Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 251022
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
322 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016
Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will be
possible over mainly the Eastern portion of Interior Central
California. Isolated showers will continue over the Sierra Nevada
for several more days. A gradual warming trend is forecast into
early next week.
Good initialization of the 00Z deterministic runs of the GFS and
the ECM with closed low center over Pt. Conception. Guidance is
forecasting the track of the low center to cross the SoCal region
during the day today. We will see wrap around moisture impacting
the Southern Sierra today with showers and thunderstorms. SPC has
this area highlighted in the Day 1 convective outlook.
The low will quickly track into AZ by 12Z Thursday with continued
unsettled conditions in the Sierra Nevada. Guidance is still
indicating unstable conditions in the afternoon and the evening in
northerly flow as weak shortwave energy drops through the NW flow.
EPAC ridge strengthens by Friday as we will see temps passing
normal to just above. Guidance is advertising a weak trough
moving through the Sierra on Friday afternoon. However, moisture
is limited. We did keep a slight chance of thunderstorms in for
Friday afternoon along the crest.
The trough starts to dig in over the Sierra Saturday and Sunday with
continued unsettled conditions across the Sierra. We are keeping
in slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as
the trough sits over the area through Sunday evening.
The ridge finally wins out and moves into the region early next
week with temps climbing to around 10 to 15 degrees above normal
for Monday and Tuesday.
Areas of MVFR for ceilings in the San Joaquin Valley and Southern
Sierra foothills in showers and isolated thunderstorms after 18z
Wednesday. Widespread MVFR and areas of mountain obscuring IFR
across the Southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains in showers
and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in the
central CA interior for the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is Medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is Medium.
Certainty levels include Low...Medium...and High. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.