Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 260459
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING WARM SECTOR SOUTHWESTERLIES
ENGULFING THE REGION...WITH MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MN EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WI. TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE ACRS SW MN INTO CENTRAL NEB... JUTTING DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. A FEW LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENT AREAS
OF NOTE JUST UPSTREAM...ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED
ONE WAVE DEPARTING THE AREA ACRS WI NORTHERN LK MI...AND A VIGOROUS
VORT MAX DIGGING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TX-OK/. A BOUT OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES PROBABLY HELPING KEEP
A LID ON ANY LOCAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN AFTERNOON HEATING...FOR
NOW. SBCAPES GROWING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE SCTRD CONVECTION ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OTHER POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE SPAWNING GROUNDS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL IA. 30-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY H85 JET ALONG WITH SOME OTHER LLVL SHEAR
ENHANCEMENT PROGGED TO BUILD ACRS EASTERN IA THIS EVENING THRU MID
NIGHT. THUS SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAKE
IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. BUT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE THE ONGOING UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL
LINGER ACRS THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN LONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING...DEEPER SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUST PRIMARY AND LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREATS. INTERESTING THAT
SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM HIRES SOLUTIONS VARY FROM TOTALLY DRY ACRS
THE1212 LOCAL AREA 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...TO SOME STRONG STORMS
SCATTERING ABOUT ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA
GENERALLY FROM AROUND 8 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...BUT LACK OF A
FORCING FOCAL POINT MAY SUPPORT THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BACK SOME TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. THEN EYES TURN TO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE AS IT EJECTS
OUT AND ROLLS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO
BY DAYBREAK TUE. ACCOMPANYING LLVL THTA-E PLUME AND LIFT INDICATED
ON MCS-GENERATION TOOL SUGGEST A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OR MCS
TYPE FEATURE MAY BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA OUT OF MO BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM THIS COMPLEX IF IT
MATERIALIZED AND MAKES IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO WALK THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIGHT ACRS
THE CWA WHILE A L/W TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY...MUCH OF TUE
COULD BE A WET ONE WITH SHOWER/STORMS CLUSTERS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTH ACRS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE BULK/DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
ARE PROGGED FOR TOMORROW MORNING...TIME OF DAY AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/RAIN ITSELF IMPEDING HEATING MAY LIMIT MUCH OF ANY SEVERE
STORM THREAT TUE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT. THE HIGHER COVERAGE MAY THEN PUSH
NORTH OF I80 BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SCTRD/DECREASING COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OR A DRY
MID LEVEL INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH MAY BE THE ONE FACTOR TO HELP
MAKE FOR A STRONGER STORM IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON. A BIG
BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUE HIGH TEMPS IF CLOUDS/RAIN HANG ON STRONG OR
CLEAR OFF EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL PLAY THE HAPPY MEDIUM
CARD OF MID TO UPPER 70S.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE
WETTEST PERIOD THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED FORECAST. PERSISTENT MOIST
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT BROAD TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OCCURS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM. THE
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS CORROBORATED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST IN CASE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FORM DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL PUT A LIMIT ON STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERITY.

FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK ON FRIDAY UP AROUND 570 DAM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THRERE COULD BE A JET
ENTRANCE REGION IN THE SAME VICINITY.

850 MB HEIGHT FIELDS EXPOSE A VERY MOIST TRAJECTORY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS STILL A
LONG WAY OUT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
FROM TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THEN WASHES OUT. THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE GFS KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. PRECIP
CHANCES STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60-70 LIKELY POPS ON
SATURDAY DROPPING TO 30-40 ON SUNDAY.    UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT
AT KCID/KDBQ...THEN AT KBRL/KMLI AFTER 11Z. RAIN WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAIN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY


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