Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 231054
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
354 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will bring a significant warming
trend this weekend with temperatures approaching the triple
digits across the interior. Hot temperatures will persist next
week. Coastal areas will continue to see a mix of clouds and sun
as the marine layer fluctuates in depth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Pictures from space this morning showing a
compressed and smaller area of low marine clouds stretching from
trinidad to the cape. Some ground fog is also forming along the
coast. The combination of increasing northerlies along the coast
and strong subsidence should allow the coast to clear up again
later this morning for what should turn out to be another nice
day...just a little breezy in the afternoon. Despite the
increasing heights and thickness aloft coastal temperatures should
remain near normal due to the absence of any significant offshore
flow. But a true heat wave will blanket areas east of the marine
layer influence beginning today...thus some interior valleys
should eclipse the 100 degree mark later this afternoon. The ridge
will build further Wednesday through the end of next week and
thickness values may reach near 585 dm with 850 mb temperatures
approaching 30C. This will support high temperatures in many
interior valleys well into the 100s and potentially near 110F by
late in the week in the hottest valleys if the warmest model
guidance is correct. Additionally, as southwesterly mid- level
flow develops late in the week, dewpoints may trend upward and the
potential for thunderstorms will need to be monitored with best
potential, at this time, possibly being Friday or Saturday of
next week. This is mainly in response of the combination of moist
air moving nortward from the southern CA and areas just off the
southern CA coast coinciding with increasing instability at mid
levels. /RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...Marine layer continues to be compressed from higher
pressure aloft and this is evidenced this morning by the
accumulation of ground fog at cec and a late forming stratus deck
around 700 ft. The mvfr conditions will likely continue through
the next 4-5 hours before breaking out again by late morning.
Expect coastal air terminals to be vfr again from the afternoon
into the evening. Interior sites will remain vfr through the
entire taf cycle as the lower levels of the atmosphere warm and
dry under a developing heat wave.


&&

.MARINE...Forecast model data remains on track for gusty
northerlies mainly across the outer waters this weekend. Inner
waters will also see some afternoon peaks of stronger gusts
around 30 kt but overall should be lighter than the gales
offshore. Steep waves will hike up in response to the persistent
north winds through the morning hours with the sea state
approaching 10 to 13 ft by late this weekend. We will need to
consider the possibility for a Hazardous Seas warning nearshore as
wave heights build but it is too early to issue at this time.
Overall, conditions should remain crummy with no relief expected
until late next week. /KML/TN


&&

.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470-
     475.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     PZZ470-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455.

&&

$$

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