Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290931
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE COLD AIR
ARRIVES. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW THRU THE DAY ON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA...PUSHING THRU BY
THE AFTERNOON HRS SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION GIVING THE AREA A COLD NIGHT UNDER
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO TODAY...AND THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SEEN IN THE PAST
24 HRS. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 70S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS.(PLEASE
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.) THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE MORNING HRS ALLOWING FOR MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN UP WHICH WILL BE
A GOOD BASE TO FORECASTED HIGHS. ALSO FOR TODAY ARE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA WHICH BRING ABOUT FIRE WX CONCERNS.
LOW HUMIDITY READINGS NEAR 10-15 PERCENT WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THE
AREA WILL ONLY SEE 5-10 MPH( LOCALIZED 15 MPH ) WINDS
TODAY...WHICH KEEPS FIRE WX PRODUCT ISSUANCE AT BAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO NEAR NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE 20S. LARGE
TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD AT SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP ON WAY TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE ALONG NORTHERN ZONES BY
12Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THRU MIDDAY. WITH THE EARLY
ARRIVAL...THE CWA WILL SEE EARLY DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S...WITH A FEW SPOT 40S IN SW ZONES. INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AT AND BEHIND FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT LOW CLOUDS BEFORE
CLEARING TOWARDS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM MAY ONLY
ALLOW FOR FLURRIES OR EVEN PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AS UNCERTAIN ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH LIFT IS PRESENT ALONG BOUNDARY.

GRADIENT/MIXING BEHIND EXPECTED FRONT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TO NEAR 20-30MPH BEFORE TAPERING WITH SFC HIGH APPROACH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONG CAA WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN ALL AREAS...WITH ANY REMAINING WIND BRINGING
WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SFC RIDGE BEHIND
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIND SHIFT FROM THE NNE TO THE SSE. THIS WILL
BRING SFC FLOW PUSHING UP INTO THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THRU 14Z MONDAY.
AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER AREA TO GIVE CWA ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2014

PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN THE ANTICIPATED DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. EVEN THROUGH THERE IS A SHORT
WAVE/COLD FRONT LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE... IF ANY... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER
THE AREA AND INFLUENCE THE RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

GOODLAND......75 IN 2003
HILL CITY.....70 IN 2003
MCCOOK........73 IN 2003
BURLINGTON....72 IN 2003
COLBY.........75 IN 1998
TRIBUNE.......76 IN 1998
YUMA..........71 IN 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...LOCKHART
CLIMATE...JN


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