Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 030134
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY DID LEAD TO CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...BUT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ON THE BIG ISLAND RECEIVED A LITTLE MORE
RAINFALL...BUT TOTALS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LAND AND SEA BREEZES. AGAIN EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OF THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL START TO BE FELT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...BUT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA
BREEZES WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS AGREE WITH A TRADE
WIND BACKGROUND FLOW...SO MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS IN THIS FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONCENTRATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND FLOW AREAS...BUT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS. THE NEW WORK WEEK SHOULD SEE THE BACKGROUND TRADE
WIND FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LAND...WITH
MODERATE TRADES BY WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND THUS BRINGING THE LIGHT WINDS. AS THE
FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...
ALLOWING THE LIGHT TRADES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WE/LL SEE THE TRADES
RETURN WITH THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING THE TRADES TO THE ISLANDS...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN MODERATE TRADES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER SMALLER ISLANDS INTO
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SITS NEAR KAUAI AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD MAUI. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS
THE LAND BREEZE TAKES HOLD. ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI WILL HELP KEEP WINDWARD AREAS ON THESE ISLANDS CLOUDIER.
OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT ARRIVED TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL
NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EATON




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