Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 292340
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016
For 00z TAFs/Aviation.
Clouds across the norther tier a bit more persistent this
evenings as the upper low anchored to the north shifts slightly
southward. Feel SCT clouds may make it to the metro this evening,
but should dissipate with drier air working in. Clear and calm for
much of the area, with clouds still hanging around NE GA. This may
hinger temperatures from radiating out overnight, but we will
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Very little if any impact weather across north/central Georgia
through Friday night.
Latest Water Vapor satellite imagery showing broad upper level low
over western Kentucky, drifting south. This feature has been the
main player in bringing much-welcomed cooler and drier air across
north and central Georgia today.
The seasonally cool and dry conditions will persist over the next
couple days even as this upper low begins to retrograde back to the
north. Expect overnight temps to dip into the 40s and 50s for many
locations beneath mainly clear skies. Winds should decouple most
areas by sunset this evening. Friday will be very similar to today,
if not a few degrees cooler in spots - especially extreme southern
counties (Americus to Dublin/Vidalia areas) where the cooler air had
yet to reach so far today.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Medium range models remain in fairly good agreement through most of
the extended forecast period and have not deviated significantly from
recent runs. There is some divergence between the GFS and ECMWF late
in the period, but not beyond what would be expected that far into
the future. All-in-all I made minimal changes to the extended
Please see the previous extended forecast discussion below.
LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
The extended portion of the forecast remains quiet.
High pressure at the surface will dominate for much of the extended
forecast. The surface ridging begins to weaken by the end of next
week as a cold front begins to approach the Mississippi River.
Aloft, a long wave trough will dominate across the eastern US
through early next week. By the middle of the week, ridging begins
to build across the area. So, will all of this said, a dry and
seasonable forecast will hold.
One thing to keep an eye on though, is the progression of TS
Matthew. For now, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the storm well to the
east of the CWFA.
VFR conditions through the TAF period with very pleasant flying
conditions expected. A deep upper low anchored in the Ohio River
Valley has ushered some cloud cover across the northern tier of
GA. Some of these clouds could drift south toward the metro TAF
sites. Thus have introduced a SCT 6KFT deck through the evening
hours. Anticipate lowering CIGS across the higher elevations, but
not impacting any TAF sites. Should be clear and fairly calm
conditions elsewhere tonight. NW flow continues through tomorrow.
With very little moisture within the atmospheric column, feel
clouds will be limited. However, can not rule out some diurnally
driven CU around 5KFT.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence is High on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 53 77 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 53 75 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 45 71 47 76 / 5 5 5 5
Cartersville 49 75 51 80 / 0 0 0 5
Columbus 56 80 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 53 74 54 79 / 0 0 0 5
Macon 54 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 49 75 50 80 / 5 5 0 5
Peachtree City 51 76 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 61 83 59 86 / 5 0 0 0