Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 262346
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCH OF MVFR STRATO CU IS MOVING SE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRATO CU TO FORM THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS THEN PERSISTING TONIGHT AND INTO MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING. N/NE WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE (HIGHER
ALONG THE COAST) TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER
TODAY. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS IS INDICATED BY THE GFS 5-WAVE 500 MB
FORECAST SHOWING INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS SE TEXAS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
HOWEVER...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS AND LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHILLY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS SE TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE CLEARING
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WILL HELP DETERMINE THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL AID IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S.

REGARDING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BOTH DAYS. SUNDAY MAY SEE A WARM FRONT MOVE WELL INLAND
PER THE ECMWF OR INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PER THE NAM12. BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER MORE ON A COLD FRONTAL DROPPING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BOTH PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE ON
WEDNESDAY.

40

MARINE...
STILL ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLAG CONFIGURATION (CAUTION
NEARSHORE & ADVSY OFFSHORE). WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST FRI AND SAT AND INCREASE IN SPEED. BUILDING SEAS & SURF,
HIGHER TIDE LEVELS AND HEIGHTENED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
RESULT THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY OR HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. PREVIOUS FCST FAVORED SUNDAY AND
WILL MAINTAIN THAT FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO TWEAK THIS. NEXT FRONT PENCILED IN FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 47
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      31  45  34  52  49 /  10  10  20  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  51  36  57  51 /  10  10  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            40  51  44  56  53 /  10  20  20  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...33



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