Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 301912
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
312 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM, and LONG TERM sections
have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

High pressure will remain in control across central Indiana through
Tuesday night. An upper level system will swing through the Great
Lakes region midweek bringing chances for storms on Wednesday and
lingering into Thursday. Cooler and drier weather will return to end
the work week before precipitation chances return for the second
half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

A quiet night to cap off a beautiful Memorial Day. A few high clouds
will begin to filter into the area from the west ahead of the area`s
next storm system. Bumped up low temperatures accordingly across the
west to account for this, resulting in readings expected to range
from the low 60s in the east to the mid 60s in the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

More humid air will return to the region on Tuesday as the surface
ridge departs and southwest flow aloft increases ahead of an upper
low across the Northern Plains. Even with increasing cloud cover
ahead of this system, another day with high temperatures topping out
in the mid 80s is expected.

As the upper low tracks across northern Minnesota and southwest
Ontario, the first in a series of associated waves will propagate
through central Indiana on Wednesday. At this time, scattered storms
look to form ahead of a cold front currently progged to cross the
Illinois/Indiana state line Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will
spread across the area overnight but thunder chances could be
minimal as MUCAPE values quickly drop off throughout the evening.

More seasonable temperatures are expected on Thursday following the
passage of the cold front. Precipitation chances will quickly
decrease from west to east throughout the day with dry weather
returning by Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Model ensembles dig an upper trough into the Great Lakes and St.
Lawrence Valley during the long term. A cold front near the Ohio
River Thursday evening will move on to the south. Will mention a
slight chance of thunderstorms far south Thursday evening. Then
dry and seasonal weather will be the rule through early Saturday
as high pressure moves east across our region.

Another cold front will move across our region around Sunday and we
could see a few storms Late Saturday into Sunday. The Euro is dry
after that while the GFS indicates trace QPF Monday as the Great
Lakes upper trough deepens. Will lean towards the dry end of
guidance envelope after Sunday.

Made a few tweaks in temperatures but overall SuperBlend
temperatures seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 301800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions through the period.

High pressure centered over southern Illinois will drift east across
the area. Will see scattered cu this afternoon and again on Tuesday.
Otherwise, only thin high clouds other periods and no visibility
issues expected.

Winds will remain less than 10 kt.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



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