Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 241051
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
551 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain will continue through Sunday. The rain could be
heavy at times tonight into early Sunday. A saturated ground
and swollen streams will support an elevated risk for flooding
through the weekend. A break in the wet weather pattern is
expected early next week. Above average temperatures are
expected to continue through much of next week before a relative
cooling trend toward climatology into early March.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*Flooding possible this weekend*

Cool and damp conditions prevailing early this morning with
widespread fog and areas of drizzle. Widespread dense fog covers
much of the South Central Mountains and Lower Susq up to the
Lycoming Valley. Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through
14z from the South Central Mountains northeastward to the
Lycoming Valley.

Cooler air continues to work in from the west behind a cold
front which crossed the central mountains after midnight. It
remains to be seen how much mixing will take place in the dense
fog area, but a good wind shift will push into the Laurels
shortly and erode the warm sector (50s) whichi have lasted much
of the overnight.

Main focus for this weekend remains potential flooding with
additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches for most of the area.
Heaviest rainfall

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The focus this weekend will be on potential flooding with
additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches forecast over most of
the area. Steady rain expected to redevelop across central PA
later this morning and afternoon as first wave crosses the area.
Daytime rainfall should range from one quarter to one third of
an inch amounts over the southeast to half to three quarter inch
amounts (and locally 1 inch) across the northwest.

The heaviest rainfall period/greatest risk for short- duration
flooding should be tonight through early Sunday morning. Flood
Watch includes all of Central Pennsylvania through Sunday
evening. Forecast rainfall and very wet antecedent conditions
(very saturated ground/soils and much above normal
streamflow/swelling streams) will support an elevated risk for
longer duration, widespread flooding of small streams, creeks
and river tributaries. Expansive low lying/poor drainage
flooding is also possible.

Temperatures will slowly climb into the mid 40s to low 50s on
today before peaking in the mid 50s and low 60s on Sunday based
on multi model consensus blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The wet pattern looks like it will take a break during the first
part of next week before precip risk increases next Wed-Fri.
Model and ensemble guidance show a low pressure system tracking
east-northeast from the TX/OK panhandle across the Central
Plains/Midwest into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by
Thursday. The ECMWF/CMC solutions want to develop a secondary
low to the south of PA from the southern Mid Atlantic piedmont
to the coast while the GFS is much farther north with any
secondary development. This may factor into some potential ptype
issues or wintry wx but only something to watch at this range.

Temperatures will continue to run above average next week with
signs of trending cooler/closer to daily climate normals into
early March.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A bit of a mixed bag overnight into tomorrow. Low cigs across
the region will bring widespread IFR conditions in low cigs and
vsbys from fog across much of the airspace for the next 24
hours. However, the low cigs at BFD, JST and AOO, along with the
persistent drier westerly flow will reduce the chances for
temperatures to drop and thus weakening the chances for IFR
vsbys. However, IFR cigs remain probable to form between 09Z to
12Z. Showers remain in Ohio and will slowly creep into the
region by late Saturday morning, early Saturday afternoon. the
IFR in cigs and vsbys through the central and eastern TAF sites
will persist through Saturday, though there is a chance for a
slight improvement in vsbys once the inversion at the SFC
weakens Saturday afternoon. Rain will continue through the
region through Saturday into Sunday.


Outlook...

Sat...Widespread restrictions with rain.

Sun...Widespread restrictions likely in periods of rain.

Mon-Wed...No sig wx.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Active hydrologic pattern ramps up again Saturday through
Sunday. Recent snow melt and rainfall has soils quite wet.
Streamflows are also running high. Forecast additional
rainfall of 1-2 inches (with locally higher amounts possible
across the mtns of Western PA) will produce significant rises
and will need to monitor levels closely. Some poor drainage and
small stream flooding is likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ028-036-
042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Lambert
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/Gartner
HYDROLOGY...



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