Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 240807
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
407 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Rain showers will linger across central Indiana today as an area
of low pressure continues to rotate over the Great Lakes Region.
After a short break in the rain tonight, yet another upper wave
will bring low chances for additional rain showers tomorrow.
After that, ridging aloft will result in dry conditions and
slightly warmer temperatures for Thursday. Nonetheless, another
low pressure system will enter the Upper Midwest on Friday,
bringing a cool down and additional rain showers through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 334 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

The main focus of the near term will be rain chances as an upper
low lingers over the Great Lakes Region.

The highest pops will be across the northern counties during the
afternoon hours when upper forcing is best and moisture increases
on the back side of the upper low. Time cross sections show drier
mid levels this morning, but these are expected to fill in with
moisture by this afternoon.

Meanwhile, temperatures this afternoon will be chilly with highs
only in the upper 40s/low 50s. This was captured well with latest
initialization, so no changes were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 334 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Rain showers will end early tonight, and rapid clearing will
result in temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s. As a
result, patchy frost will continue to be a threat tonight and
tomorrow nights, will continue to monitor.

After weak ridging and dry conditions tonight, another upper wave
will bring low chances for rain showers across the northern
counties mainly tomorrow morning and afternoon. After that, high
pressure will bring dry conditions through the end of the forecast
period and a brief warm-up on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

The long term period will feature an amplified pattern initially
with a large upper level low over the Great Lakes and the eastern
portion of the country, and upper level ridging over the west.
Multiple frontal systems will bring opportunities for additional
rain to the area early in the weekend, and again early next week.
Temperatures will also be quite cool, with the freezing mark in
play in low temperatures for the first time this season over the
weekend.

Blended initialization handled things well with only minor
adjustments required.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/09Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 404 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Update...
Increased winds out of the southwest to 12 kts.

Previous Discussion...
A couple of upper waves, one moving into western Indiana and another
over eastern Iowa, will keep the threat for periodic shower activity
at the terminals through the midday hours of Tuesday. It appears the
better threat will be overnight, as the first wave looks to have
better lift associated with it.

Model data are rather bullish on the development of MVFR ceilings
015-025 overnight, which may linger past sunrise Tuesday. Ceilings
upstream look good at this time, so confidence in how widespread
lower ceilings will get is low.

Surface winds 230-260 degrees at 10-14 kts overnight are expected to
increase after sunrise Tuesday, with frequent surface gusts near 25
kts probable by midday Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD


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