Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 302332
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY TNT. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN TMW AS THE UPR
LOW WL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WL BE IN
THE VCNTY OF THE SEABREEZE AS IT PASSES ALI AND VCT BETWEEN 20Z
AND 22Z. SOME ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALI AND VCT BY
11Z BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS
AND NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
CNTRL TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH N-S AXIS WL MEANDER OVER THE CWA DRG THE PERIOD
WITH THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE) OVR THE ERN CWA/MSA. GOES SOUNDER DPI TPW FIELD
ANALYSES REVEAL AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVER THE CWA/MSA TODAY. CONCUR
WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTIC WHICH GRADUALLY INCREASE PWAT VALUES
FURTHER OVER THE CWA/MSA TNGT/MONDAY. ANTICIPATE ISOLD ELEVATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA/MSA MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES EXPECTED
OVER THE MSA/ERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT (NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC) WHICH
SHOULD COMBINE WITH UPPER FORCING TO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
CONVECTION. NO GREATER THAN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS DRG THE PERIOD. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT PREDICT THAT PRIMARY
SWELL PERIODS AND SWELL HEIGHTS WL REMAIN WELL BELOW RIP CURRENT
RISK THRESHOLDS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100F OR LESS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX THROUGH TUE
BUT A TAD FARTHER W WHICH WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE WENT WITH 20 POPS ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TO 50 OVER THE WATERS FOR TUE MORNING. BY TUE
AFTERNOON...THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND WITH RAIN CHCS
DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVER THE WATERS. RAIN CHCS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TUE EVENING THEN REDVLP TOWARD EARLY WED MORNING. THE RAIN
CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WED DUE TO THE
UPPER TROF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY E. RAIN CHCS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THU
AND FRI FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NW GULF
PLACING S TX ON DRIER/SUBSIDENT W SIDE OF THE TROF. FEEL THAT THE
SUPER BLEND OUTPUT THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN PRODUCING POPS THAT
ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROF...ESPECIALLY WED THROUGH SAT. THUS...DID NOT GO AS HIGH
AS THE SUPER BLEND FOR MOST DAYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BUT DID SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE FOR TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHCS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  76  92  76  /  20  20  30  40  30
VICTORIA          71  92  73  92  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            76  97  74 100  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             72  95  74  96  75  /  20  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  78  88  80  /  20  20  30  40  30
COTULLA           74  96  74  98  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  94  75  95  76  /  20  20  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  90  80  /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION



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