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000
FXUS64 KCRP 222024
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
324 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Not much change in the weather pattern and/or airmass ergo not much
change in the forecast for these periods. The upper ridge is
blocking the western trough from making any eastward progress but the
trough to the east is not moving much either. Thus the area is stuck
in a similar airmass with only subtle differences in moisture. With
no significant changes in winds (higher or lower), pretty much will
continue to go with 10 to 30 POPs for Saturday, with rain chances
toward morning near the coast with the coastal/convergence
showers/possible thunderstorms. Will play the same slightly higher
chance for rain Saturday over the NE in the morning pushing NW in
the afternoon, with slight chance other locations again along the
weak sea-breeze. Rain should taper off again by early evening with
another round of rain possible near the coast toward Sunday morning.
Overnight lows a blend of MOSGuide and previous forecast. For highs
on Saturday, mainly used a blend of bias-corrected blended model and
previous forecast.

&&

.MARINE (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Generally weak to near moderate flow through Saturday night, with
showers/possible thunder developing again overnight especially near
the coast then tapering off in the afternoon with the weak sea-
breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Overall pattern in the long term period remains the same, but
wavering a bit on confidence with rain chances latter half of the
period. While moisture will most likely be plentiful, upper support
is questionable. Latest model runs cut off an upper level low
earlier than previous runs, causing upper trough to tilt back to the
southwest and not progress toward Texas. This could result in
ridging remaining over the eastern portion of the forecast area with
some of the upper level energy over western portions of the area. As
we`re still talking about days 4 and 5 will continue to broad-brush
a chance pop area wide until the finer details can be ironed out.
Regardless of the upper support, the moisture and sea breeze should
be enough to give us at least some convection daily. Will expect
abundant clouds through much of the period as well.  As for the
potential for a cold front late in the week, still plenty of
question with that and tilting of the upper level trough could rob a
lot of the energy necessary to pull the front this far south.  If it
does make it through, dont think we`re looking at anything game
changing. A shift to an east or northeast wind and temperatures
maybe a few degrees cooler...but again...it`s a long way down the
road and still lots of questions.

Temperatures should see a very gradual decline through the period
with highs in the low to mid 90s early, dropping into the upper 80s
and lower 90s as moisture increases. Lows remain mainly in the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  91  76  91  76  /  20  20  10  30  20
Victoria          73  90  73  92  73  /  10  30  10  30  20
Laredo            78  96  78  96  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
Alice             74  93  74  94  74  /  10  20  10  30  10
Rockport          79  90  79  90  78  /  30  30  10  30  20
Cotulla           75  95  75  96  74  /  10  20  10  20  20
Kingsville        75  92  75  94  75  /  20  20  10  30  10
Navy Corpus       80  90  80  88  79  /  30  20  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM