Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250221
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1020 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 440 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A series of front and/or upper disturbances will keep chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of central
Indiana into next week. Temperatures will be near to above average,
and humid conditions will continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 931 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Tail end of vorticity center currently passing into northwest Ohio is
lingering over the northeast zones. Should see a diminishing trend to the
convection in that area over the next couple of hours as this vorticity
tail moves off into Ohio.

Otherwise, this evening`s upper air and wind profilers indicate around 30 kts
of flow at the 850mb level, so potential exists for additional convective
development later tonight. Previous forecast handles this well.

Will make a decision by 250200Z on whether to cancel the remaining portions of
the Tornado Watch.

Previous discussion follows.

Due to severe weather the discussion will be short.

Upper system across Illinois will continue to produce scattered
convection across the area into early evening. Then there should be
a lull until perhaps a convective complex moves into northwest
sections late tonight.

Will go chance PoPs most areas, diminishing into early overnight.
Ramped back up late into low likely far northwest and chance
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 440 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Due to severe weather the discussion will be short.

A cold front will move through on Thursday but upper support is
weak. A potential thunderstorm complex could impact the far
northwest early in the day. Will go slight chance to chance PoPs
most areas, except likely early far northwest.

Kept low PoPs Thursday evening then dry as front sags south. Went
slight chance south Friday with front nearby. As a little upper
support returns along with the front Saturday went low PoPs.

Stuck with model blend on temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The blended forecast from the Regional initialization can be used
with moderate confidence.

The models generally agree in depicting a short wave trough moving
across the Great Lakes early in the period with a frontal
boundary gradually sinking south across our area Monday and
Tuesday. Prior to the fronts arrival in warm and unstable air
with upper troughing aiding in lift...expect the potential for
scattered convection. Once the front moves in and across the area
Monday the storm threat will be slightly higher. As that front
settles south of our area heights remain high and with humidity
still lingering...day time heating may still trigger some
isolated storms. By Wednesday another upper trough approaching
from the west will return a slightly higher storm threat and
slightly higher coverage as well.

With relatively high heights this will be a relatively warm
period with lows in the upper 60s or lower 70s...similar
to guidance...while highs generally reach mid 80s to around
90. Once the front moves through these readings will only drop a
category with lows into the low/mid 60s and highs mid 80s.
Dewpoints will only be slight drier.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Couple of small isolated cells located about 8-15 miles west of
the KIND terminal may briefly affect the terminal at times through
about 250400Z. Echo tops currently below 25 kft, so threat of
lightning strikes from this activity appears low at this time.

Previous discussion follows.

Scattered convection, associated with a vorticity center
currently moving though northern Indiana, continues to move
east across the area. Appears main convective threat will be
east of the terminal by issuance time, although can`t rule out
some additional convective development along the trailing
vorticity tail through about 250300Z in the KIND/KHUF/KBMG
vicinity.

Additional nocturnal convective development appears possible
after about 250700Z as 850mb flow increases to 25-30 kts in
association with the low level jet. Confidence in direct impacts
is low at this time, but it appears the best threat will be at
the KLAF terminal. Brief IFR visibility restrictions and gusty
shifting winds in and near heavier cells. CB bases 025-040.

Due to expected convective potential tonight, think air mass will
remain mixed up enough to keep any widespread or prolonged fog in
check.

Surface winds 200-230 degrees at 5-10 kts tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS



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