Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 061712
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1212 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moving northeast over the Carolinas will bring
a few showers through afternoon, cutting off by evening. Dry
and seasonable weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday
ahead of another cold front. Bone chilling cold air associated
with an Arctic High, will bring sub-freezing temperatures deep
in the 20s Saturday morning. A warming trend however will get
underway Sunday, and especially into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1212 PM Tuesday...Based on radar trends it appears that
additional QPF will be meager, and widespread rainfall coverage
early this afternoon was scaled back considerably, to scattered
becoming isolated into late afternoon, and even this may be
slightly generous. Plentiful clouds will remain but a few peeks
of sunshine over SC would not be a shock later this afternoon.
Temperatures have held in check well and no other substantial
changes were made with the midday updates. Light wind, partial
clearing and wet ground will lead to patchy dense fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Looking at benign weather Wednesday thru
Thursday afternoon as weak high pressure prevails with basically
the FA under a rather low amplitude longwave trof aloft that
affects much of the U.S. with Pacific origins. The trof aloft
amplifies-some during Thu into Fri enabling a piece of a 1050+
mb Arctic High to break and push toward the area late Thu
night. The cold or arctic front ahead of it is progged to push
across Thu afternoon and early evening. A thin band of moisture
along this front may be enough to squeeze out a few hundredths
of an inch of rain. With no tapping of any moisture, this front
may end up being a dry passage. The sfc pg tightens after its
passage Thu night and combined with excellent CAA as evidenced
with a nice packing of the various thickness fields dropping
across the FA, especially in the low levels when looking at the
1000-850mb thicknesses. Have basically stayed with a blend of
model guidance for max/min temps this period with temps running
at or slightly higher than the 30 year normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Very cold temperatures greet the extended
as an arctic front will be well offshore Friday morning. Highs
and lows Fri/Sat will be 10-15 degrees below climo, peaking in
the upper 40s both aftns, and dropping into the low 20s by
Saturday morning. This will be the coldest air since last
winter, and gusty winds Friday will create an even more
significant "bite" to the air despite full sunshine. The cold
Canadian high pressure responsible for this chill will push
offshore quickly by Sunday thanks to broad cyclonic flow aloft,
setting up a warming trend back to seasonable values Sunday and
into early next week. As this high moves offshore, return flow
develops, and a weak coastal trough may develop offshore,
advecting warm and moist air into the region for Monday ahead of
a rapidly approaching cold front for Monday night. This will
allow Monday to warm to above seasonable temps, but at the same
time rain chances will increase ahead of the front late on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18Z...Challenging conditions will continue through most of
the period for aviation interests with mostly IFR conditions
remaining in place. A complex low pressure and frontal system
will move northeastward this afternoon and overnight. Although
most of the rain will be coming to an end shortly persistent low
level moisture will be difficult to scour. There is a brief
window of opportunity for MVFR conditions this afternoon and
evening but with a weak pressure gradient setting up, IFR should
redevelop once again late this evening and be slow to erode
Wednesday morning.

Extended Outlook...Fog possible Wednesday night. VFR conditions
expected to prevail late week through this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1212 PM Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory all waters, as NE
waves every 5-6 seconds interacts with building SSW waves every
7-8 seconds. Changeable wind direction over the waters can be
expected as a coastal low migrates NE over the waters. Frying
Pan reporting S winds now with 7 ft waves every 7 seconds. The
ocean will remain dangerous today and tonight before seas and
winds begin to ease into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Tuesday...Leftover SCA or SCEC conditions possible
Wed morning. Overall, winds and seas will diminish and
subside respectively Wed thru Thu as weak high pressure
prevails. By late Wed afternoon thru early Thu, winds will
have become variable in direction at 10 kt or less. In lieu of
forecasting variable, will indicate a predominate direction.
A cold or arctic front is progged to push off the coast late Thu
afternoon and across the local waters and well offshore during
Thu evening. After the CFP, the sfc pg will tighten dramatically
and excellent CAA will prevail across the area waters Thu night.
Guidance indicates NW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt with gusts
over 30 kt possible as the core of the cold air begins pushing
across the local waters during the pre-dawn Fri hours.
Significant seas having mellowed to around 2 ft early Thu, will
rapidly build Thu night. With a NW wind direction, an offshore
trajectory, will indicate a range of seas building. Could see 1
to 3 ft near shore and 3 to 6 ft across the outer waters from
10 to 20 nm out.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...SCA conditions possible to greet Friday
morning as an arctic front will be positioned well offshore. In
the wake of this front early Friday, NW winds of 20-25 kts will
push seas up to 4-6 ft, and an SCA may be required. These winds
and elevated seas will fall through Friday however as high
pressure builds eastward. As this surface high moves eastward
and offshore the Mid-Atlantic region during the wknd, winds will
weaken to around 10 kts by late Saturday, with a slow veering
to the NW. Seas fall quickly late Friday and on Saturday as
well, from 3-5 ft Friday aftn to just 1-2 ft at the end of the
period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW/8
NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...JDW/8



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