Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 282218
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
318 PM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather this weekend will return to a more typical summer
pattern, with warm temperatures persisting across the interior
through the weekend. Marine stratus will continue along the coast
during the overnight and early morning hours for the next couple
of nights, with temperatures near or slightly warmer than seasonal
values continuing into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)

More of the same can pretty much sum up our weather for the next 18
hours, as stratus has been rather stubborn in its recession along
most of the Redwood Coast. However, the latest sounding out of
McKinleyville shows the marine layer has decreased to about 2500
feet depth, which is about 500 feet less than yesterday. This has
proven useful in eroding the clods more, as most of the outer waters
have become clear, and the stratus is rapidly decreasing in coverage
and depth along the coast from humboldt Hill north to Klamath right
now. This should provide a few hours of sunshine, before the clods
increase again after sunset. In fact, a developing southwest flow
ahead of an incoming shortwave trough may allow the stratus to
penetrate a little further inland tonight, especially along the
river valleys. As for temperatures overnight, heights aloft
increase, causing 850mb temps to warm about 2 to 3 deg. C area-wide,
resulting in lows being a couple of degrees warmer than what was
observed this morning for most locations.

Speaking of that shortwave, normally one would think our convective
chances for the interior would increase, as the base of the trough
and resultant best lift treks right down highways 299/36. The
problem seen in the soundings this go around is the dearth of
moisture. Given this is a fast moving system and there`s no
prolonged period of southeast to south winds, as we typically need
to get a more substantial increase of moisture across the interior
as it creeps up the valley, the net affect fro the added lift will
be nil. At this point, maybe some slightly higher wind gusts may
help warm temperatures a bit due to increased down-slope effects.
Seasonably warm values will continue Friday night, with soundings
continuing to show a bone-dry profile.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Riding aloft will once again attempt to build northeastward across
the forecast area, with 500mb heights increasing into the 586-590dkm
range, with 850mb temps increasing into the 20-25 deg. C range as
well for our neck of the woods. This will in turn cause temperatures
to rise about 2 to 5 degrees during the afternoon, with the interior
valleys likely seeing highs in the middle to upper 90s. The
increased heights/temperatures aloft will also help morning lows
increase a degree or two as well.

Another disturbance aloft will pass by to our north for the
beginning of the work week, helping to flatten the ridge some. This
will allow temperatures to drop back to more seasonal values, with
dry weather continuing through the period. /PD

&&

.AVIATION...
The marine layer behavior remained persistent across the North Coast
and nearby coastal mountains and valleys since the beginning of the
week. The impact at ACV & CEC appeared to be mostly minimal as
visibilities were basically OK and cigs were not super-restrictive.
The stratus has been especially "clingy" at coast from Cape
Mendocino to Trinidad. Lower cloud cigs were mostly IFR-LIFR.
Following an afternoon of widespread clearing, marine clouds will
redevelop across the coastal areas in the evening/overnight. Inland
areas will remain VFR...including KUKI. /TA

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to moderate winds and steep seas will persist
through the next several days as high pressure stationed offshore
maintains a tight gradient. The existing small craft advisories
remain in effect. Winds across the northern waters could diminish
subtly Thursday night into Friday. However, they will increase again
over the weekend with more numerous gale force wind gusts possible
across the outer waters. Thus, our existing advisories may need to be
extended or upgraded later this week. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455-470-475.

&&

$$

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