Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 311118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Last bit of shortwave energy rotating around the southern plains
anticyclone will keep scattered thunderstorms going today,
gradually ending tonight. Instability/shear parameters remain
similar to yesterday, but with cloud cover keeping temperatures
relatively cool, instability may be a little lower. Nonetheless,
with deep layer shear remaining below 20kts the severe threat will
be rather limited. Primary hazard will continue to be locally
heavy rainfall/flash flooding with slow moving storms in a very
moist environment.

Areas of fog/patchy dense fog will persist through mid to late
morning today, then redevelop overnight tonight and into Thursday

After the morning fog burns off, Thursday will be dry as a ridge
builds over the area aloft.

Friday will see storms in eastern Colorado during the afternoon
as southwest flow develops aloft around the base of a system
entering the northern Rockies. These storms will spread eastward
into the remainder of the area Friday night. Instability and shear
will be better compared to the last few days with the stronger
flow aloft, especially in Colorado where there might be a marginal
risk for a severe storm or two. Further east instability and shear
will diminish, so storms will likely weaken as the move into those

Temperatures will be below normal today due to cloudiness and
precipitation, then slightly below normal on Thursday and near
normal on Friday with more sun expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

In the extended period there will be a persistent southwesterly flow
into the region. This is due to troughing in the western CONUS and
ridging in the eastern CONUS (excluding regions impacted by the
tropical storm/depression). This flow pattern will allow moisture to
be pushed north into the CWA which will help with precipitation
development. For the most part, there are shower and storm chances
each day during the extended period due to 700 mb shortwaves moving
through the primary mid level flow. Come Monday into Tuesday, a cold
front could potentially impact the CWA Nebraska counties, which
could enhance storm development in those areas. Previous guidance
had the cold front potentially moving through the CWA from the north
but current guidance keeps it, for the most part, to our north. Will
keep an eye on this as next week approaches.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 80s during the extended
period, with a possible cool down into the 70s early next week with
the approaching cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

VLIFR in fog/low clouds will slowly improve through this morning.
However it may take until early afternoon to reach VFR as
ceilings will be slow to rise in moist environment and light
upslope winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through this afternoon, gradually diminishing tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. Tonight, areas of fog and low
clouds will redevelop overnight, with VLIFR possible once again
towards sunrise Thursday morning.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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