Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 021153
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
653 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS COVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LIMITED VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES. CIGS BECOME VFR CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW SHRA PASSING BY SO WILL KEEP
VCSH IN MOST TAFS THROUGH 15Z.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT. BASIC TIMING...KCLL/KUTS AROUND 00Z-03Z WITH
KCXO AT 01Z-04Z. EXPECT LINE TO REACH KIAH/KHOU/KSGR AROUND 03Z-
06Z BUT LINE OF STORMS COULD BE WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
LARGELY DEPENDS ON INSTABILITY AND ANY CAPPING TO OVERCOME. STORMS
SHOULD THEN REACH THE COAST AROUND 05-09Z FOR KLBX/KGLS. TIMING
BASED ON COMBINATION OF HI-RES WRF SOLUTIONS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL PUSH THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SE TX AROUND MIDNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY
AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN CONCERNS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE NAMBUFR AND GFSBUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE PERSISTING OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE LINE OF
STORMS INTACT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX. HOWEVER...THE NAM12
IS SUGGESTING THAT THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BY
UNDER 1 INCH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
INDICATES ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE RIGHT-FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL AID IN A RETURN TO SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN BY AROUND TUESDAY.

40

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY NOON FRIDAY.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD. CAUTION OR EVEN ADVISORY
FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  64  83  53  80 /  20  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  71  84  56  81 /  30  60  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  77  86  66  79 /  30  60  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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