Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KUTS AND KCLL AT 17Z.
THE LATEST NAM12 QPF INDICATES ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD...MAINLY FROM KHOU
SOUTHWARD. AN ARGUMENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MADE.
HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT 18Z /AROUND 1000/ AND
FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. FELT IT BEST TO JUST GO WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR NOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG
AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD ON TUESDAY.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING
PACKAGE.  47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR CRS-JSO LINE BUT THE DRY AIR IS
SLOWER TO ARRIVE BUT SHOULD ACCELERATE AS THE MIXING GETS GOING
TODAY. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MARCH SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE. 87 DEGREES LOOKS LIKE THE
NEEDED TEMPERATURE AND SO HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHWEST OF THE
CORRIDOR IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
PROFILE DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY THREATENING...CAPE 500-1200...LI
-1 TO -2...BACKING WIND PROFILE...AND DRY ABOVE 850. GUSTY WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 9 PM THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OVER THE GULF AND
PRESSING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY MID LEVELS SAGS SOUTH
AND SHOULD KEEP SETX DRY FOR THE WEEK. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION STRETCHING DOWN INTO TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
MOISTURE CREEPING BACK NORTH THU-SUN BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS HERE OR THERE FOR THE
SHRA/TSRA TO REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A GREAT TASTE OF FALL. FALL
OFFICIALLY BEGINS THIS EVENING AT 929 PM. 45

MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE RELAXED GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS LIGHT FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE NE/ELY WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THIS PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS WHICH MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR LOW-LYING LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST. OF NOTE COULD BE THE NEW MOON ON THE 24TH WHERE THE
ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICT- ED HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 2 TO
2.5 FEET. 41

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES SAVE FOR THE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING FOR
SOME OF OUR USUAL LOCATIONS (CXO/LBX/SGR). OTHERWISE VFR WITH
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF FROPA. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  65  87  62  89 /  20   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  67  88  63  88 /  30  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  74  86  74  86 /  20  30   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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