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000
FXUS63 KGRR 080454
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A QUIET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

NOT MUCH PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PCPN WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVING EAST. THIS PCPN IS
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ALPENA TO
MADISON. 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. FEEL WE/LL SEE DYNAMICAL COOLING AS THE PCPN MOVES
EAST. GIVEN SFC TEMPS STILL NEAR 40 ACROSS THE CWA...WE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AND HAVE GONE WITH A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK WAVE ENERGY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE RAIN OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO SNOW. HRRR AND
GFS SEEM TO BE A PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SOME FREEZING PRECIP WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST.

NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT OR AMOUNT
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SNOWY SURFACES COULD SEE A QUICK
GLAZE OF ICE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW BUT
AGAIN...EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS VERY LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THIS
PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE STALLING OUT OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SATURDAY THAT WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW AND
AGAIN...LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST PCPN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH TO SE OF OUR FCST AREA.

12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD AND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERMOST PERIPHERY OF
THE PCPN MAY CLIP SOUTHERN MI WITH SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY. IT
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.

THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GLOBAL GEM DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE SFC LOW
REALLY NOT STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AS
THAT OCCURS. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT
LEAST FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TRANQUIL WX IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT THREE HOURS...OR THROUGH 09Z OR SO. EXPECTING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...TRENDING TOWARD ALL SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. LIGHT MVFR FOG/HAZE (3-5SM) WILL ALSO WORK
THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND ACT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
PROBABLY EVEN MORE SO THAN THE PRECIP.

CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER 08Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL PAINTING A
PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING PICTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THINKING WE MAY CLEAR OUT QUICKER AND STILL PLAYING THE TAFS THAT
WAY. FEEL THE MODELS ARE HANGING ON TO A BIT TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK AND
ICE COVER IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO REAL RAINMAKERS OR HEAT WAVES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LEADING TO PRETTY STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO