Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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111
FXUS61 KGYX 132103
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
403 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SNOW TO MIDCOAST MAINE.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND CREST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH THE
WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND THEN CREST
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA...ITS GETTING A
LITTLE HUNG UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INVERTED TROUGH NEAR
PENOBSCOT BAY. ANY SHSN SHOULD BE DONE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED STILL THINK THE
TROUGH MAY FLARE A BIT AFTER THIS INTERACTION...BUT STILL THINK IT
WILL REMAIN INTACT...AND COULD FLARE UP A LITTLE THRU EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE BULK OF THE NOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. DID DROP THE ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN COUNTY AS THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE STOPPED THE SHIFT WWD OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SO...ANY ADDL ACCUMS IN ERN LINCOLN CTY WILL BE LIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN IN KNOX AND WALDO COUNTIES...AND
SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY BEFORE.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THE CAA HAS BEGUN IN FULL FORCE WITH
NRN AND FAR WRN ZONES ALREADY APPROACHING ZERO AS TEMPS FALL AND
WE EXPERIENCE A VERY COLD NIGHT. ALL WIND CHILL PRODUCTS REMAIN AS
IS WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -40 IN THE N AND REACHING -25
ALONG THE COAST. AIR TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT -15 IN THE N TO
ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN THE SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW UPSLOPE SHSN
OF FLURRIES IN THE MTNS....BUT THEY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS
THE VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A BITTER COLD MORNING...WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB A LITTLE...BUT
WITH VERY COLD AIR OVERHEAD AND SFC CAA CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST
PART OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED RANGING FROM NEAR 10
ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...TO ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN THE NORTH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DESPITE ALL THIS COLD IT WILL BE SUNNY.
SHOULD GET OF ADV LEVEL WIND CHILLS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EVENTUALLY, THE FOOTHILLS BY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONVERT THE WIND CHILL WARNING
IN THE N TO ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN LATE SUN AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND SUN
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO
ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY LOW
TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE RAD COOLING COULD
BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO -30 IN A FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LOWS
MON MORNING SIMILAR TO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITHOUT THE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEK...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY ALLOWING A RETURN
WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BY MON NIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WAA
BAROLCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND INCREASES FORCING. BY LATE
MON NIGHT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH
SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION BY TUE MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THE PRECIPITATION TUE MORNING WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO A MIX AND THEN RAIN WHILE FURTHER NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY OCCUR BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER
OCCURS. FOR ACCUMULATIONS USED SNOW RATIOS BASED ON TEMPS ON A
CROSS SECTION.  CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF INITIAL QPF AND ARCTIC AIR
IN PLACE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
PLOWABLE SNOW EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY
STRONG SURGE OF WAA BUT CONSIDERING DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ARCTIC
AIR MASS HAD TO LOWER TEMPS SOME TUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
IN LOW LEVELS COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT TUE MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS SO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE
AFTERNOON TEMPS FINALLY SURGE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CHANGES
PTYPE TO ALL RAIN. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS BY TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A RETURN TO COLDER
TEMPS WED OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING TROF. THIS MAY POSE A MINOR
PROBLEM FOR THU WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECTING ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM. SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR FRI BUT A CANADIAN
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS BY LATE FRI SPREADING A PERIOD
OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BY SAT.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND OUTPUT WITH EXCEPTIONS MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY NW WINDS...AS HIGH AS 25KT OR SO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. KRKD
WILL SEE OCNL IFR IN SNOW THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
SETTLE AT VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE....EXPECT VFR THRU SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THRU MON. COULD SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR
LOWER IN SN/FZRA/RA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME
GUSTY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES AND VERY COLD AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH SOME ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN SUN MORNING...BUT
WILL LKLY SEE SCA WINDS INTO SUN EVENING. WHILE FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE DURING SUNDAY...WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.


LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT. GALE FORCE
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUE. TUE NIGHT WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WED BUT BELOW SCA CRITERIA. BY THU NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND REACH SCA CRITERIA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MEZ023>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NHZ004>013-015.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NHZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
     EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/MARINE



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