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000
FXUS64 KCRP 132030
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AN UPPER LOW S OF LA
EARLIER THIS MORNING PER THE WV SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT WAS MOVG SW
HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS HAD FCSTD.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOCATED JUST TO THE NE OF
THE CWA COULD CLIP THE VCT CROSSROADS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW N OF THE CWA
WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROF REMAINS GENERALLY TO THE NE OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE CWA PARTIALLY UNDER THE OUTSKIRTS OF A RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR MOST OF S TX. KEPT 5-10 POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH A MENTION OF -SHRAS ONCE AGAIN MON ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER ALONG WITH
STRONGER CAPE IN THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE PROGD
TO SHIFT INLAND DURING THE DAY...THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM DVLPG FARTHER INLAND. ONLY OTHER
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF WILL BE PATCHY FOG EARLY MON MORNING AND AGAIN
TUE MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE ALONG WITH A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IS HOW TO HANDLE
POPS WITH UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF AREA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS (AND WILL LIKELY GENERATE
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN
AND/OR DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES AREA. OTHER ISSUE IS HOW WARM IT
WILL GET DURING THE WEEK. FIRST...THE RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND WILL GENERALLY
HAVE TO COME FROM CONVECTION THAT WILL FORM NORTH OF THE CWFA AND
DRIFT DOWN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING BY FRIDAY WHICH
COULD HELP GENERATE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
CAPPED OVER OUR AREA (700MB ABOVE 10C FOR THE MOST PART...AND AS
MUCH AS 13C). THUS...CWFA WOULD GENERALLY HAVE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
RATHER THAN THUNDER. HOWEVER...DID MENTION THUNDER FOR TIMES WHEN
NORTHERN AREAS OF CWFA DO SEE 700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 10C. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST...
THEN CHANCE POPS NORTHERN HALF OF CWFA FRIDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY
CLOSEST TO AREA AND SOME UPPER FORCING POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. NO RAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...AM GOING TO GO ON THE WARM SIDE (HOT IN SOME
AREAS). MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY WARM 2 METER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES (ALREADY TALKED ABOUT 700 MB
TEMPERATURES). THUS...AM GOING TO GO WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WHEN
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE (AND MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED).
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND BRING
HEAT INDICES 105F OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES AND RIO GRANDE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS WINDS
STAY UP FOR PART OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  93  75  96  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  95  74  95  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 101  78 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  96  74  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  90  79  92  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           73 100  76 102  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  95  75  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  91  77  93  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM