Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 051224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND JUST THE CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE PATTERN
WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE INCLUDED THE CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF
SHOWERS TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ELSEWHERE... AN EASTERLY FLOW STRATUS LAYER COVER MOST OF THE
AREA.AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE EAST WILL BE
BREAKING OUT INTO THE SUN AND THE MIXING IN THE WEST COULD ALLOW A
SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN. HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA. ONLY THE NW IS WORTHY OF A CHC POP FOR
LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING AS A LAKE BREEZE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SHRA. THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO GET TO THE LOFTY
MAXES WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY - INCLUDING TIES OF THE RECORD
HIGHS AT HARRISBURG...ALTOONA AND BRADFORD YESTERDAY. WILL GO FOR
MAXES BASED ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE MINUS ONE OR TWO
DEGS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING AT MANY
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOLY FILL AND LOSE
CHARACTER. THE SFC HIGH WILL STILL NOSE INTO THE STATE...BUT THE
CENTER OF IT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
MONDAY. ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NW...BUT
THE EXPECTED CELL MOTION SHOULD KEEP THEM EITHER OUT OF THE STATE
TO THE NORTH OR MAKE THE FEW THAT DO POP UP GO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY TRY TO REDEVELOP IN THE ERN MTNS. OTHER AREAS MAY SEE
THEM TRY TO FORM...BUT WILL KEEP IT GENERALLY P/C OVERNIGHT WITH
THE CLEARING PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR SOME MORNING FOG ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND SUNNIER...AND POPS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT. TEMPS WILL GET A FEW DEGS F WARMER VS SATURDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...IT WILL BE THE FAR NW WHICH COULD SEE A POP UP SHOWER -
PERHAPS AGAIN BEING GENERATED ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT WARM AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE ESE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA TO OUR NW ZONES BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING BROAD TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
NE U.S. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL PUSH A
SECOND...STRONGER CFRONT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THIS PATTERN TRANSITION WILL BRING A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT MAINLY OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING VARIETY.

12Z GEFS AND 12Z EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS /FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID MISS VALLEY AT 00Z
SAT/...THOUGH AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN DAMPENS OUT
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE EC.

DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH ARE SIMPLY TOO MUDDY AT THIS TIME RANGE.

ONE THING MORE CERTAIN IN THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS THE COOLING
TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN BOTH
MAX AND MIN TEMPS COULD BE UP TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL
/ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS OF THE STATE...WHERE MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE FOUND/.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
11.3.9U IMAGERY AT 11Z SHOWS STRATUS HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL PA...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR/SFC OBS SUGGEST IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BTWN 12Z-13Z AT KBFD/KJST AND POSSIBLE AT KAOO. LOWER ELEVATIONS
FURTHER EAST SHOULD FARE BETTER WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL CAUSE CIGS TO RISE BY LATE AM. MDL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
UNTIL ARND NOON. HOWEVER...BY AFTN THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.

WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD


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