Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 030443
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN UPDATE FROM 00Z PACKAGE.
VFR CIGS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. MAY STILL GET SOME
IFR/MVFR CIGS OR VSBY FOR KUTS/KCXO/KCLL. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
MVFR CIGS FOR ANY OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS.

CONVECTION TOMORROW STILL IN DOUBT. PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND
1.6-1.7 MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NOT
ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE BUT MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH OF A TROUGH
AXIS TOMORROW FROM A SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT COULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION. LOW CONFIDENCE SO NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR HI RES MODELS FOR ANY UPDATES.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE ONCE AGAIN. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIRMASS HAS INHIBITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW. MAY BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR AN ISO
STORM OR TWO BUT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KCLL/KUTS/KCXO IN
THE MORNING. ALL 3 TERMINALS HAD SOME TYPE OF RESTRICTED VSBY OR
CIG WHICH COULD HAPPEN AGAIN. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KIAH
BUT NOT THAT MUCH SOUTHWARD. MAY NEED TO WACH KSGR AND KLBX FOR
SOME FOG BUT MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH WIND.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STARTING TO SEE SOME ISO SHRA/TSRA POP UP JUST TO WEST OF THE CWA
THIS AFTN SO HAVE ADDED A BRIEF MENTION FOR THOSE COUNTIES IN THE
FIRST PERIOD OF THE FCST. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT ELSE GOING ON TODAY
AS THE RIDGE HELD THE SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DOWN (AS PREVIOUSLY ADV-
ERTISED). MODELS INDICATING A WEAKENING OF THIS HIGH FOR TOMORROW
(ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVITY. PWATS PROGGED TO SPIKE NEAR 2" FOR
SAT SO THE CHC POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. SLIGHTLY LOW-
ER PWAT FOR SUN ALSO IN LINE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. MID TO EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND
ITS TRANSITION TO A WEAK FLAT RIDGE OVER THE REGION FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NW
AOA THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MIGHT BE THE LAST BEST SHOT OF PCPN BEFORE
THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO SETTLE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND SHUTS THINGS DOWN. 41

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHERN GULF CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
LIGHT...TO AT TIMES MORE MODERATE...ONSHORE WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE
TO 4 TO NEAR 6 FEET OFFSHORE...TYPICALLY A 6 TO 8 SECOND WAVE
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY CHOPPY BAY WATERS. WEAK WAVES ORIGINATING FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF MAY INITIATE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN THAT
WILL TRAVEL UP WITHIN NORTHERN STEERING FLOW AND IMPACT THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS. MARINERS NEED TO BE AWARE AND BE ABLE TO REACH SAFE
HARBOR DUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN OR NEAR ANY
PASSING STORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  75  91  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  77  92  77 /  10  20  10  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  81  89  81 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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