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851
FXUS63 KFSD 291139
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
639 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Main wave continues to slide east, while a weaker wave is progged
to move over the area during the day, so expect showers for most
of the day today. Location of the warm front will determine the
northern extent of more significant type of storms/weather. Models
vary greatly with its placement and with the ongoing convection
across Iowa and Nebraska masking its current location. I think
the warm front is currently further south than what the models
depict. All models bring the warm front north during the day, but
right now I`m leaning toward the more southern location
solutions. Storms will still develop along elevated warm front and
hence went with higher pops across southern sections of the CWA,
but feel even higher pops will be to the south of forecast area.
Severe Weather possible today, but the bigger threat will be
south of the area where better shear is forecast to occur per
model soundings.

Storms will be a little slow to exit the area, but expect most of
the activity to be to the east by 12z Friday. Temperatures will be
cooler today than those of yesterday due to influence of the
cooler air behind yesterday`s front, but also because of cloud
cover and precip.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Northwest flow takes over on Friday, with cold air advection regime
creating elevated instability. Ongoing convection from the overnight
hours will exit to the east in the morning, with a possible lull in
activity late morning into midday. Elevated front moves through in
the afternoon, and will spark additional scattered showers and non-
severe thunderstorms primarily in the afternoon and early evening.
Activity is expected to diminish around sunset. Highs will be a
degree or two cooler than today, in the 70s.

Saturday will be quite pleasant with dry northwest flow aloft and
relatively light surface winds shifting to the south or southwest.
Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with mild temperatures
in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Sunday will see highs in the 80s areawide. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase in the afternoon and evening as a shortwave dives
across the region and a warm front potentially sets up near
northwest Iowa and the Missouri Valley. Secondary wave will keep
unsettle weather into Monday, with additional chance for
thunderstorms.

Upper ridge begins to rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday, but models
also begin to diverge quickly heading into Wednesday night and
Thursday. Temperatures will be warmer, with the lower 90s returning
to south central SD.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

scattered -shra and -tsra will be possible through 06z for areas
south of interstate 90, specifically KFSD and KSUX. Some storms
could be severe in the KSUX area due to the proximity of the warm
front and also better vertical shear profile. Widespread severe
weather should stay south of the forecast area. Shower activity
will be to the east of the area by early Friday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heitkamp
LONG TERM...Hanko
AVIATION...Heitkamp