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000
FXUS64 KCRP 121135
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
535 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLING BUILDING INTO
S TX OVERNIGHT LEADING TO SOME DRYING/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA THIS MORNING. AM EXPECTING VFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OVERRIDING THE SFC HIGH AND KEEPING THE CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. CIGS
BECOME MORE TRICKY BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. MOS
GUIDANCE PROGS CIGS TO REMAIN AT VFR...HOWEVER ANALYSIS OF FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN
09-12Z FRI MORNING. FOR NOW WENT WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 2000FT AND
BKN AROUND 3500FT FOR EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK COLD FRONT/REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO S TX OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS MORNING AS
A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA TODAY WITH CLOUDS
SPREADING BACK TO THE N BY AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO A STRONG LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW OVERIDING THE SFC HIGH. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL LIKELY
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S DUE TO THIS COLD FRONT BEING WEAK WITH
LITTLE CAA AND MORE OF JUST A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH FRIDAY
ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LOW SWINGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/TX PAN HANDLE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHRA`S ON FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE NE CWA
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO UPPER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE.

MARINE...A MODERATE NLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS MORNING THEN DECREASING TO CAUTION LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
BY LATE MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF -RA
LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -SHRA`S ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN FORCING WITH
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY SLIDES
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...TAIL END OF WEAK FORCING DOES COME
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AREAS OF FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY WITH ACTUAL COLD FRONT
ARRIVING MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY COOL AIRMASS
WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COOLEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY MORNING...WHEN LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AND
SETS UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS MONDAY MORNING. A RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY
LEADING TO A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGS A WEAK RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO NOT. FOR NOW HAVE
NOT SHOWN THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  48  67  57  68  /  10  20  20  20  20
VICTORIA          56  43  64  52  64  /  10  20  30  20  10
LAREDO            58  48  68  54  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             55  47  68  55  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          56  48  66  56  66  /  10  20  30  20  20
COTULLA           57  44  62  48  67  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        55  47  68  57  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       56  52  66  59  67  /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION