Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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855
FXUS61 KGYX 281938
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/LEGRO



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