Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 300702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SE NC AND
VERY NE SC UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...OTHER LOCATIONS A
BIT MORE SHELTERED REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. CONSEQUENTLY
WILL NOT TINKER WITH THE ADVISORY AND LET IT RUN ITS COURSE.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ024-
     033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8



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