Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 260640
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
140 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
...Updated Long Term...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Strong to severe thunderstorms in the process of weakening this
morning across the eastern zones. Some storms have been severe
this evening with wind signatures on radar and up to quarter size
hail. Dual pol estimates show up to 2 inches of rain have fallen
near Larned/Pawnee county, La Crosse/Rush county, and eastern Ness
county. Further convective development is probable through
sunrise, in response to the LLJ, with activity being directed
toward Medicine Lodge. This evolution is shown nicely by the 00z
NAM and latest HRRR runs. Any showers/storms near Medicine Lodge
around sunrise will not last long, as much drier/more stable air
overspreads SW KS. North winds will be modestly gusty for a few
hours this morning behind the weak cold front, followed by a
stellar autumn afternoon. Diminishing NE winds under a clear sky,
with comfortable afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Another period of unseasonably warm and completely dry weather is
on the way for SW Kansas.
High pressure ridge axis rebuilds strongly onto the plains
Thursday. Full sunshine and modest southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
Lower 80s return for most locales.
Record or near-record heat is expected on Friday, as SW flow
develops aloft, and 850 mb temperatures climb back well into the
20s C. Mid to upper 80s will be widespread Friday afternoon.
SW winds will be strong and gusty Friday morning as the LLJ
weakens and mixes out, with winds diminishing during the afternoon
as a weak boundary slides south into SW Kansas. It is south of
this boundary, with the aid of downslope and compression, where
some locales in the SE zones should achieve the lower 90s. The
record high at Dodge City for October 28th is 85/1922, and will
likely be broken.
A very weak shortwave ripples through Saturday, accompanied by a
northerly wind shift and several degrees of "cooling" back to the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Not record territory, but still some 15
degrees above late October normals.
Sunday and Halloween...Another warming trend and more dry weather.
Expect lower 80s to be common Halloween afternoon with few clouds.
Have high confidence that trick or treating will be warm and dry
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Convection will remain east and south of the terminals for the
next several hours. Broken mid clouds and perhaps a straggling
rain shower through about 09z. Consensus of short term models
relegates fog/stratus development mainly to the SE of DDC during
the 09-14z time frame. Maintained a TEMPO group for DDC for
reduced vis in BR Wed AM, but confidence is low. VFR/SKC expected
at all airports by 15z, with north winds 13-23 kts for several
hours before weakening this afternoon. Winds expected to become
light and variable at all airports around sunset as weak surface
high pressure ridge settles into SW KS.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 78 48 80 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 49 79 45 82 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 50 79 47 81 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 51 80 46 81 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 53 76 47 79 / 30 0 0 0
P28 61 79 50 79 / 40 20 0 0