Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 170744
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
244 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Surface high pressure will move east over the southern states late
this week. Gulf inflow around the high will allow for the cold
temperatures to climb to well above normal this weekend and into
next week. The southerly flow will also combine with lift from an
advancing frontal system and result in a rainy late weekend and
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Main focus for today will be on clouds and temperatures as an upper
trough moves into the Smokies and surface high pressure slides into
northeastern Texas. Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Model low level rh progs and rh time sections indicate the low
clouds will exit our southern counties by mid morning. Also, lake
plume should shift more into our northeastern counties before
existing this afternoon as boundary layer winds shift to westerly.
After that, should see some mid and high clouds during the afternoon
in the northwest flow aloft. All this points to a general partly
cloudy sky with temperatures still cold, but more than 10 degrees
higher than yesterday.

Temperatures will start off around 1 to 5 degrees at daybreak and
top out near 20 degrees. Meanwhile, wind chills will start off 2 to
10 degrees below and max out at 10 to 15 degrees above.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Good confidence as high pressure moves to the southeastern states,
southwest low level flow will allow for dry weather with an upswing
in temperatures. In addition, model layered rh progs and rh time
sections suggest clearing from west to east tonight and little cloud
cover the rest of the period.

Model thermals and limited cloud cover suggest a near 10 degree jump
in temperatures each day through Friday and temperatures at or above
the blend. Highs on Friday will become near normal to slightly
above, at least in the middle and upper 30s. Would not rule out 40
degrees at some locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Jan 17 2018

Ensembles in good agreement during this period. An upper trough is
expected to move through the area around Sunday or Monday. An
associated surface low pressure system is progged to pass through
the Great Lakes.

Will keep PoPs in the forecast from Saturday through Monday to cover
the passage of this feature. The dominate precipitation type during
this event looks to be rain, with a small potential for light mixed
precipitation at the tail end of the event Monday. Accumulations
appear unlikely at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 170600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1139 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Mainly MVFR ceilings at the sites to start the TAF period. Still
seeing scattered flurries around the sites but they are only very
rarely reducing visibilities below 6SM, so generally included them
as a VCSH. These flurries should taper off by daybreak. Ceilings
should rise sometime overnight or near daybreak as more scattering
occurs with high pressure building in. This is still only medium
confidence though as subsidence from the high could keep the low
level moisture trapped and keep ceilings from becoming VFR as
currently expected by around 12z or so. KLAF may start the period
VFR but then could see some bouncing between VFR and MVFR before
maintaining VFR ceilings within the next few hours.

Winds should be from 240 to 280 through the period at 4 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP



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