Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 290358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
TRACKING NORTH OF LK ERIE. THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IS DWINDLING ACROSS NORTHERN PA AT 0230Z AS IT RUNS INTO
DRY AIR NEAR THE NY BORDER. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
NORTH TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING
LIFT NORTH OF PA. FURTHER SOUTH...SHALLOW/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND LIKELY PRODUCE
OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. BASED ON MDL SFC-850MB RH OF NR 100 PCT....CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE SUSQ
VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NR ZERO...SO LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY COOLING
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CAD REGIME BTWN SFC RIDGE
OVR NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN
WILL HOLD TEMPS TO ONLY ARND 50F...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FROM LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER


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