Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 261335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
335 AM HST MON SEP 26 2016

Breezy trade winds will persist into next weekend, supported by a
high pressure system passing well north of the islands. The trade
winds will deliver an area of moisture today that will fuel an
increase in windward showers, with a few showers spreading to
leeward portions of the smaller islands. After this moisture
diminishes, a typical trade wind weather pattern is expected from
tonight through Friday, with clouds and brief showers favoring
windward slopes, mainly during nights and mornings. A more
significant increase in showers is possible next weekend.


Although morning soundings indicate that the island atmosphere is
quite stable, with a strong low-level subsidence inversion based
around 7 kft, the trade winds are expected to be fairly showery
today as an area of low-level moisture moves over the islands from
the E. Brisk trade winds will help to spread a few of the incoming
showers to leeward areas today. After this moisture moves W of the
islands by tonight, a fairly typical trade wind weather pattern is
expected through the week, with moderate to breezy trade winds
delivering passing clouds and showers that will be most active
during nights and mornings.

A front lying between the islands and the trade-wind-supporting high
is gradually dissipating, allowing the high to tighten the pressure
gradient over the area. As this high tracks E over the next several
days, it will continue to support locally breezy trade winds. By
next weekend the flow may veer to the ESE as the high moves to a
position far NE of the islands. This flow my bring an increase in
showers, as moisture associated with a developing disturbance about
1200 miles ESE of the Big Island moves closer to the islands, and a
weak low aloft develops to the NW.


Trade winds will continue to bring low clouds with embedded showers
to the islands at times today. Much of the low clouds and showers
will affect mainly windward and mountain areas, providing MVFR
ceilings at times. Winds will be just strong enough to carry some
low clouds and showers to the lee areas of the smaller islands,
spreading brief MVFR ceilings to those areas as well. Otherwise
mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

Rather robust trade winds will persist through at least the next
couple of days. Expect AIRMET TANGO for low level mechanical
turbulence immediately over and downwind of the mountains to remain


A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically
windy marine zones around the Big Island and Maui through Wednesday,
and will likely need to be extended through the week.

Surf will be small, especially by Hawaii standards, through most of
the next week. A series of mainly small pulses of southern
hemisphere swell will continue to bring small surf to S facing
shores. A pair of small, short-period NW and N swells will continue
into Tuesday, but resulting surf along N and W facing shores will be
small. Fresh to strong trade winds will drive moderate short-period
surf along E facing shores for most of this week, with a chance that
surf approaches advisory levels along E facing shores next weekend.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.



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