Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 311810
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
Did not make a lot of changes with the 18Z TAFS...especially for
the near term. While there are questions concerning moisture av-
ailability (see 12Z LCH/CRP soundings), feeling more comfortable
with keeping the mention of VCTS for most sites for the remaind-
er of this aftn. Continued development to our west combined with
daytime heating and the seabreeze are all factors we are keeping
an eye on. For tonight, will also keep with lower CIGS vs. lower
VIS given the slowly deepening/strengthening onshore winds. Will
also keep with a VCTS for tomorrow afternoon. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / 1050 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Morning surface analysis has a cold front pushing through
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. This front should slide into north
Texas and stall just south of the Red River tomorrow. Higher
moisture axis exists to the west with 12Z CRP sounding showing 2
inches of precipitable water and 12Z LCH sounding showing 1.2
inches. Any thunderstorm activity today should develop west of
Houston within the higher moisture axis. Storms may move into the
region later today. Earlier WRF runs and the Tx Tech WRF were
suggesting this possibility. Overall think the forecast is on
track and will continue to monitor hi-res model runs for any
changes. Main concern will still be for the end of the week with
the heavy rainfall potential. If forecast trends continue we may
need to issue a flash flood watch for the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      87  71  84  70  82 /  30  30  60  70  70
Houston (IAH)              87  71  86  71  84 /  20  10  50  50  70
Galveston (GLS)            84  76  84  75  84 /  10  10  30  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...41


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