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000
FXUS63 KGRR 011926
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POP UP SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
BY TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS EVENING ISOLATED SVR STORM RISK WITH STRONGER CAPE LEADING TO
DEEPER CORES OF REFLECTIVITY. SHEAR IS WEAK. CELLS WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THERE IS ALSO ADDED LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 600 PM AS HEATING
DIMINISHES. WILL GO WITH AN EARLY EVENING PERIOD MENTIONING
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY MINUS THE LIFT. A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THE CELLS
WILL WEAKEN AS NIGHTFALL APPROACHES AND THE INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES.  WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WARMER AIR ARRIVES AROUND 600 MB FOR SUNDAY. WITH SHOULD ACT TO
LIMIT THE RISK OF ANY STORMS. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY AND WE TSRA IN THE
GRIDS TO COVER THAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER
THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS A CHANCE FROM YESTERDAY/S
MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUSLY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS REMAINING OVER THE
CWA WHICH NECESSITATED HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CWA. WE/VE GOT LOWER
POPS NOW UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. CAN/T GO COMPLETELY DRY THOUGH AS
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND DOWN SOME SHORT WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
BUT LOW LEVEL DRY CONDITIONS. THE PLAINS LOW THAT WAS PROGD OVER THE
NRN PLAINS IS NOW PROGD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH PLACES PCPN
FROM IT OVER ILLINOIS MIDWEEK INSTEAD OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS WILL
HOLD IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SCATTERED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A VCTS COMMENT IN THE TAFS EXCEPT AT KMKG
WHICH WILL BE IN THE LAKE SHADOW. PCPN WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT THE SRN TAF SITES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

HAZY/LIGHT FOG SITUATION OVER THE LAKE...WILL CONTINUE. WEAK WINDS
SUPPORT LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY UNDER 2 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THE WEATHER WILL BE
MAINLY DRY. RUNOFF WILL BE LIMITED DUE THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
STORMS. THE ONLY REAL POTENTIAL IMPACT WOULD BE ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING IF A STORM HAPPENED TO STALL OVER A CITY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS