Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 070352
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
952 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUBTLE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
USHERED IN SOME THICKER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND TURNED WINDS NORTHWEST.
LATER THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY TURN WEST SOUTHWEST AGAIN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DROP
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PUSH. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 - MAINLY IN THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS STRATUS
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY THIN AND WITHOUT A LOT OF LIFT...SO WILL
KEEP THE GOING FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE MAY BECOME POSSIBLE BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
RIGHT NOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING.

STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING BEFORE THINNING
DURING MIDDAY. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEASONALLY MILD.
EVEN WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TOUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS WAVE DROPS DOWN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  ATMOSPHERE SUFFER FROM SATURATION ISSUES ABOVE
2000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT INCLUDING THE DENDRITIC LAYER.  THIS BRINGS
PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION...BUT MAINLY APPEARS TO BE A FREEZING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EVENT IF IT PRECIPS AT ALL.
FRONTOGENETIC BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH KISSING JETS
PROVIDING ADDED LIFT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE UTILIZED WITH ALL THE SATURATION OCCURRING IN
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD MELT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON
SUNDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.  FURTHER TO
THE EAST...EXPECT LESS OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

SPLIT JET FLOW ACROSS THE US WITH NORTHERN STREAM BUCKLED UP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SECOND BRANCH OF THE JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH JET FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH...HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED BUT AM STILL SHY OF FULL MIXOUT BY 5-7 DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY COMING DOWN ON THURSDAY...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WITH BOUNDARY- BUT CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IF TODAY/S WARMING IS ANY INDICATION...WILL HAVE A NICE
TASTE OF SPRING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90. FURTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE WILL BE LESS PLENTIFUL
AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED. EXPECT STRATUS TO THIN
THROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT ONCE AGAIN THICKEN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...THOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
06-12Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...


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