Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 061748
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. A SLOWLY VEERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE WITH EITHER SKC OR
SCT CI. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUD COVER...OVER THE WEEKEND. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS. SFC WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE CWA.
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AT 850 MB AND SUGGEST
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BUT CURRENT OBS ARE WARMING
QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...FEEL
WARMER MAX TEMPS ARE THE WAY TO GO. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL BE COMPENSATED BY
A WEAK RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. ALL IN ALL...PREV FCST HAS
THINGS COVERED WELL AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS WERE
REQUIRED TO MATCH CURRENT OBS. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT FEW-SCT PASSING CIRRUS AROUND FL250.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS SETX TODAY.
CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WITH LIGHT
AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SETX. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THOUGH LIGHT SO THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO PULL BACK IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING
WILL TRAVERSE THE SETX SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASING AS HEIGHTS FALL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. HIGH CLOUDS
DEPARTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH A MIX OF CU/SC SUNDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND OVERALL WARM
AND PLEASANT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY BUT GREATER CHANCES
WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS THE NORTH AT 40-70 PERCENT (SOUTH MAY BE
CAPPED AND MUCH LOWER CHANCE) AS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING - SURFACE WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AND MAY GET BREEZY. LONG AND STRONG FETCH COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT TIDE LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM
NOSE OF 850 AIR EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS SO WE
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP NEAR THE 90 MARK ON TUESDAY...POPS
LOW IN THE WEST AND HIGHER IN THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IS
A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND COULD (IF CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG) BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAINFALL.

45

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY... WITH CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS POSSIBLY NEEDED AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
ALSO RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS /APPROACHING 6 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE/
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS CONTINUING INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  86  64  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  85  66  84  70 /   0   0   0  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  81  72  80  74 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31


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