Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240551
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1251 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 859 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018/

UPDATE...
Frontal boundary remains just to the NW of the forecast area. The
front currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back
through the ARKLATEX. Showers have popped up across eastern AL in
the warm, moist flow off the GOMEX. Have tweaked the pops to
reflect current conditions and to bring more in line with the hi-
res reflectivity models. Chances for thunder are pretty nil for
the CWFA overnight, so have removed the mention. The current
thunderstorms are within the better mid level lapse rates across
NW AL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 458 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018/

UPDATE...
Climate section has been corrected below. Corrections were made to
the KATL and KMCN maximum temperature records for 02-24. These
locations set new records for this date in 2017.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

High pressure off the SE coast will continue to usher in moist
southerly flow through the period.  As a trough digs into central
CONUS, this will start to suppress the current ridge in place. This
will also supply higher PWats to the area early Saturday. Therefore,
we expect CU development to erode by the evening hours with some
mid/high level clouds moving into the region well ahead of the main
system to the west. A piece of energy riding between the incoming
trough and exiting ridge will aid in better precipitation coverage
across far north GA by early tomorrow morning. Some guidance is
suggesting we will saturate quickly across the area resulting in
scattered showers during the morning hours, expanding farther
south...although coverage looks quite minimal through the remainder
of tomorrow afternoon. The front associated with the trough will
slowly approach Sunday morning with a line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms expected to edge closer to the NW tier near sunrise
Sunday.  Given the lack of instability, only have a mention of
isolated thunder associated with the heavier shower activity.

Fog tomorrow morning may be possible yet again.  However, the
overall extent does not seem as widespread as compared to today. Still
thinking portions of east central up toward Athens will see some
reduced visibilities, but this should erode through mid-morning.
With the wind increasing from the south in the morning, there should
be a bit more mixing at the surface to avoid stagnant low level
moisture.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal through the period.

26

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Main adjustment was to increase some categorical pops with
advancement of slow moving cold front Sunday and then have a
slightly less progressive (already slow) trend to decrease pops
from the NW later Monday. Still have a portion of the area in a
Marginal Risk for extreme NW late Saturday and then centered along
the I-85 corridor for Sunday. Thinking isolated threat cannot be
ruled out despite meager instability since deep layer shear is
supportive. Guidance has large discrepancies on when moisture
field pushes east of the area with midweek disturbances so did not
change this portion of the previous forecast. Otherwise minor
adjustments made per latest model blend. Previous discussion
follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018/

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
A rather active wet pattern looks to be in store this long term
period with 2 rounds overall expected.

The first round will be increasing Saturday night and Sunday and
continuing Sunday night and diminishing Monday. This will be due
to a cold front moving into the area on Sunday with a moist SW flow
aloft associated. It is unclear if the front will stall across
the area as the European model is indicating, with a wave on the
front forecast to move across the area on Monday ending the rain
chances. Or, the front just moves slowly E and S as the GFS is
indicating. In the both cases, a moist SW upper flow is providing
deep moisture. Both models end the precip during the day on Monday.
There is some instability associated across the area and low level
wind shear across mainly n GA early on Sunday. A slight chance or a
chance of thunderstorms can be expected into Monday.

There looks to be a break in the rain chances Monday night and
Tuesday before the second round of wet weather begins.

The GFS and European models are rather consistent with deep
moisture returning with overrunning southerly flow kicking in
Tuesday night and for the most part, continuing Wednesday before
another cold front moves to the area on Thursday with some
thunderstorm chances Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain chances will
ending quickly either late Thursday or early Thursday night.

N GA will be the target for the greatest rainfall with both rounds
and conditions will be monitored for any flooding potential.
Severe storm potential for n GA is low but not zero during round 1
and will be monitored as well.

For the most part, temperatures will continue well above normal
this low term period.

BDL

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2017     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939
                2012
                1980
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963
                1909

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989
                                                    1967
                                                    1947
   KATL      78 2017     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989
                                                    1947
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989
   KMCN      81 2017     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901

Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967
                            1967
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967

26


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR ceilings across the area but expecting some MVFR ceilings
between 10-14z across the area. Ceiling will lift back up into the
VFR range by 15-16z. Winds will start out of the SE then turn to
the SW around sunrise. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or less with
some gust to 15kt this afternoon. No restrictions to VSBYs
expected. There will be some light showers across the area today
but they will be very isolated so decided to leave them out of the
TAF for now.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  63  74  58 /  20  20  80  90
Atlanta         78  63  72  56 /  20  20  90  90
Blairsville     72  59  65  51 /  30  40  90  90
Cartersville    77  62  67  53 /  20  30  90  90
Columbus        80  65  74  60 /  10  20  70  90
Gainesville     74  61  69  54 /  20  20  80  90
Macon           81  62  77  61 /  20  20  60  90
Rome            78  62  67  52 /  20  60  90  90
Peachtree City  78  63  71  57 /  20  20  90  90
Vidalia         81  62  82  63 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01


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