Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011934
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A strong upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will
progress eastward into the northern plains by Tuesday. Lee
troughing ahead of this feature will draw low level moisture into
the plains along and east of the 100th meridian. There is
tremendous uncertainty in the large scale features after Tuesday,
with some of the models being more progressive with upper level
troughing and others holding it father west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through
early tonight in a warm advection pattern. Southeast winds will
continue as the aforementioned lee trough slowly strengthens. Lows
tonight will be in the 50s with 80s for highs on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

As the southern extension of the aforementioned upper level
trough approaches by Tuesday, there is a chance of thunderstorms
in central and south central Kansas. The western extent of
thunderstorm chances depends on how progressive the trough is.
If the system is very progressive like the ECMWF suggests, then
the thunderstorms could be confined to areas east of Hays and
Medicine Lodge as a cold front progresses through Dodge City and
Wakeeney in the early afternoon. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Tuesday in the 70s and 80s, with 70s for Wednesday.
Temperatures after Wednesday are speculative given the large
difference in model solutions; but abnormally cold or warm
readings are not likely. In this progressive upper level regime,
precipitation chances do not look good after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies, resulting
in light southeast winds through the period. There is only a very
slight chance of a shower in vicinity of the terminals through
06z. VFR conditions will persist.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  84  58  86 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  55  84  58  86 /  20  10   0  10
EHA  55  85  59  85 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  56  85  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
HYS  56  80  59  84 /  20   0  10  10
P28  57  82  58  84 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch



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