Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
419 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are currently clear
with light winds. Temperatures are ranging from the upper 20s into
the 30s...with more fluctuations to come thru sunrise as a veil of
high cloud is moving off the Rockies and should move thru the area
over the next couple of hours. The increase in cloud cover should
allow for temps to stabilize and/or rise during this time.

For today...nice day on tap for the area as msunny/sunny skies to
prevail with surface high pressure to shift more east of the region
to allow for SSW flow to set up. Despite the cold start to the
morning...the region will see daytime highs into the lower 60s.
Going into tonight...high pressure remains east of the CWA with SSW
flow over the area. This will allow for slight warmer conditions
versus tonight w/ lower to mid 30s across the area.

For Sunday on thru next Monday night...strong H5/H7 ridging over the
western portion of the country...combined with surface high pressure
south and east of the CWA...will allow for strong WAA pattern to
work into the area w/ record high temperatures possible both days.
The area will see daytime highs Sunday in the lower to mid 70s and
for Monday...75 to 80 degrees(some western locales could even break
the 80F mark). These forecasted high temps are 25 to 35 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

Please refer to the Climate section below for area records.

Overnight lows for Sunday and Monday night will be dropping into the
mid and upper 30s...still around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

With no precipitation expected over the 72-hour period...low RH
readings below 20 percent will ensue for locales along and west of
Highway 27 for both Sunday and Monday. Winds will not meet criteria
for Red Flag conditions but near critical conditions do exist and
need to be monitored...especially on Monday where winds will be a
bit stronger than Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 204 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

Late guidance has come in better alignment on evolution/track of
trough passage Tuesday-Tuesday night and now favors closed center
remaining much further south towards the Texas Panhandle. This
would likely keep dry conditions, with shortwave ridging quickly
overspreading our CWA. I kept slight chance PoPs in place Tuesday
evening in line with timing of main trough passage to avoid "flip
flopping" the forecast due to previous inconsistencies. If this
trend continues with the next round of models, it is probably safe
to pull PoPs and count on a dry forecast.

Post frontal air mass and lowered heights heights aloft should still
support seasonal temperatures at least through Thursday. By Friday
some flavor of ridging and rising heights is indicated by models, so
we may see a warming trend once again late next week or next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 419 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

Conditions...VFR w/ FEW150-250.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...WSW around 10kts thru 06z Sunday then W
around 10 kts. For KMCK...LGT/VAR thru 19z then SW around 10kts.
By 05z Sunday...LGT/VAR.


Issued at 223 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

Record high temperatures are possible at the following locations
November 26:

Goodland..........72 degrees in 1998 and previous years
Burlington........77 degrees in 1960
Yuma..............73 degrees in 1960

Record high temperatures are possible at the following locations
November 27:

Goodland..........75 degrees in 1949
Hill City.........76 degrees in 2009
McCook............73 degrees in 1960
Burlington........77 degrees in 1949
Colby.............78 degrees in 1904
Tribune...........78 degrees in 1995
Yuma..............74 degrees in 1998




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