Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240046
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
646 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPDATED TO DECREASE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH
WAS MOVING EASTWARD.  ALONG THE TROUGH AND UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SOME SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE FEATURE.  MORE ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY.

THIS EVENING STORM COVERAGE WILL REACH A PEAK THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING DISSIPATES.  OVERNIGHT KEPT IN SOME VERY
LOW CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING LIFT PRIOR TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT.

WEDNESDAY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST THEN THE
EAST BEHIND IT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION WHICH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED LOW AND MAKE ONLY
VERY SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST HINT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. BY THAT TIME IT IS WEAKENING AND
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD BUT PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK VERY GOOD FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW COOLING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...REACHING NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. HAVE LEFT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
ANY ONE SHOWER ACTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MCK OR GLD TAF SITE IS
VERY LOW. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BY ABOUT 18Z AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BEFORE WEAKENING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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