Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 201834
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
134 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1051 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017/
Forecast is on track with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in
the 60s across much of the area at this hour. Anticipate the
trend to continue with possible breaks in the clouds, more so
later in the day with temperature climbing into the low 70s.
We are keeping an eye on incoming model guidance as we forecast
the potential of strong storms Saturday through Sunday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 645 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017/
SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Convection waning early this morning as strong short wave continues
to lift north and east away from the forecast area. We end up in a
bit of a lull today as weak upper ridging develops over the region
in response to the next short wave digging into the plains. Still
enough instability expected to linger over the far south for chance
POPs and thunder. With shear diminishing and instability moderate at
best, chances for severe weather appear minimal through the day
today. Upper flow quickly transitions back to southwesterly
overnight bringing increasing chances for precipitation back into
the area. Instability remains marginal through the majority of the
nighttime period as well as shear so once again, chances for severe
weather remain minimal through most of the overnight period. During
the day Saturday, instability increases from the southwest, and
moderate low/mid-level shear begins spreading back into the region
as well, bringing increased coverage of convection and at least a
slight chance for severe thunderstorms, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Total QPF through the day
Saturday is currently expected to remain below levels that would
pose any widespread flood threat, although localized heavy rain may
produce some minor problems.
LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Long term pattern remains consistent with several short waves
affecting the southeast. Southwest flow aloft will keep a moist
and unstable air mass over the area through the weekend. There
exists more than one opportunity for strong to severe storms over
the next few days. Saturday and again Sunday still seem the most
likely time frames. This remains dependent on existing clouds and
on-going convection...however a strong low level jet and strong
shear will support damaging winds and possibly an isolated
tornado. The main upper low moves across the state Sunday night
and early Monday time frame...although there still remain timing
differences between models. A break expected for Tuesday but
another short wave will bring moisture and a chance for showers
Wednesday and Thursday.
Not thinking there will be a need for a flash flood or flood
watch at this time...although some rises on the more flashy creeks
can be anticipated. Expected rainfall amounts from today through
Sunday night could range from one to three inches...with some
locally higher amounts in convection.
Most TAFs are now VFR and we will continue to see improvement to
mostly VFR conditions through the afternoon hours. Expect
conditions to deteriorate again with MVFR conditions across most
areas by 02-04Z and IFR/LIFR by 06-08Z. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will spread north and east into the forecast area by
08-12Z. South to southwest winds 4-10kt gusting briefly this
afternoon. Winds may back briefly to SSE this evening, but SW
through the at least 15Z Sunday. Thunderstorm activity looks most
promising across the southern TAF sites edging north through the
morning hours, toward the metro TAF sites.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to Medium for cigs/vsbys.
Medium to High for all other elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 71 58 69 57 / 30 40 80 80
Atlanta 72 59 67 57 / 20 50 80 80
Blairsville 67 53 63 52 / 30 30 80 80
Cartersville 71 58 67 55 / 20 50 80 80
Columbus 75 61 70 59 / 20 70 80 80
Gainesville 69 58 66 55 / 30 40 80 80
Macon 74 61 69 60 / 30 60 80 80
Rome 71 56 68 55 / 20 50 80 80
Peachtree City 72 58 69 56 / 20 60 80 80
Vidalia 74 62 70 62 / 30 40 80 80