Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 271723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH
BROUGHT SOME PASSING CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING
SUNNY SKIES BY MID MORNING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SC AROUND 4 TO 5K FT TO THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUNSHINE. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PCP BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IT SQUEEZED OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY
ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A QUARTER OF AN
INCH RISING UP NEAR A HALF INCH AS VORT MAX RIDES THROUGH THIS
AFTN. ANY SPRINKLES THAT FALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
MAINLY FROM LUMBERTON ACROSS TO ELIZABETHTOWN AND OVER TO THE
COAST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KICK UP AS THEY VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST IN DEEP COLD AND DRY FLOW ON BACK END OF MID TO
UPPER TROUGH. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR AS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT NW WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY
OF CAA WILL OFFSET FULL SUNSHINE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BASICALLY REACHING MID 50S.

DEEP DRY AND COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ON
THE BACK END OF UPPER TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE. THIS STRONG CAA WILL PRODUCE QUITE A DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT BRINGING READINGS DOWN NEAR FREEZING CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND BELOW 30 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...COOL BUT DRY FOR THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY FOR
MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SOLAR INSOLATION WILL DO LITTLE TO
WARM THE AREA THANKS TO 850MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -5C DURING FRIDAY.
COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER LATE FRIDAY...BUT THIS WILL ALSO HAVE
NO AFFECT ON DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH ONLY
ABOUT 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPR IMPULSE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF THEN AS
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ABOVE 500MB...WHICH MAY HAVE AT
LEAST A SOMEWHAT LIMITING EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT. CALM WINDS AND A DRY COLUMN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A COLD
NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE MOS NUMBERS ARE A BIT TOO COLD AND EXPECT
PRIMARILY UPPER 20S...LOW 30S AT THE BEACHES...AS OPPOSED TO THE MID
20S BEING DEPICTED IN A LOT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL STILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60 WITH LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW HELPING THE CAUSE. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MINS WILL FALL ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND...LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN AND MAYBE A FEW
SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID-WEEK.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE
TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST
DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER...BUT SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. CHANGES COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT LOOKS
MOISTURE STARVED...MOS P NUMBERS HAVE RISEN INTO THE CHC
RANGE...AND FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST INCREASING SATURATION BELOW
600MB. PWATS STAY BELOW 0.8 INCHES...AND THIS WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY END UP AS JUST INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INHERITED KEEPS POP JUST BELOW
MENTIONABLE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SILENCE FOR NOW...BUT AN
INCREASE TO SCHC MAY BE REQUIRED WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER
WAY...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND COOL NE WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY THE AREA BEGINS TO RECOVER
AGAIN HOWEVER...AS THE WEDGE GETS BROKEN DOWN BY THICKNESSES
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18 UTC...THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH AN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IMPULSE WILL EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET.

THE IMPACT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A STRATO-CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4000 FEET. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET MAINLY AT KLBT
AND KFLO. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND MORE OF AN ISSUE. THEY WILL BE FROM THE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 8
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FOG ON MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 IN OUTER WATERS. POTENT
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO
KICK UP WINDS WITH DEEP NW WINDS DEVELOPING. THE STRONG CAA
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A WELL MIXED GUSTY
MARINE LAYER OVER THE WATERS. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE BUT EXPECT UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
OF LOCAL MARINE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
TO 20 TO 25 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND FROM W TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN GRADUALLY BY
MORNING ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO WANE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE
WEST...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO FALL
FROM AROUND 20 KTS EARLY...TO 10 KTS BY NIGHTFALL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...CREATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BEFORE SW WINDS OF 10 KTS DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AS RETURN
FLOW SETS UP BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW HOURS OF 3-5 FT
SEAS WILL EXIST FIRST THING FRIDAY BEFORE THE WEAKENING WINDS HELP
SEAS FALL TO 1-3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...CHANGING ONLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...ABRUPTLY TURNING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
BE 1-3 FT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A SW WIND WAVE AND WEAK SE
SWELL COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...CREATING A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS






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