Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031935
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, THE ARW AND NMM ARE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION THAN IS THE 12KM NAM AT THIS TIME FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM PRETTY WELL SPLITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING CONVECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND DEEP INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION
IS THE NMM WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION BOTH FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY FEEDING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE AND
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO WESTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY, A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A MODELED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, BUT
MAY BE LIMITED IN VERTICAL EXTENT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. THE ARW
SUPPORTS SMALL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATE EVENING AS WELL.

AS CONVECTIVE CHANCES EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON UNKNOWN MESOSCALE FEATURES, THE FORECASTER
CERTAINTY DROPS OF CONSIDERABLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE MID LEVEL BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN TOT HE NORTHER OF OUR FORECAST  AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS WARM, AND MAY REMAIN THE
GENERAL FOCUS AREA FOR CONTINUE MCS DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
THE TREND CONTINUES FOR A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE CONTINUED WITH THE ECMWF MOS TREND FOR DAILY
MAXIMUM T, ALTHOUGH THE TREND COULD BE CHANGING AS WE ARE HEADING
OUT OF THE RECENT RELATIVELY COOL, VERY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
PERIOD. THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SEEMED TO HAVE HANDLED
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE BEST RECENTLY AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST MID TO
UPPER 60S LOWS DURING THE MID LEVEL TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS AT KHYS, SOUTH
WINDS AT KDDC AND LIGHT TO EASTERLY WINDS AT KGCK. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT KDDC/KGCK OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
MVFR CIGS AT KHYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  93  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  66  92  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  67  94  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  67  91  67  87 /  40  20  30  30
P28  68  93  69  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


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