Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280552
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...THE AREA FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR. WE HAVE HAD A MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION FROM WPC ISSUED FOR OUR AREA AND CAN DEFINITELY SEE THE
POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE OUR
NORTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SOME RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY IN THE NEXT 1
TO 2 TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH.

SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT FOR ALL
OF THE AREA BUT GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO RAISED
POPS AND QPF IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL LET DAY
SHIFT TAKE CARE OF THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

MESSY SITUATION WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO WHICH WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...SFC HEATING WILL GENERATE POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH TSRA DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AT THE MOMENT WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GENERATE A
SECOND AREA OF TSRA WHICH WILL REACH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
AGAIN THIS EVENING IN WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN EASTERN AREAS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
SO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED. STORMS WILL END WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN
FAR EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY
AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO WILL BRING SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DECLINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN NEAR
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRICKY SET OF TAFS DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST KGLD...SOME SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND KGLD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LAST AFFECT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A GUST
FRONT.

AFTER THE GUST FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS END...LIGHT UPSLOPE TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL ALLOW A FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS
AND SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL END AROUND 15Z WITH THE
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR AROUND 18Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT AT THIS TIME I EXPECT THEM TO BE
EAST OF THE KGLD SITE.

AT KMCK...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON BE AFFECTING
THE KMCK SITE. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS LINE. AFTER
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THERE...FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
SITE WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH KMCK HAVING A BETTER CHANCE THAN KGLD SO INCLUDED VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE REFINED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER


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