Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 311152
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
752 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early
this evening...possibly accompanied by a few sprinkles. High
pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for Wednesday.
Increasing moisture will flow north into Pennsylvania for
Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of another relatively
weak cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface cold front is having a tough time clearing our far sern
zones where temps and dewpoints are still in the low to mid 60s.
Elsewhere, skies will be generally clear/sunny through the early
afternoon hours thanks to a thin ne/sw sfc ridge. Surface dewpoints
will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Mid morning low temps will
range from the upper 40s to around 50F across northwestern penn...
to the lower 60s in the southeast.

the light wind and areas of wet ground from Monday`s showers will
lead to some patchy dense fog early today across the Middle and
Lower Susq Valley...along with the Juniata River Valley and its
tributaries.

Slowly rising heights aloft and will provide a mostly sunny and
warm day for residents of central PA on Tuesday. The exception may
be during the mid to late afternoon hours as a weak...secondary
cfront drifts se over the region. Some clouds...and maybe even
a few sprinkles (or highly isolated showers) should accompany
this boundary as 850-500 mb lapse rates climb to around 6c/km and
sfc based capes climbs to several hundred j/kg (mainly across the
central and western mtns...and the far lower Susq Valley.

Nudged the temp grids toward the latest Superblend guidance which
leads to high temps today ranging from the u70s over the
Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s over the Susq Valley. A few spots
could crack 87F in the far southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
The weak secondary front will clear the SE zones with little
fanfare early this evening. skies will become clear to partly
cloudy tonight with a light north to NE breeze occurring as sfc
high pressure slides by to our north.

Lows tonight will vary from around 50F across the northern
border...to near 60F in the valleys of Southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure should bring a mostly sunny Wednesday with
warm amd dry conditions aided by comfortable dewpoints in the low
50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere.

Latest 00-06Z Models and ensembles show cold front moving into
the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale
flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not
likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat.

For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the
area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool
down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too
far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day
to day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early
this evening with main impact being an increasing mid-cloud deck.
High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth for
Wednesday.

Areas of fog mainly over susq valley /where dewpoints are highest/
will burn off by mid morning, with VFR conditions becoming the
rule with a light NW/N surface wind. For Wed, VFR continues except
for some early morning local fog.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms
west.

Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
restrictions poss.

Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Lambert
Near Term...Lambert
Short Term...Lambert
Long Term...Lambert/Martin
Aviation...RXR


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