Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 020705
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREA RADAR COMPOSITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND EXTENSIVE AREA
OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD FALLING OUT OF A
MID LEVEL DECK BUT VERY LITTLE SHOWING UP IN SURFACE OBS IN THAT
AREA. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THIS
PRECIP OFFSHORE TODAY AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. EXPECT BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY IN COASTAL ZONES
WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SUN AND HIGHEST TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR
80S. CLOUDIER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS
AND SOME OCEAN STRATUS MAY FLIRT WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE 1ST HALF OF THE NIGHT....OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES E ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NGT
INTO MONDAY. AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FNT JUST
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHC OF
SHRA/TSTMS. THE SFC LOW AND FNT MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LEFT IN PLACE COULD
GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS. AN UPPER LVL TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
BRINGS A SFC COLD FNT TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY THEN THE FNT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSTMS
FOR THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE INTENSIFYING
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE GETS CLOSER. ON THURSDAY THE FNT PUSHES OFFSHORE
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA/TSTMS. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ALLOWING A LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE W. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A
DRY WARM DAY ON FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY THIS MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG. VFR TODAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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