Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Warm and dry conditions can be expected once again today across
western Kansas as southwesterly winds at 10 to 15 mph develop in
response to a surface trough of low pressure deepening in eastern
Colorado.

Given these unseasonably warm temperatures and the 20 to 30
degree dew points the afternoon relative humidity values will fall
back to 10 to 15 percent for several hours across western Kansas.
Wind speeds however do not look strong enough to meet the a red
flag warning criteria, but elevated or even near critical fire
weather conditions are expected. Given these dry conditions out
door burning is still discouraged for all of western Kansas today.

Highs in the 75 to 80 degree range still looks on track given the
temperatures at the top of the mixed layer that is forecast to be
around the 850mb level. Could even see a few lower 80s in extreme
southwest Kansas this afternoon.

Tonight the lows will not be as cool as earlier this morning
given increase southwest winds and a few more high clouds. Will
continue to favor lows tonight in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

A surface trough of low pressure will continue to deepen over
eastern Colorado mid week as a westerly down slope continues
across the Central Rockies. Following the 850mb temperature trends
from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday the highs on Wednesday should
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs may end up a little
warmer in portions of southwest Kansas.

Also on Wednesday an upper level disturbance will cross the
Northern Plains, and as this upper level system moves into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday night the next, stronger, upper level
trough will quickly move east across California and Nevada. Over
the Central Plains a surface cold front will move into southwest
Kansas where it will briefly become stationary before beginning to
lift back north as a warm front late Thursday afternoon.

Another warm day can be expected south of this frontal boundary
and highs once again will climb into the 70s. North of this
frontal boundary the highs will on average be 15 to 20 degrees
cooler Thursday afternoon. In addition to the warm temperatures, a
gusty southwest wind will develop across portions of southwest
Kansas Thursday afternoon as an area of low pressure at the
surface deepens across eastern Colorado in response to the next
upper level disturbance moving east across the Central Rockies.

Thursday night into Friday this upper level disturbance will
cross the Central Plains as the deepening area of low pressure
crosses western Kansas. Moisture and isentropic lift will improve
Thursday night ahead of the eastward moving upper level trough
which will be located near the left exit region of a 250mb jet.
Enhanced lift is still forecast across southern Nebraska and
northern Kansas where an area of 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis
will be located for 6 to 12 hours. Based on temperature profiles
the precipitation will begin as rain Thursday evening but change
to all snow after midnight. Could easily see several inches of
snow where ever this band of enhanced lift develops by early
Friday morning. The GFS and ECMWF still favoring in keeping this
accumulating snowfall near the Nebraska border.

Some snow is still possible in north central and west central
Kansas Thursday night and Friday as a cold front moves across
southwest Kansas. At this time it is still too early to tell how
much snow will fall if it does develop this far south.

Very windy conditions will also be possible behind the cold front
late Thursday night and Friday. Given the cold air advection
forecast on Friday along with the chance for cloud cover am
concerned that temperatures are too warm, especially in the north.

A warming trend will return over the weekend and into early next
week as one upper level system moves into the Ohio Valley and the
next eastern Pacific upper level wave starts to move across the
southwestern United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR expected through TAF pd. SW winds 5-15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Unseasonably warm temperatures and low afternoon relative
humidity values can be expected today and Wednesday but winds are
forecast each day to be at less than 20 mph each afternoon.

On Thursday a surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas
where it will briefly become stationary before beginning to lift
back north as a warm front late day as the next upper level
disturbance approaches from the west. Warm and dry conditions will
continue south of the front Thursday afternoon as windy
conditions develop near the Oklahoma border. Thursday afternoon
wind speeds of 15 to near 30 mph may become possible by late day.

Elevated fire danger levels are expected both Wednesday and
Thursday across western Kansas given the low afternoon relative
humidity. The stronger winds developing on Thursday south of the
surface boundary will produce near critical to critical fire
danger levels in portions of southwest Kansas, mainly near the
Oklahoma border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  43  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  38  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  42  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  40  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  76  42  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  42  78  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert


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