Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201834
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS DENSE FOG AND DENSE FREEZING FOG.
BUFKIT PLUMES AND WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND BOTH CORES
OF THE WRF ALL SHOW DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL 9 AM CST. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FOG EXTENT ON THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE ADVISORY, BUT HAVE DECIDED TO BE MORE
LIBERAL WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND LATER SHIFTS CAN TRIM DOWN IF NECESSARY.
THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TOWARDS MORNING NEAR PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE, BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MORE OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG RATHER
THAN DRIZZLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S WEST WHERE THERE IS NO CLOUD COVER/FOG TO MID TO UPPER
30S EAST/SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS, SLIGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MINS UP A BIT MORE.

TOMORROW:

OTHER THAN SOME MORNING FOG, FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAXIMUMS FROM DODGE CITY TO STAFFORD AREAS WHERE LINGERING
CLOUDS/FOG WILL SLOW THE RATE OF HEATING JUST A BIT MORE. 40S HERE AND
50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO COULD MOVE OUT INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT DURING THE DAY IN THAT AREA
AND HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. FARTHER EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY ERODE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY, AREAS AROUND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY STAY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEST
STATES DURING THE DAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MAINLY BE LIQUID. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WITH THE WAVE DROPS INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. FARTHER NORTH
THE TROUGH SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING A
FEW FLURRIES TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME 40 TO 45
MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER WAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN KANSAS
BY AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THIS WAVE, HOWEVER. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH SOME OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO CENTRAL KANSAS NEXT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG. HAVE INSERTED 1/4SM
AND FG FOR KGCK/KDDC. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR KHYS. THE LIFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  45  33  52 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  27  50  32  51 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  27  57  34  51 /   0   0  20  30
LBL  31  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  31  48  34  50 /   0  10  10  10
P28  37  47  36  54 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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