Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 020835
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS STORE TODAY. THIS MORNING A QUICK MOVING
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND MAY SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS MORNING RAINS EXIT AND DISSIPATE...WARM
AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
PASS ACROSS THE STATE EARLY ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...RESULTING IN STORMY WEATHER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA AND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER TH
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT EXITING THE ROCKIES AND ENTERING THE
WESTERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT STRETCHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO A DIFLUENT AREA OVER OHIO. RADAR SHOWED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

RAPID REFRESH THIS MORNING TAKES THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND GIVES
IT MORE OF A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY. GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW APPEARS MORE APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A SLOW
DECAY. THUS WILL TRY AND FOCUS MORNING POPS HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION THROUGH THE
COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DYNAMICS ALOFT APPEAR LIMITED.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES OVER 8 G/KG ARRIVES IN THE AREA. THUS WE WILL LOOK FOR
A BREAK IN ANY PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON....WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURNING AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINLY OF THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR DUE
TO POSSIBLE CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND
MEXMOS...WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
AND WILL USE A BLEND. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR RAIN TONIGHT. BY 00Z
FRIDAY THE GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 9 G/KG. UPPER SUPPORT IS
PLENTIFUL AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS POISED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA OVERNIGHT PROVIDING PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. LOWER
LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ALSO FAVORABLE. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD 100 POPS TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR ABOVE
MAVMOS AS THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO OCCUR UNTIL
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH
DRYER AIR ARRIVES AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST BY 18Z ALONG WITH THE
ACCESS TO MOIST AIR LONG THE ISENTROPIC SURFACE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.
WILL AIM FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH POPS AS ONGOING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 12Z. WILL TREND POPS LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

ALSO NOTEABLE ON FRIDAY IS THE STRONG LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
STRONG TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW -4C AND
THICKNESSES FALL TO BELOW 535. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS AMID A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WITH ALL THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF WINTER LIKE TRAPPED STRATOCU BENEATH A MID
LEVEL INVERSION. THUS WILL TRY TO KEEP A MENTION OF A SPRINKLE OR
LOW CHC POP ON SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BE TRENDING COLDER AT MOST TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEY IN A POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY OR MONDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE.

PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND HEIGHTS RISE. WILL GO DRY FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...HAS BEEN
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
EAST. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN THE KIND VICINITY LOOK RATHER POOR
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TODAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED
FARTHER WEST...DON/T THINK THE THREAT OF CONVECTION AT KIND IS HIGH
AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEARS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL AFTER 021200Z...
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MIDDAY. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
IFR...EXCEPT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR TO START AT THE SITES TONIGHT. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME OF THESE ECHOES MOVING INTO KHUF AND KLAF
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCSH AFTER 9Z BUT ALSO ADDED
SOME TEMPO SHRA IN FROM 11-13Z AS THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THE
FURTHER EAST THE SHOWERS AND STORMS GET. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING LEFT AT THAT POINT SO DID NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION. STILL SEEMS THAT RAIN WILL STAY TO THE WEST
OF KIND AND KBMG THIS MORNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE STORMS
STARTING TO FIRE AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SITES...AND THINK THEY
COULD BE MOVING INTO KIND AND KBMG AFTER 0Z. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A VCTS DURING THAT TIME. WIND
SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OUT BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.