Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 301916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...SOME MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE IN
PRIMARILY THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRIEST AIR ACROSS NC WITH A
DEEP PLUME FAR OFF THE COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AS IT RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH AND AT THE COAST A WEAK NORTHEAST RESULTANT BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS. REGARDING CONVECTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL FORECAST ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE
HIGHEST (ALBEIT LOW) PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. THUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP WITH LOWS BELOW CLIMO (MID 60S FAR INLAND TO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. H5 TROF ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA
STARTS TO LIFT TO THE NE TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NW
AROUND TO THE SW BY FRIDAY AND A WARM MOIST TRANSPORT OF AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET AS COASTAL TROUGH
PUSHES ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS AGAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY
REGION STARTS TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PWAT AT THIS TIME I HAVE
SCALED BACK ON THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE NIGHT
TIME WITH A BETTER CHANCE BY FRIDAY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR TEMPS/POP BUT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER POPS
FROM THE GFS ON FRIDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF COASTAL TROF MOVING ONSHORE SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION THREAT ACROSS REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. PWAT INCREASE ON
FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
INCREASE POPS TO OVER 40 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. STAGE IS SET
FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE
CLOUD COVER INHIBITS DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING CLIMO NORMS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BOTH WASH OUT AS MONDAY
PROGRESSES BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR A SIMILAR FORECAST. TUESDAY HAD PREVIOUSLY LOOKED LIKE A
MORE TYPICAL AUGUST DAY BUT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
MID LEVEL VEERING AND STILL SHOW SOME WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS
PASSING OVERHEAD. FEEL IT MAY BE BEST TO STILL SHOW A HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POP-BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL ALSO SHOW RISING
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART
ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE LINGERING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD FILLING IN ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTN WITH BASES GENERALLY 3-6KFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
FCST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY ABOVE 700 MB...RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTN
INDICATES ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. BUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY VCSH WITH THIS ISSUANCE. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME E-NE 5 KT OR LESS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS EARLY THU MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT. THOUGH THE WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OUT...INCREASING CIRRUS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP VSBYS AT VFR LEVELS INLAND. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY BR ATTM. VFR
WILL PERSIST INTO THU WITH EAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND
SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTERLY RESULTANT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE FLOW
SHOULD VEER AROUND TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE FLOW SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FT NEAR
THE COAST TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE DURING
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON
THURSDAY BUT INCREASE FRIDAY WITH COASTAL TROF MOVING ONSHORE.
WINDS MAINLY E TO SE ON THURSDAY VEERING TO THE S-SW BY FRIDAY.
WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SE WINDS ON SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST MOVES FURTHER WEST. SEAS AROUND
3 FT FOR THE MOST PART AS WIND WAVES QUITE LIGHT BUT WNA SPECTRAL
PLOTS SHOWING A SEERLY SWELL. HEADING INTO SUNDAY A MINOR VEER TO
THE S AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS ALLOWING WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT WITH LOCAL WIND
GENERATION. SEAS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY A SIMILAR ONE COMPASS POINT VEER TO SW CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY SHOULD THE
ATLANTIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STRENGTHEN BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP AND ITS FUTURE PATH AND STRENGTH STILL PRETTY
UP IN THE AIR.
&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MAC/SRP





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