Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE ALONG A COLUMBUS-TRINITY LINE BY
NOON...THEN OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A
NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHRA & POSSIBLY AN
EMBEDDED TSRA TWO ARE EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU. THOUGH
A FEW CELLS COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS...OVERALL
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED.

UPPER TROF LAGS BEHIND SFC FRONT AND MESSY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-LIVINGSTON LINE WILL
SEE THE HIGHER CHANCES AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED
2" AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NOT
NECESSARILY FROM HEAVY RAIN - BUT MORE LIKELY FROM STEADY LIGHT
TO OCCASIONAL AMOUNTS THAT ADD UP.

MONDAY & TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY & COOL WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD
BEGIN FILTERING INTO SE TX ON TUE WITH CONTINUED CAA ON WED/THU.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS WHICH
TYPICALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THESE COLD AIRMASSES.

PRECIP CHANCES RE-ENTER THE PICTURE ON NEW YEARS DAY AS SFC HIGH
PRES BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AND
DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW BECOME A FACTOR. ALTHOUGH THERE`S
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS REGARDING TIMING AS TO WHEN
WESTERN TROF KICKS OUT (AND ITS EVENTUAL DEPTH)...FRI & SAT ALSO
LOOK WET WITH A COASTAL TROF SETTING UP ALONG WITH INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT. NEXT FRONT, PACIFIC IN NATURE, IS PENCILED IN
FOR SAT AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING PRECIP TO AN END. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS HAVE DECREASED SOME SO FAR THIS MORNING AND HAVE LET THE
SCEC EXPIRE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. MODERATE/OCCASION-
ALLY STRONG NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. SCEC/SCA FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AOA SUN AFTN BEFORE SLOW-
LY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST MON. THIS NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED
TO STRENGTHEN TUES/WEDS AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS
TO DEEPEN OUT WEST. SCEC/SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY FCST AS LOW CIGS (GENERALLY MORE IFR FOR THE NRN HALF TO MVFR
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA) PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORN.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS KEEP SCATTERED PCPN IN THE FCST TODAY/TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. POST-FRONTAL PCPN WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE AREA. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  41  50  35  60 /  60  30  30   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  46  49  37  61 /  70  60  70   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  49  50  45  58 /  70  70  80  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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