Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 251100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REMAINS AS THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2:30 AM PST...MAIN
REPORTING LOCATIONS WERE OBSERVING VISIBILITY VALUES OF UNDER 1000
FEET. AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REX BLOCK
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN...FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE VALLEY. YET...OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY FLOOR AND THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS...SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
CURRENTLY...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH NOON THIS SUNDAY.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW UNDER THE HIGH THAT FORMED THE REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A TROUGH...CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH
OF HAWAII...AND SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES. MODEL PROG BETWEEN 0.50 TO 0.80 OF AN
INCH OF WATER MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. BASED
ON UPPER AIR OB CLIMO...KEDW/S VALUE OF NEAR 0.80 OF AN INCH WILL
PLACE IT AT PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. THEREFORE... A
GOOD POTENTIAL EXIST OF HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP FALL OVER KERN
COUNTY ON MONDAY.

MODEL PRECIP TIMING AS THE RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
BAKERSFIELD NEAR MIDDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW MOJAVE RECEIVING PRECIP
MONDAY MORNING AND BAKERSFIELD BEFORE NOON. WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS
DO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT MOJAVE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECT AND LIGHTER
FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YET...FRESNO COULD ALSO SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE IS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARMER AIR
HOLD MORE WATER.

MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE
PRECIP TERMINATES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE LATE WEEK STORM. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT SHOW VERY HIGH PROB OF PRECIP VALUES WITH THE SECOND
STORM AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...AFTER THE
FIRST STORM...THE FOG THREAT WILL INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECOND STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 20Z TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015...FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...
MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS
AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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