Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1209 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR INDIANA. THE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST OF INDIANA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN ADDITION TO CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEN
SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS A TRIM OF ONE OR TWO DEGREES IS IN ORDER
FOR HIGHS.

THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WE HAVE HAD NO OBSERVATIONS OF ANYTHING AT THE
GROUND...BUT THE ODD SNOWFLAKE COULD BE SPOTTED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR
INDICATES ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY NOON AFTER A WEAK WAVE
PASSES ALOFT. THE SATELLITE MAKES THIS LOOK REASONABLE.

AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THOUGHT...CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
THERE SEEMS TO BE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST OF SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

TONIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE
LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE CHANGE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL JUST KEEP ON CLIMBING RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS STRONG WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT SOME WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH VERY WEAK CHANCES UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONSIDERING THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND
HIGHER PWATS AND MOISTURE. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO
AT LEAST WIDESPREAD CHANCE WITH EVEN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE AND EVEN BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON VERY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. AND ACTUALLY INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY FOR
SAME REASON...AND ALSO FACTORED IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND CLOUDY
SKIES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...FOR SUNDAY UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. VERY
IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A FRONT SOUTH OF INDIANA AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT
THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND THE WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY FROM WEDNESDAY ON AND WITH A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THERE IS LITTLE TO KEY IN ON SO WILL JUST ACCEPT
INITIALIZATION...YIELDING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY WITH A
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR HAS DEVELOPED AT
LAF BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. MVFR OR WORSE MAY DEVELOP
AT THE SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.

EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. LOWER
CLOUD APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND THE MID MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT
08-15KT. SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY
NOT PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO MENTION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS AN
OUTSIDE CONCERN OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW CRITERIA SO WILL
LEAVE OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

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