Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 202229
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
229 PM PST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge will bring a dry period top the area tonight and
Sunday then a weak system will bring a chance of light
precipitation to areas from Fresno County north on Sunday night
and Monday. A stronger system will bring chances of precipitation
to the area on Wednesday Night and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest satellite shows some cumulus cloud cover over
the San Joaquin Valley; this is expected to dissipate by around
sunset. There are also some low clouds remaining over the
southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains; however, the
clouds are gradually eroding. We canceled the Winter Weather
Advisory, as precipitation had mainly ended. One concern in the
short term will be locally gusty winds in the Kern County desert
areas through early this evening; a few locations around Mojave
have reported gusts around 50 to 55 mph during the afternoon so
far. High resolution guidance shows this activity diminishing
after sunset as well. Otherwise, a chilly night is in store
tonight due to clearing and cold air remains behind the upper-
level trough. Some rural San Joaquin Valley locations will likely
reach around freezing to a few degrees below. Fog formation is
expected to be inhibited as a cool northerly flow aloft will
continue overnight, although some haze is possible by Sunday
morning.

The next low pressure system that brings us our next chance of
precipitation during Sunday night into Monday is currently off
the coast of northern CA, and a few high clouds ahead of this
system are moving inland over the Central California coastal
areas. This system will likely bring most of the precipitation
over northern California, so we are not expecting significant
precipitation in our area. Chances for precipitation in Central
California remain from Fresno County and northward, with the best
chances towards Yosemite. Any snow is expected to remain above
5,000 feet, and mainly light amounts, or around an inch or two,
are expected. At least the good news is there will not be a return
to strong high pressure just yet.

Another potentially wetter system is expected to arrive by
Wednesday night/Thursday. This could bring decent mountain snow
and rainfall to the lower elevations. At this time, this appears
to be a more typical cooler, winter-type system that originates
from the Gulf of Alaska. Models are in decent agreement with this
feature during this time frame.

By next weekend, or the last weekend of January, high pressure is
progged to build over much of the Western U.S., with a generally
dry pattern returning. However, nighttime and morning fog may
once again become a possibility in the San Joaquin Valley by that
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions over the southern Sierra
Nevada, adjacent foothills, and the Tehachapi Mountains thru 03Z
Sunday. Areas of MVFR visibilities in mist developing in the San
Joaquin Valley after 03Z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central California interior for the next 24
hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

public...BSO
avn/fw...JDB
synopsis...BSO

weather.gov/hanford



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