Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 301513
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1113 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled to our south will return north as a warm front
today. This front will be preceded by showers and a few
thunderstorms through Monday morning. A warm humid air mass will
follow the warm front on Monday afternoon with another round of
showers and thunderstorms expected. Tropical moisture from the
remnants of Bonnie will be entrained in the frontal system and
could produce heavy rainfall and localized drainage flooding on
Memorial day. Two cold fronts will cross the area Monday and
Tuesday night with high pressure to follow Wednesday and
Thursday. An upper level trough could produce some rain towards
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1110 am Update...Have updated pops and temperatures based on
latest trends. Any steady light rain will be gone soon and the sun
will start to come out resulting in warming temperatures. Widely
sct storms may develop late this afternoon across the interior
with attendant threat of gusty winds and small hail. Latest
guidance suggests the best chance of storms today will be over
southernmost NH and perhaps the western ME mountains. Overall it
is not looking widespread.

845 am Update...Have updated the forecast a bit mainly for pops
over the next several hours based on latest trends in radar data
as well as mesoscale model data. Last band of steadier light rain
currently centered across southern NH will move across
southernmost maine in the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise, mostly dry
until widely sct showers and storms develop this afternoon.

Previously...

5 am ... just a quick adjustment to the PoP as radar shows rain
moving into New Hampshire a bit faster.

At 3 am... an area of rain was crossing Vermont and Southern New
England into southwest New Hampshire. This rain will continue to
move northeastwards crossing the southern portion of the forecast
area early this morning. The rain is being driven by two factors. To
the south, the remnants of Tropical Depression Bonnie is streaming
moist tropical air northward on the west side of a Bermuda high.
Satellite shows PWAT values as high as 2 in in this air mass with
values around 1.5 inches across much of New England. To the west a
short wave trough is moving out of the Great Lakes into western New
York. These two systems are creating a squeeze pushing the moisture
northwards up the coast. While PWAT is high... the area of rain is
now mainly stratiform forced by the synoptic squish and thus the
concern of heavy rainfall has abated as the rain continues to move.
The early morning timing will also keep any convective threat to a
minimum.

Today will be a bit of a paradox as rain creates sun which in turn
creates rain again. Ahead of the early morning rain the marine
layer is well entrenched along the coast with widespread drizzle
and fog. The morning rain will serve to move the marine layer out
allowing sun to break out from west to east across the region this
afternoon. The sun will subsequently destabilize the
region...allowing a line of thunderstorms to form along the front
which will cross the area late today. The thunderstorms will form
around mid afternoon as temperatures rise to near 80 in interior
New Hampshire and the CT river valley. CAPE values of up to 1000
J/kg combined with an 80kt jet streak overhead will generate
sufficient shear for a few severe thunderstorms to develop with
damaging winds and small hail being the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Overnight skies will clear and showers and thunderstorms will die
off as the front moves out of the area. Residual moisture will
allow patchy fog to form...especially in favored valley locations.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny with just a slight chance of upslope
showers in the afternoon in the mountains along the Canadian
border. Light northwesterly flow in the wake of the front will be
enough to keep the sea breeze at bay allowing temperatures to
climb into the 80s for all but the immediate coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather will continue into the midweek as high pressure
gradually builds in behind the departing front. Weak northerly
flow will veer to the east by Wednesday afternoon bringing in a
sea breeze. Temperatures should reach the 70s however with inland
areas a few degrees warmer than the coast.

Onshore flow strengthens Thursday with perhaps some drizzle...
stratus... and fog allowing readings to only reach the 60s for
much of the area. The remnants of the very weak TD Bonnie will
move off the Carolinas Thursday night allowing a baroclinic zone
to shift towards the eastern seaboard. This will introduce some
heavier showers for Friday into the weekend with highs once again
in the 60s and 70s. During this time overnight lows will be in the
40s and 50s...or in a word...normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions will improve to VFR across the area by
18Z. This afternoon scattered thunderstorms and showers may impact
HIE LEB CON and MHT. Tonight expect valley fog for LEB and to a
lesser extent HIE CON. All areas will be VFR for Tuesday.

Long Term...VFR for Wednesday. Some MVFR along the coast Thursday
in drizzle...stratus...and fog. -SHRA Thursday evening into Friday
for all terminals bringing ceilings and visibilities down to MVFR
and/or IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term... Fog may lift somewhat mid afternoon before
returning overnight. Winds and seas will remain below small craft.

Long Term...Generally poor boating conditions from Thursday
through the weekend in fog and drizzle as well as showers. Winds
and seas will remain below small craft criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will remain light through the next few days with cooler
temperatures and precipitation in the forecast the next two days.
This will help keep fire danger in check.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Hanes



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