Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 270717
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
317 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017


.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
A couple of showers remain across far north Georgia, likely in
association with an outflow boundary from convection earlier on
Wednesday. These lingering showers should continue to dissipate
through the morning hours with areas of patchy fog possible. A cold
front will continue making its way southward over the Ohio Valley
through the day today which is where the main convective focus will
remain. For our area, expect another day of scattered afternoon
convection as instability builds into the afternoon and evening. As
has been the case the last several days, given the relatively strong
instability, a few storms could pulse to severe limits bringing
damaging wind gusts. Convection will propagate and form along
outflow boundaries through the evening before largely waning after
sunset.

A more active day is expected on Friday as the aforementioned cold
front approaches the region. This cold front will bring increasing
thunderstorm chances especially across the northern half of the area
on Friday as it moves southward. There still remains some
uncertainty regarding the timing of upper level energy in
association with front as well as the effect of increasing cloud
cover on instability; however, given a more favorable kinematic and
thermodynamic environment the opportunity for severe thunderstorms
will increase through the day on Friday. With increasing 0-6 km bulk
shear values in far north Georgia to around 30 knots by Friday
afternoon, thunderstorms with damaging winds appear to be the
primary threat. Additionally, PWATs remain quite high ahead of the
front (generally 2-2.3"), so heavy rainfall will also be a concern.

Temperatures today will be hot, with most areas reaching the low to
mid 90s for highs. Heat indices, while hot, will remain below
advisory criteria at 95-100 degrees for most areas. With the
approaching front and associated thunderstorms on Friday,
temperatures across north Georgia will be held largely into the 80s
while central Georgia will remain hot with highs in the mid 90s.

RW


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
Models continue in good agreement through the long term. Short wave
moving across southern Canada will dig into the eastern trough and
develop a closed low over the Delmarva Peninsula. This will push the
cold front into south Georgia by Saturday. Drier air will spread
over the CWA Saturday into Saturday night ending the precipitation
from the north. Dry and stable air will hold over the region for
Sunday and Monday with dewpoints in the 60s across the CWA. As
another short wave drops out of the upper plains and into the
eastern trough, the upper low will fill and the trough will broaden
making for a messy pattern. Will trend pops back to climatology.
Temperatures through the long term will be at or just below
normals.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
A couple of isolated heavy showers have developed across far
north Georgia but are expected to remain removed from TAF sites.
Ceilings and vsbys remain VFR at all TAF sites at this time. Some
MVFR ceilings remain possible after 08-09z, especially in central
GA, though uncertainty remains regarding overall extent. Expect CU
field to develop in the 3500-5000 ft range by midday with
afternoon TSRA chances returning. Winds remain on the east side
through around 15-17z when a shift to the west is expected to
occur at ATL/AHN area sites.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning MVFR development.
High confidence other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  73  90  72 /  30  20  50  50
Atlanta         92  75  89  72 /  30  20  50  50
Blairsville     86  68  80  66 /  40  30  70  70
Cartersville    92  73  87  70 /  30  20  60  70
Columbus        94  76  93  75 /  30  20  30  50
Gainesville     90  73  86  71 /  30  20  50  60
Macon           94  74  94  75 /  30  20  30  50
Rome            93  74  86  70 /  30  20  70  70
Peachtree City  92  73  90  72 /  30  20  50  50
Vidalia         90  74  93  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RW


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