Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 150020
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
520 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AHEAD OF HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EVEN AS HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN DIEGO TO OAKLAND SHOW AT LEAST ONE INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. AT THIS POINT...ONE AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIP-WATER IS BECOMING VERY MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA...CLIMO-
WISE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS THE
AREA AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION UNDER A MORE
SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

WHILE MOISTURE MOVES IN...THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEST WITH THE HEAT CONTINUING. MODELS SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING THE RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...MODELS STILL TRYING TO FORM A DEEP TROUGH OFF OF THE
WEST COAST AS ODILE SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW ODILE TRYING TO APPROACH THE SAN
DIEGO AREA TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING...THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MAY BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS NEAR THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. MODEL DO PLACE THIS
TIME FRAME AS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OVER THE REGION.

THE LATER PERIOD SHOW GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBLE
SOLUTION. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION AND ALLOW A LOW
TO RESIDE OVER THE WEST COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...WILL CONFINE THE PRECIP TO THE MTNS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER 15 2014...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-14      106:2012     70:1910     72:1937     47:1903
KFAT 09-15      104:1983     74:1982     72:1938     45:1970
KFAT 09-16      105:1937     70:1908     73:1934     49:1955

KBFL 09-14      105:1989     74:2009     79:1971     45:1915
KBFL 09-15      106:1979     75:1959     77:1979     40:1915
KBFL 09-16      109:1929     74:1959     77:1971     42:1915

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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