Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NE/NC
GOMEX TO WEAKEN AND START MOVING ASHORE IN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL THUS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
AND BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE MID LEVELS. LOW LEVEL WILL LAG
BEHIND BUT SHOULD STILL KICK IN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME RAIN
CHANCES WILL THUS RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM SOME MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF CHS CWA APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO LIGHT FORCING
AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON A
STRENGTHENING OF THE LIFT AND LESSENING OF THE DEWPOINT WILL FAVOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...KEY WEATHER CAPTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
REMAINS EARLY SUNDAY ARRIVAL...FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENCE...OF DEEP
COLUMN MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR PRESENTATIONS SHOW WELL THE UPPER
LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PUMPING VAPOR RICH AIR INTO
THE SE STATES. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL HOLD BOTH DAYS ALLOWING
THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SWAMPY...WHILE OPENING A
WINDOW OF MIGRATION OF MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES NNE INTO
THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM AFTERNOON
CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD HELP SPUR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO THE ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT AND CLOUDS...MAXIMUMS
WILL RUN NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE...WHILE MINIMUMS DROP NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SINCE NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
WEAKENED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED STILL LOOKS LIKELY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO
THE AREA.

RECENTLY DEGENERATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA WILL MEANDER
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...A
DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL STREAM UP INTO THE
CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. OBVIOUS
PWAT PLUME WILL ADVECT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THEN MAINTAIN OR
REASSERT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES SPUN OFF FROM THE RESIDUAL VORTICITY OF ERIKA WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...AIDING LIFT EVEN THOUGH JET LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL.
HARD TO FIND ANY SPECIFIC SURFACE FORCING MECHANISMS...ALTHOUGH A
RESULTANT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTN...AND
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN EACH DAY TUE...WED...THU...AND FRI...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY MAY BE
THE LEAST ACTIVE OF THE STRETCH. WPC HAS 1-3 INCHES OF QPF DURING
THIS TIME...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED MOSTLY
ACROSS SC WHICH MAY GET INTO THE HIGHEST PWAT AIR. BY SATURDAY A
SURGE OF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING A REPRIEVE TO
THE ACTIVE WEATHER.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
RAIN. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE CIRRUS LEVEL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL SHOW LOWERING
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CAP THE FALL TO MVFR THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS DO
FALL TO IFR AT MYR, CRE, AND EVEN ILM. AT TIME FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE
BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE. WILL ALSO CARRY VCSH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ALONG SC COAST BUT THE RAIN ITSELF NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER
ANY FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED THE SCEC A BIT EARLY AS SEAS HAVE
DECREASED TO 3 FT AT NEAR SHORE BUOY 41110 AND 4.5 FT ALL THE WAY
OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY 41035. CONDITIONS ARE STILL QUITE
CHOPPY WITH EVEN THE LATTER BUOY SHOWING A WAVE POWER PEAK AT JUST
5 SECONDS. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND THE LOCAL GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS WILL DO THE
SAME.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...A VEERING WIND DIRECTION PROFILE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS
A RETURN FLOW. THE FETCH LENGTH OF WINDS ONSHORE IS A LONG AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE TO THE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS.
SEAS EAST 3-4 FEET RUNNING EVERY 9-10 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED LIGHT
TO MODERATE CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DOT THE 0-20NM MARINE
WATERS BOTH DAYS AND MARINERS SHOULD MAINTAIN RADAR UPDATES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL DRIVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH FLUCTUATIONS TO NE AND SE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
THOUGH...SO WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10
KTS...BUT WILL BE BELOW THIS THRESHOLDS MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...NO
SWELL FROM ERIKA WILL ADVECT LOCALLY...SO THE WEAKENING SWELL
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MBB/DL


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