Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 260339
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HI PRES
TO PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT AUNTUMNAL CONDITIONS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY...WITH AN AREA OF HI PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WAS
PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
WIND GUSTS SURPASSING 30 MPH AT TIMES (EVEN A 40+ GUST AT IMT). A
DRY AIR MASS OVER WI ALLOWED FOR 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPS RESPONDED BY REACHING THE UPR 50S NORTH...LWR
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TNGT...
BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO NE WI. NOT AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT THO AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO ONLY
SUBSIDE TO 20 KTS AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME WEAK WAA UNDERWAY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...A COOL NGT...BUT NOT BELOW NORMAL.
LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 30 DEGS N-CNTRL WI (PERHAPS
A FEW UPR 20S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS)...TO THE
UPR 30S OVER DOOR COUNTY.

THE SFC HI SLIDES TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN FLOW
INTO WI AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME S-SE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAA TO CONT THRU SUNDAY AS 8H
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +10C BY 00Z MON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL
LACKING AND WRMFNT TO STILL BE SITUATED WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY...THUS OTHER THAN INCREASING HI CLOUDS THRU THE DAY...
A MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE AND
WAA...MAX TEMPS WL ACTUALLY BE COOLER THAN SAT MAINLY DUE TO THE
COOL START TO THE DAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID
50S N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 60 DEGS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY IN PERIOD IS STRONG TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY. 25/12Z GFS AND
ECMWF MORE INLINE AND CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME ELEVATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
AS STRONG WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. STABILITY
WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT ISOLATED TSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
SHOULD SEE INITIAL WAA PRECIP END MONDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STALLING OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH
UNDER INVERSION TO KEEP STRATUS/DRIZZLE AROUND...THOUGH A FEW
BREAKS POSSIBLE. MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING STORM
REMAINS.

ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.

MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN SET TO MOVE IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH INTO N U.S. UPPER SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY
MAY PRODUCE RAIN-->SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURS/THURS NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A WARM
FRONT SHIFTS NORTH TOWARD WISCONSIN...AND A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.

LLWS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT RHI/AUW/CWA LATE SUNDAY
EVENING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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