Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 271131
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN THIRD OF PA THIS MORNING SLOWLY CROSSING THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. POPS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. SFC HEATING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA WILL HELP INTENSIFY THIS AREA AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.

OF GREATEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE EXPECTED REGENERATION OF
TSRA ALONG LL JET/PLUME OF HIGH PWATS AS IT ENTERS THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. GEFS/SREF MEAN CAPES PEAK
ARND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES THIS AFTN. THIS MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH 6KM WIND FIELDS ARND 40KTS COULD
SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX DURING THE AFTN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA RUNS ROUGHLY EAST OF KIPT AND KHGR.

IN GENERAL...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF RAIN NEEDED TO BREAK US
OUT OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL. CONSALL MDL BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS AVG
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM SPOTTY AMTS OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVR
THE CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. HIGHER RES...CONVECTION ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE LOCAL AMTS
ARND AN INCH FROM TSRA THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.

MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE U70S-L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHEST PWATS/INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS...EXPECT A DRY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW PA
COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA LATE TONIGHT OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN POSSIBLE ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR
AND LESS HUMID CONDS...AS NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT ADVECTS A LOWER
PWAT AIR MASS INTO PA. UNDER MSUNNY SKIES...ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S NW MTNS...TO THE M/U80S
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY THU/THU NIGHT...MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SIGNALS A RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WX FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH
00Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E
COAST. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT
SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PM CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
MDL TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW FAST COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FROM ALL MDL DATA
THAT THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE /MON AND TUE/ WILL BE COOL AND
PERHAPS SHOWERY...WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND
POTENTIAL OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE HUMID CONDS...HAVE LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS PEAK ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
CWA BETWEEN 12-18Z...AND SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THU-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA.

SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR


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