Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 021142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR


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