Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 061145
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING MILDER AIR NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF
A LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WAA...WILL COME LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TODAY AND MORE
LIMITED MIXING WHICH MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE ITEM OF LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTENT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. AN UPPER VORT MAX
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AS EVIDENT IN 00Z KILX RAOB WITH A PWAT OF 0.06
INCHES. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
WHICH WILL MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON (22Z-00Z) GIVEN EFFECTS OF SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LATE ONSET OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS EVEN
UPPER 20S FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WIND
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TEND TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS MORE PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINIMAL
TEMP DROPS INTO UPPER TEENS OR AROUND 20 ACROSS THE EAST EARLY
EVENING... BUT EXPECTING THERMAL ADVECTIONS TO BE DOMINANT TO
PROMOTE A STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO REACH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETAE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NW FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH OF THESE WAVES...COMBINED WITH CURRENT
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA...WILL INITIALLY TEMPER ANY FULL
REALIZATION OF THE WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE INCREASING ANGLE OF THE MARCH SUN
HELPS THE WARMING PROCESS THIS WEEKEND AS WAS NOTED LAST WEEK WITH
HIGHS SEVERAL DAYS 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
FORECASTS. EACH WAVE COULD BRING SOME VERY LGT SNOW OR RAIN WITH
BEST CHANCE SUN...BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY FAR N AREAS.

STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A REDUCED
SNOWPACK...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S AND
LIKELY INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS TO KEPT WITH IT FOR TEMPERATURES.
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SUPERBLEND PLACING CHC POPS IN THURSDAY. CAN`T SEE ANY REASON
TO RUN WITH THESE AS EVERYTHING WILL BE WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH...BARELY MAKING IT HERE BY LATE FRIDAY IF AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING ALLOWING FOR STEADILY STRENGTHENING GRADIENT. CORE OF SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO
SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AIDING IN SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE FROM 06Z
TAFS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS A BIT MORE TEMPERED INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AT KFWA.
ONLY SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION FOR TONIGHT
(WARM FRONT) MAY PROMOTE SOME MVFR CIGS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT
KSBN...BUT HELD OFF MENTION FOR NOW AT KFWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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