Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231129
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
529 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATE FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

PAST EVENING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  A
STRONG 150+ KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS SEEN
STRETCHING BACK WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND IS
LIKELY AN EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. FURTHER, EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS PATTERN IS HEALTHY LOOKING WAVE ACROSS TX WHILE A CYCLONIC
WAVE BREAK AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK IS
CARVING OUT ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. CLOSER TO THE
GROUND...RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS THE LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN TEXAS WITH A CLOSED
LOW SITTING ALONG THE KANSAS...COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH 3-4 HPA PRESSURE RISES SEEN
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP FOR KANSAS AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CYCLONIC WAVE BREAK AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A 150+ KT
JET STREAK CARVES OUT A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS PAST
OVERNIGHT...TO PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AS HEALTHY PRESSURE RISES EXIST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER, INITIALLY THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE A RAPID INCREASE IN
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40-45 KTS POSSIBLE BY
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH LACKING A STRONG ARCTIC PUNCH...TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN STEADY OR BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A BRIEF CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO AFTERNOON AS A TROWAL SEEN IN THE
315K THETA/E LAYER DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL CREATE A BAND OF 700-600 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND
RESULTANT ASCENT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF FORCING GIVEN
THE INHERIT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE, THIS WILL STRING BRING
SOME LIGHT BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP ARCTIC AIR, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
MIXTURE WITH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT WILL THEN TURN QUIET AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH PREVAILS.  THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY CLOUD COVER TO ERODE QUICKLY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TAKE OVER. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE ENDED AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SLOWLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING. LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS WILL CREEP NORTH INTO THE THE
SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS MONDAY, WHILE AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 40S, FROM HAYS TO
SYRACUSE. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY,
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID AFTERNOON AND WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12 TO 15 MPH. CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THE SLOW WARM UP WITH RUN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S
BY WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS
CLOUDS START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING, THE MODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED FARTHER EAST WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STAY WELL EAST OF OUR CWA, AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL AID IN WARMING THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 60S NEAR ELKHART, THE LOWER TO MID 50S FROM
MEDICINE LODGE TO DODGE CITY TO GARDEN CITY, AND THE MID 40S IN
THE HAYS AREA. SOME MODELS ARE EVEN SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST AREA
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THANKSGIVING AND THE NEXT DAY,
FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF I-70, AND RANGE TO THE
LOWER 30S NEAR ELKHART AND LIBERAL. RIGHT NOW, THE ECMWF MODEL IS
HANGING ON TO BRING THAT COLD FRONT IN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS PUSH WARMER
AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL
FOR NOW, BUT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS MAY WARM US UP EVEN MORE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR SATURDAY, THE SAME PATTERN HOLDS TRUE WITH THE SUPERBLEND
MODEL PLACING COLD AIR IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES, BASICALLY NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM LAKIN SOUTHEAST TO PRATT, FORECASTING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS. IN OUR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AROUND SYRACUSE, ELKHART AND
MEADE, HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
MIN TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND SAT MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING STIFF
NORTH WINDS OF 25G35KT, AND SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIPITATION, CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND
OVC015 TO 0VC025.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  26  48  24 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  48  22  47  22 /  40   0   0  10
EHA  47  26  49  23 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  48  23  50  23 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  48  26  46  22 /  60  10   0   0
P28  53  29  52  26 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE


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