Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 260730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MID WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING AT THE COAST
INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER
PARAMETER THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DRY AIR PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS A THIRD
OF AN INCH. THIS DRY AIR WILL AGAIN BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW VERY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO A DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE AND RESULTING MARINE INFLUENCES. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

A WANING NOCTURNAL JET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING AS COOL AS THEY WERE SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...MANY INLAND
AREAS WILL START THE DAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER TO MID
50S AT THE COAST. DRY AIR HEATS AND COOLS MOST EFFICIENTLY AND WE
AGAIN EXPECT A QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING WITH A
DIURNAL RANGE UP TO 25 TO 35 DEGREES...GREATEST INLAND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
WE EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SEASONABLY COOL ATLANTIC WATERS...A DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM EXCEEDING THE LOWER TO MID
70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BECOME STRONG UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS AND WITH THAT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY DURING THE
EVE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
INLAND AND AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES. THOSE TRADITIONALLY CHILLY
SPOTS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN
MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE
BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE
RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE
READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS
LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST
ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/
MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO
BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING.
STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN.

THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS
LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT
DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL.

THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE
FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z
ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS
EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD
AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING WEST THIS MORNING. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT ANY FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AOB 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVERHEAD BY MORNING. A WANING NOCTURNAL JET EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE
PERIOD...SUSTAINED UP TO AROUND 15 KT. THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW TODAY...BUT SHOULD BACK TO A MORE W
OR WSW DIRECTION ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. TONIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
THE N AND THEN NE AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TO THE E. SEAS WILL
ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL
EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE
TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT.
THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT
MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY
CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT
SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE
NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON
THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW








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