Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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157
FXUS63 KGLD 102300
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE EATEN INTO THE SNOWPACK TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE WARMER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO
STAY RATHER HIGH DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS. MORE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS IS WILL CREATE A LIGHT UPSLOPE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
FIELD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE NOW NOT ONLY INDICATING A RATHER
HIGH CHANCE OF STRATUS BUT ALSO FOG IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.
AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG FROM THE
MIDDLE OF TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TOMORROW.

HAVE TEMPERATURES COOLER PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE/OVERNIGHT
FORECASTER REASONING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STRATUS AND FOG
BURN OFF...THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TOMORROWS MAXES
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME MORE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY....A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW WILL KICK A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS
FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE STRATUS FOLLOWING THE INITIAL FROPA WHICH COMPLICATES HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY. ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS...BUT I STILL MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IN
OUR NORTHEAST.

BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
NORTH...HOWEVER NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIGHT QPF SIGNAL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER CORRELATING WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. THIS
RAISES CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT IF IT
IS REALIZED. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
SREF PROBABILITIES AND NAM VIS/BL RH FIELDS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. BL
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE HOWEVER AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A SHALLOW DRY LAYER IN LINE WITH INCREASED NEAR SURFACE MIXING.
THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN FOG...BUT AT THIS POINT I DIDNT WANT TO
RULE IT OUT IF WINDS DO NOT MIX. I ADDED PATCHY FREEZING
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE IS STILL A QUESTION MARK.

MODELS SHOW LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERN FLOW SUPPORTING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT (PARTICULARLY IN
OUR WEST). NAM/SREF ARE SLOW TO CLEAR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP STALLED FRONT OVER OUR CWA. THE RESULT COULD
BE A LARGE SPREAD IN HIGHS OVER OUR CWA WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
CLEARING IN THE FAR WEST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
US SUNDAY AND SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A FEW QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVES INITIALLY AS THE PLAINS REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW...HOWEVER
WITH SUBSTANTIAL/DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE MEASURABLE PRECIP
APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THESE FEATURES. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S RETURNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS/GEFS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD BY
WEDNESDAY AS ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDING AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH...WHICH GFS KEEPS THE RIDGING IN PLACE. FOR NOW I LEANED
TOWARDS CONSENSUS/PERSISTENCE (ABOVE NORMAL/DRY).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARAIBLE NEAR KMCK AND WITH CLEAR SKIES, STRATUS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS AT KMCK COULD LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN AT KMCK BY MIDDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS



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