Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 211407
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1007 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN
RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF LOW CLOUD
COVER LINGERING OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A
COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBS. OTHERWISE...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS
FOLLOWS...

AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...FINALLY...A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AND FOR
MOST...MORE PLEASURABLE WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
TODAY. CLOUDS NEAR AND AT THE COAST THIS MORNING...AND WRAPPING
AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
EROSION BY/DURING THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL HAVE A DEFINITE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD
EXPECT FOR LATE APRIL...MID 70S.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME UPSTREAM HIGHER CLOUDS WILL REACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE START WE ARE GETTING THIS MORNING...
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SIGNIFICANTLY RELAX AND
THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN ON SUN...BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY FROM THE N...UP TO
15 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD LIGHT BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER TROUGHINESS DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. SOME LEADING SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL...ALL WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD THUS BREAK OUT
FROM NW TO SE. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MEAGER...500 J/KG OR
LESS..AND GREATLY DIMINISHED CLOSER TO THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT
FROPA DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. THE FRONT IS THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DRY
AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL ONLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK
TUESDAYS WARM AFTERNOON BACK TO CLIMO FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST. IT WILL BE FAIRLY GRADUAL
HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOT ALLOWED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SOME
DEEP AND BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE LAKES. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
MAY FORM LATE IN THE WEEK BUT IT SEEMS TOO FEEBLE TO LEAD TO
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THIS MAY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE FINALLY PULLING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ILM WITH AN
MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING...SCATTERING LATER TODAY. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BECOMING A BIT LESS GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS...

AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE FROM S TO N
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N AT UP TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHOULD
FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD DURING THE DAY. HIGHLY AGITATED
SEAS...FROM DAYS OF STRONG NE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SEAS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON...SOUTH...AND MID EVE...N WATERS.

TONIGHT...N WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS BY DAYBREAK TUE WILL
BE 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INLAND TROUGH AND COASTAL RIDGE INITIALLY
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SWRLY PREFRONTAL FLOW. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
EXPECT JUST 10-15KT BUT LATE IN THE DAY SPEED WILL INCREASE A
BIT...EVENTUALLY INTO THE NEXT CATEGORY (15-20) BY NIGHTTIME. ADDING
ABOUT 1 FT TO SEAS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY ADVISORY OR SCEC HOWEVER IN
THE COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. PRETTY QUICK VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THAT TRIES TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ENDS UP REMAINING DISPLACED WELL TO OUR
NORTH SO WINDS WILL DECREASE AS WEDNESDAY WEARS ON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WIND SWITCHES FROM ONSHORE TO SWRLY ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE
INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 AS
THE RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A VERY EXPANSIVE LOW
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA/BJR
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43











USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.