significance.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...

Upper level ridging will dominate across the region through
Saturday. The ridge will back to the west slightly on Sunday as
an upper level trough dives into the southeast states. As this
occurs a frontal boundary will slide into eastern Texas over the
weekend. Models are a little more swift with the timing of the
front, but overall in agreement that the boundary will stall to
the north before reaching South Texas. Moisture pooling ahead of
the boundary will bring a return of 20-30% PoPs Sunday and Monday,
with slight chances continuing into the middle of next week.
Upper level riding will remain to the west of the region, with the
trough positioned just to the east. Precipitable waters values
are not coming in as high as previous model runs, but still
anticipate to see some convection develop, mainly across eastern
portions of the region.

Quite hot temperatures will persist over the weekend, with most
locations except those along the coast reaching 100 to 105 degrees
on Saturday. As the ridge backs further away from the region and
greater moisture returns, temperatures will cool down closer to
normal values for the time of year. Heat index values of 105 to
109 degrees can be expected daily through Monday. Some locations
may reach higher values and require heat advisories on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  77  97  76  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          99  76  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo           104  77 106  77 105  /  10  10   0  10  10
Alice            101  75 102  75 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          93  81  96  80  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla          102  75 105  76 105  /  10  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        97  76 101  76 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       94  82  96  81  94  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION