Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 272030
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST
MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF SHORE ON SUNDAY. A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH. FIGURING PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT IS CHALLENGING AS A FEW SPOTS MAY HOLD ON TO THE COLD AIR
AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS COULD BRING A VERY LIGHT
COATING OF ICE WITH FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND IF
IT DOES IT MAY BE IN ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR
IS TRAPPED...SO HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES
FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY ABOUT NOON TOMORROW AND CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NW TO SE. FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NW
AND THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HOWEVER DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MUCH COOLER EXTENDED IS ON TAP...VERSUS THE WX WE HAVE BEEN
HAVING FOR MUCH OF DEC. COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SWD
INTO THE CONUS...AND THOUGH THE CENTER WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
W...A BRANCHING AXIS WILL DROP THRU NEW ENGLAND LATE MON INTO TUE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THE COLDEST MORNING TEMPS SINCE THE FIRST
WEEK OF DEC.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK IS RELATIVELY QUIET. NO LARGE SCALE
CHANGES ARE NOTED IN THE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. 27/12Z
GEFS...CMC ENSEMBLES...AND ECMWF EPS ALL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS INTO AK THRU THE EXTENDED. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CANADA PLENTY COLD...AND KEEP IT NEARBY NRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMP
FORECAST REMAINS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED. LOW
HEIGHTS ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE SWRN CONUS...PLUS THE SERN CONUS
RIDGING WILL KEEP FAST FLOW ALOFT...AND FAST MOVING S/WV TROFS
CROSSING THE AREA. EXPECT THAT THE MTNS WILL SEE SOME SHSN
ACTIVITY FROM THESE FEATURES...WITH A POSSIBLY STRONGER SIGNAL FOR
SHSN THU WITH REINFORCING COLD FNT.

MAIN S/WV TROF LOOKS TO EJECT FROM THE SWRN CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF
HAS DELAYED THIS EJECTION SOME 18 TO 24 HOURS THAN THE GFS.
KNOWING THE ECMWF BIAS FOR HOLDING ENERGY TOO LONG IN THE
SOUTHWEST...A BLEND TOWARDS THE QUICKER GFS AND CMC SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST...FAST
FLOW...AND LITTLE BLOCKING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON STRENGTH...TRACK...AND TIMING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SIGNAL IS STRONG FOR PCPN AROUND THIS TIME
THOUGH...SO HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POP IS MAINTAINED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING ONWARD.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED.
LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NRN MTNS...WHERE SCT MVFR OR LOWER
IS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR MOST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU
MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS THU WITH
PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
SHORT TERM...KISTNER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KISTNER/LEGRO
MARINE...KISTNER/LEGRO


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