Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 250542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
ENTERING NW AL AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS
TO ENTER NW GA AROUND 200 AM EDT AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTH GA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE CWA. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 09-12Z AS CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS
BRINGS ABOUT 400 J/KG OF MUCAPE COUPLED WITH NEAR 25 KTS OF 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR...50-60 KTS 0-6KM BULK...AND HELICITY OF 150-200 IN 0-1KM
LAYER. WHILE THE SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE...THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE LOW INSTABILITY IN THE
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CG
LIGHTNING AS MAIN THREATS /TIMING AND COVERAGE ALSO SUPPORTIVE BASED
ON LOCAL WRF SOLUTION/. WHILE INSTABILITY INCREASES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
SO ONLY SPARSE COVERAGE AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GA AND
POSSIBLE WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ON THE EXIT AND SOME CLEARING OCCURRING BY MID AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. QPF ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH THOUGH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...WENT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS. LOOKING TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF FRONT TONIGHT BUT COULD BE TRICKY WITH TIMING OF CLOUD
COVERAGE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL GA BASED ON
RESULTANT RH VALUES AND LOW END WINDS.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. HAVE MADE MINOR EDITS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE TO REFRESH
CURRENT THINKING...GENERALLY WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS. MORE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
MADE TO MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY POPS AND QPF WITH
THE NEXT BIG RAIN MAKER. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SEEMINGLY
UNREALISTIC QPF AMOUNTS...WITH NORTH GEORGIA BLANKETED WITH
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3.5-4.5 INCHES FOR THE 48-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...BUT STILL HOLDING
ON TO WIDESPREAD 1-2 WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO SHOW 1.5-2 INCH QPF ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND 1-1.5 INCHES
FOR MIDDLE GEORGIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE
PUSHED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY...AND MODELED
CAPES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT LIKELY THUNDER MENTION. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 405 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH IN THE SHORT TERM WILL EXIT THE
STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND KEEP NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE STATE BEGINS DEVELOPING AS AN
UNORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO A TIGHT CLOSED LOW
AND MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY MONDAY MORNING. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO NW GA MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE FRONT SO
LOOKING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS
LOOKING MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AL. THE PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE HAD TO ADD PRECIP TO THE
TAF. AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST.
HAVE ADDED VCSH AND A TEMPO GROUP. MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE TEMPO
GROUP IN FURTHER AMD IF LINE DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. CIGS SHOULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  52  84  55 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         78  55  81  59 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  45  80  48 /  50  10   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    76  49  82  53 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        80  57  83  59 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  53  81  57 /  30   5   0   5
MACON           82  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            77  48  85  52 /  10   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  79  50  82  52 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         85  60  84  60 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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