Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 210519
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1219 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017



.UPDATE...
Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 955 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017/

UPDATE...
Cirrus clouds continue to stream into the CWA tonight...as a
rather anomalous storm system slowly migrates our way from the
west. This storm system is composed of multiple vort maxes
residing within extremely elongated cyclonic flow pattern/trough
that extends N-S across the entire central U.S. Overnight tonight
the northern stream section of this trough will move more quickly
east than the more closed off southern stream section that will
affect our region tomorrow.

Tonight still expecting mild temps with lows in the 50s. Cloud
cover will continue to increase as heights aloft begin to fall.

Did not make any changes to the forecast tomorrow. Still expecting
rain showers to push into the area from the west by early-mid
afternoon. Lift will be established via DCVA from anomalous
closed low along with isentropic upglide as a very weak sfc wedge
sets in across eastern Ga and weak sfc low over AL/MS /associated
with closed mid level low/ pulls in Gulf moisture. Wedge still
looks to keep conditions too stable for appreciable thunder
chances...though still seeing some minute values of MUCAPE showing
up in models. Not impossible isolated lightning strikes could
occur...but cooler mid level lapse rates remain displaced to the
west so think best chances will stay confined to Alabama and areas
west and south. Another warm day with highs upper 60s-mid 70s
expected.

For those interested in weather: Encourage you to watch the
progression of this closed low as it takes a rather unusual path
across the Gulf and Bahamas this week. It is not often you see
such a strong closed low track that far south.

Kovacik

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 210 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
CWA enjoying another abnormally warm late afternoon/evening with
some places paced to get near record highs in the mid to upper 70s
(see climate section below) as ridge-dominated regime continues.
This ridge should transition into a hybrid wedge as the parent sfc
high slides off the New England coast by Tuesday afternoon. This
feature should keep the environment stabilized despite the approach
of an upper cutoff trough from the west and its translated sfc low
near the northern Gulf. Nam 295 k theta sfc indicates the typical
isentropic upglide kicking in and resultant increased shower chances
by afternoon then really filling in area-wide through Tuesday night.
Precip should stay light to moderate at times with storm totals near
a quarter to third of an inch before all is pushed east of us in the
early long term (Wednesday). Progged instability even for the most
unstable parcels is close to nil so keeping any thunder mention out.
While temps should be held lower than today...they are still fcst to
be about 10 deg above climo in the 60s north to 70s south. Will seem
cooler due to the cloud coverage, lingering showers, and enhanced
gradient winds out of the SE.

Baker

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Mainly only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The extended forecast begins with a frontal system over the area.
This front brings increased chances of showers to the CWA Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday. The forecast models differ a bit on
the strength and intensity of this next system but they both show
it weakening as it pushes into GA. There is very little
instability with it so continuing with showers and no mention of
thunder. This weakening system keeps increased moisture over the
area through the end of the work week so will keep slight chance
to chance pops across the area through then. Another short wave
and associated cold front will move out of the midwest and into
the eastern US Friday evening. This system is expected to have a
little more instability with it so keeping in the mention of
isolated thunderstorms for Friday/Friday Night. This second front
appears to move east of the CWA Sat afternoon and clear things
out for Sunday.

01

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015
                                        1994        1934
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015
                                        1917
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015
                1986

Records for 02-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885
                1925
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958
                                        1971
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue through the morning hours with MVFR
cigs advecting into the TAF areas this afternoon with IFR cigs
developing after 00Z tonight. Showers will move into the western
TAF sites late this morning...spreading across the rest of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. The showers will persist
into tonight. Winds will be east to southeast through the forecast
with speeds around 10 kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on timing of onset of MVFR and IFR cigs.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  54  67  54 /  60  90  70  20
Atlanta         70  57  67  56 /  80  90  60  10
Blairsville     64  50  62  49 /  80  90  80  20
Cartersville    68  54  67  53 /  80  90  70  10
Columbus        74  58  72  56 /  80  90  30  10
Gainesville     66  53  63  53 /  80  90  80  20
Macon           75  59  73  56 /  60  70  30  20
Rome            68  55  67  53 /  80  90  70  10
Peachtree City  71  55  68  53 /  80  90  50  10
Vidalia         76  60  74  59 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17


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