Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 030710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCURRING TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION IS A CERTAINTY
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WHILE A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
TO THE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COLUMN NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH P/W VALUES IN
THE 1.75 INCH RANGE TODAY AND CLOSER TO 1.50 INCHES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COOL AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOIST
COLUMN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MULTIPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF CONVECTION AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TRAINING STORMS GIVEN
ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION...SO HAVE RETAINED HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR
TODAY. EXPECTING QPF TOTALS OVER THE NEAR TERM IN THE ONE INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY. SPC KEEPS US IN A
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING FROM LOCALLY-STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HELP KEEP A LID ON DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY OF RIGHT AROUND 80
MOST PLACES WITH OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE FEATURE THRERFORE POPS WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY IN THE
LIKELY RANGE. SCALED BACK TO GOOD CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
WITH CHANCE INLAND. I DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT OVERALL
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED
AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH DURING MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A ZONAL PATTERN BEYOND
THIS. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WARRANTS A CONTINUATION
OF POPS...PRIMARILY ON A DIURNAL BASIS EACH DAY. SURFACE FEATURES
ARE WEAK AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY THEN A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BRIEF TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY WARMING A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHT
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS ADDED TO THE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOGS
AND LOW CIGS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. THIS ALONG WITH
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS COULD CREATE PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH VARYING LOW TO HIGH CLOUD HEIGHTS AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
LINGER...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS OF RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A VERY SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY IN THEIR CURRENT 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEFINE THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT THE SEA BREEZE AND
CONVECTION WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. SYNOPTICALLY A WEAK WEDGE
PATTERN WILL WARRANT NORTHEAST WINDS OUTSIDE OF THESE FEATURES. SEAS
REMAIN CAPPED AT 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE DIRECTION
INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. STILL THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN AT THE MERCY OF THE SEABREEZE AND AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 1-3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...REK/SGL


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