Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 181229
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
429 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT TODAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRUSHES BY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT REMNANT SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD.
GENERALLY DRY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT
LIKELY TO BE SOME CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES.
THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAKE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST A TAD ABOVE CLIMO TODAY BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY
MORNING...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FT AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AFTER
SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY OVER MOST AREAS DURING THE PERIOD. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WHERE THE FOG AND
CLOUDS BREAK UP EACH DAY.

MODELS AGREE ON BEGINNING TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY AROUND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS UNTIL 09Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AREAS OF IFR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897

KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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