Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 232115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS PROVIDING DRY AND GENERALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE SHUNTED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PAC
NORTHWEST. 24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS HERE ARE MOSTLY RUNNING UP
AROUND 2-6 DEGREES EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS IT
IS PROGGED TO SWING ONSHORE SATURDAY AND PUSH EAST OF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPS BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO...DETERMINISTIC
MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TO MOSTLY ANOTHER
MISS FOR OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY AND IN THE YOSEMITE
VICINITY SATURDAY. AS WITH THE RECENT PASSING SYSTEM...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SLOPES SATURDAY EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES BY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING TROUGH.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE
BUT GENERALLY SHOW THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO BY MIDWEEK.


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971

KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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