Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 210512 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1212 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 817 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... With sfc ridge of
high pressure pushing quickly off the Carolina coast and an
amplifying upper trough off the southeast TX coast, the low level
fetch is swinging out of the SE to SW. As a result, an area of
enhanced low level moisture is progged to advect northward
overnight tonight, therefore most will wake up tomorrow morning to
likely have a mostly cloudy stratocu deck in place. Have also
included some slight pops for light drizzle/rain mention as there
should be at least some isentropic forcing and possible mid/upper
wave influence. Otherwise have held onto some slight to low end
chance pops for light rain mainly to parts of central GA late
tomorrow into the overnight given continued possible influence of
any weak perturbation east of the aforementioned southern trough.

Temps stay above the freezing mark tonight given the southerly warm
advection and cloud insolation. Expect mainly warmer afternoon temps
Tuesday for most of central GA (generally in the 60s), though
possibly cooler values in the 50s, especially NE GA where there
could be a weak hybrid CAD wedge holding on with any in-situ
diabatic enhancement from morning clouds/drizzle.

Baker

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes to the forecast were needed at this time. An old
frontal boundary will remain situated across central Florida for
much of the period. The next cold front is expected for the latter
half of the weekend.

Quiet weather will be the rule for the extended period. An old
frontal boundary situated across central FL will be the main weather
maker for the region. Several waves of low pressure/upper
disturbances are progged to move along this old front, but as of
now, both the ECMWF and GFS are keeping any widespread rainfall well
to the south of the CWFA. The models do keep coming into better
agreement, and overall, only a few tweaks were made to the pops for
the Wednesday night through Thursday night time period. Still, pops
are at most around 30%.

A dry cold front is expected for the late weekend or early next
week. Seasonal to slightly below temps are expected through the
period.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Increasing potential for MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings this
morning along with patchy to areas of light rain and drizzle
during the day. Confidence for ceiling heights and rain/drizzle
chances are low and will need to be monitored. Some improvement
during the day to high MVFR to VFR ceilings. Surface winds light
and variable or light SE-NE. Potential for low clouds and fog
tonight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence for winds today.
Low to medium confidence for all other elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  44  62  39 /  20  10   0   5
Atlanta         59  45  60  40 /  20  10   0   5
Blairsville     56  38  56  32 /  20  10   0   5
Cartersville    58  41  57  35 /  20  10   0   5
Columbus        65  49  65  42 /  20  20   5  10
Gainesville     55  44  60  39 /  20  10   0   5
Macon           65  47  65  43 /  20  20   5  10
Rome            60  40  57  33 /  10   5   0   5
Peachtree City  61  44  61  37 /  20  10   0   5
Vidalia         68  52  67  47 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BDL



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