Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 242013
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
313 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to push in from the west,
out ahead of the associated cold front. Still monitoring radar
for severe weather such as gusty winds, hail, and isolated
tornadoes. More details can be found in the most recent AFD, which
was specifically a mesoscale/severe weather based discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Drier conditions can be anticipated for much of Sunday morning
and into the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be in the mid
80s, and the low temperatures should dip into the mid to upper
60s. Overnight Sunday and into Monday morning, another upper level
low swings across the rolling plains and into northern Texas. Out
ahead of this system, the pressure gradient tightens resulting in
an increase in wind speed and instability Monday afternoon. this
should help to provide ascent, to sustain some showers out ahead
of the boundary. Larger values of vorticity will be advected into
the northern half of the forecast area along with this system.
Showers will begin to push into the northwestern counties of
southeast Texas early Monday afternoon and spread across the
northern counties into the early evening hours. This disturbance
should push off to the northeast by Monday evening. Partly cloudy
skies will prevail along with drier conditions early Tuesday
morning through Wednesday morning.

Another upper level disturbance treks across Texas Wednesday
bringing with it another frontal boundary, before eventually sliding
off to the northeast by Wednesday evening. Model guidance such as
the ECMWF and GFS, in the most recent run, are for the most part
in agreement regarding the timing of the front. Around 18Z on
Wednesday afternoon, the frontal passage will push into the
western counties of southeast Texas and should move out of the
eastern counties by 06Z Thursday. Based off the latest model
trends, this system will likely bring better chances for showers
and thunderstorms than the system that is expected to move through
southeast Texas this upcoming Monday. What the models are not
agreeing on, are the potential rainfall totals associated with
this system. The 12Z run of the GFS is indicating higher
precipitation totals than the 12Z run of the ECMWF. Regardless,
forecast soundings show moisture in surplus with precipitable
water values ranging between 1.60 to 1.8 inches, so the occasional
heavier downpour will be possible. The chance of precipitation
should linger through late Wednesday evening.

Dewpoints will fall back into the mid 50s to 60s early Thursday
morning. Partly cloudy skies will begin to thin out Thursday, and
clear skies will prevail Friday and into the beginning of next
weekend. High temperatures will be in the low 80s Thursday and
Friday. Not expecting to see precipitation return to the forecast
until Saturday afternoon as another low pressure system begins to
push in from the west.

Hathaway

&&

.MARINE...
Strong onshore winds ad elevated seas persisting this afternoon out
ahead of the system currently moving into the NW portions of SE TX.
Did not make any significant changes with the previous forecast and
have kept the SCEC/SCA configuration in place for the short-term. A
slightly more relaxed gradient is expected just before the dry line
moves into the region, but seas may be slower to respond. And so no
change with the expiration times of the Advisory. Winds shifting to
the W/NW remains possible tomorrow morning for mainly the bays/near
shore waters...but onshore winds should return areawide by tomorrow
night. As the next storm system moves into the Central Plains...the
tightening pressure gradient will help to increase wind speeds once
again Sun afternoon. SCEC (at the very least) may be needed through
Sun night. Decreased winds/seas by Mon with the presence of a weak/
stalled frontal boundary over SE TX, with a return of strengthening
winds once again Tues afternoon on through late Weds as yet another
storm system moves in from the west. 41



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  58  78  58  84 /  80  50  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              80  65  83  61  85 /  50  70  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  71  79  70  79 /  20  50  40  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...
     Fort Bend...Jackson...Matagorda...Waller...Washington...
     Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...41



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