Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 220519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...WATCHING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP
BETWEEN CHARLOTTE AND ROCKINGHAM WITHIN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
AND RATHER DENSE ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE I DID NOT INCREASE POPS TO 20 PERCENT JUST YET...THIS
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF MEASURABLE
RAIN CAN FALL ACROSS THE BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON VICINITY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWING 35 KT WSW WINDS AT 1000 FEET WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP...PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO INTO DAYBREAK
MONDAY AT BEST. MINS WERE RAISED TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S...MILDEST
NEAR THE COAST IN STRONGER WINDS AND BEING ADJACENT TO MILD SEA AND
ICWW TEMPERATURES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES MAY PREVAIL AT THE COAST INTO
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS INLAND A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS OUR WAY AND COULD APPROACH
THE COAST BY 12Z/8AM. NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
THROUGH 12Z SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SCARCITY OF
ECHOS AS THE FRONT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY MID-LVL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD ENDURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
SEAS WILL RISE ANOTHER FOOT...BRINGING 3 TO 4 FT SEAS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
PLANNED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SEAS A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 7-8
SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 3-4 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH/RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




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