Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 222303
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
403 PM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and very warm weather in store for NW California for
this upcoming week. Some areas in Mendocino County will see highs
getting into the mid 90s. No precipitation expected this week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...We will have a dry and very warm week across NW
California. Temperatures on Sunday was fairly warm, with locations
in Humboldt Bay seeing highs near 70 degrees. Elsewhere, upper 50s
and 60s were widespread.

The big warmup will start on Monday. Weather models are showing a
strong broad ridge of high pressure will set up shop along the West
Coast. This will allow warmer air to move into the area from the
south. 850-mb temperatures are forecasted to exceed 20 C, indicating
this airmass is anomalously warm. Do expect highs to get into the
90s in some of the warmest interior locations from Monday through
Thursday. High temperatures will be running about 15 to 20 degrees
above normal. Ukiah can see highs into the mid 90s on Tuesday.
Normal high temperatures for this time of year is about 75 F. Record
high for Ukiah is in the upper 80s to low 90s for the next few days,
so temperatures will be approaching record territory in Ukiah. Along
the coast, highs will be in the upper 60s to 70s, which is still
fairly warm for this time of year.

Winds will be shifting offshore tonight, and this will prevent
widespread low clouds and fog from forming in the area. There will
be a few areas with patchy fog in the morning, but it should quickly
burn off in the morning and give way to sunny skies for most of the
day.

With the area of high pressure not moving that much, all the
precipitation will be steered north of NW California. Do not expect
precipitation for the work week and beyond.


&&

.AVIATION...A stationary front has remained to the north of the
area this afternoon. This is bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to
Crescent City. Farther south conditions improve and VFR conditions
are in place in most areas. Tonight with onshore flow the low
clouds and fog are expected to return to the coastal areas
bringing IFR to LIFR conditions. Later tonight as high pressure
builds into the area offshore flow starts to set up. This will
likely not be strong enough to clear skies out overnight, but it
should help clear skies more quickly on Monday. MKK

&&

.MARINE...The southerly wind wind waves persist near Crescent
City. Tonight winds will switch to the north as high pressure
builds into the area. Moderate to strong northerlies are expected
on Monday. Tuesday these winds will diminish slightly near the
coast. Then on Wednesday and Thursday winds will increase once
again. Models are indicating that they will be near gale force.
Friday and Saturday there is decent agreement on light winds over
the area.

The long period swell persists across the area. Currently it is
around 10 feet at 13 seconds. This will be fairly steady through
the night. Tonight another swell will start to move into the
waters. Initially it will be around 2 feet at 20 seconds. Monday
this will build to around 5 feet at 18 seconds. This is expected
to bring a sneaker wave threat to the area beaches. These swells
will combine and slowly diminish through Friday. Saturday models
are indicating another swell will build into the waters for the
weekend. Initially it looks to be around 21 seconds at 6 to 8
feet, but this may change as it gets closer. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday
     evening for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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