Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 260024
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME. DEEP TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED
THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF THE STATE WITH IT. AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE ROTATING OUT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE ANOTHER
0.5-0.75 INCH OF QPF...WITH METRO ATLANTA LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
EXPECT THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MOVED OUT
OF THE METRO AREA AS WEDNESDAY TRAVELERS START HITTING THE ROAD
/NOT THE CASE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST/. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE
FAST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...
MAYBE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEEMS A PRETTY SURE BET THAT THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR BRASSTOWN SHOW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DENDRITES TO
FORM WITH A VERY DRY PROFILE ABOVE THE -10C LINE. QPF TOTALS WITH
THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH IN GENERAL...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR WILL BE VERY VERY LIGHT AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND A DUSTING AT BEST FOR THAT. THE CLIPPER AND
PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED.

TDP

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EXTREME NORTH GA. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE
STATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

41/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING MVFR EVERYWHERE WITH
-RA MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN
00-04Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH
CIGS LIFTING AGAIN TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT...WITH A MORE RAPID
LIFTING TREND BETWEEN 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS NNW TO NW THROUGH
THE PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT...A LITTLE LOWER OVERNIGHT...BACKING
MORE W TO WSW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH ON TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF WITH RAIN MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
CURRENTLY CEILINGS ARE BKN100 AND ABOVE IN THE ATL AREA BUT THEY
WILL FALL TO OVC020 BY 06-08Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. SHOULD SEE PRECIP MAINLY OVER NIGHT ENDING BY 11-13Z.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT WEDNESDAY BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15-16Z.
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE NW OVERNIGHT THEN SWITCH TO THE
SW BY 20Z WED. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY 10KT OR LESS. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN AND
AROUND ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  53  35  52 / 100  60   0   0
ATLANTA         41  52  36  50 /  70  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     37  48  33  46 /  80  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    38  51  34  50 /  60  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  57  38  54 /  80  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     40  51  35  49 /  90  50   5   5
MACON           41  57  36  56 / 100  40   0   0
ROME            37  52  33  50 /  40  20   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  37  53  33  51 /  80  30   0   0
VIDALIA         46  57  38  57 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01



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