Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 252319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
719 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Cool weather is expected to continue through Tuesday with lows
generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. There is a low chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Mainly dry otherwise through the
middle of the week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Little change (cool/mainly dry) is expected into tonight and Monday
as an upper trough remains place across the Great Lakes. Low level
troughing and more pronounced bouts of CVA will also continue to
focus better shower chances north of the local area, though cannot
rule out a few showers into far nw IN/sw Lower MI this evening into
the early overnight as a smaller scale/moisture-starved shortwave
drops southeast from the Upper Midwest. Dry otherwise/elsewhere
tonight into Monday morning with lows in the low/mid 50s tonight.

Low chances for isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
creeps back into the forecast mid afternoon through early evening on
Monday, best chances along/south of US 30 away from more stable
lake influence as the next shortwave from the Upper Midwest
possibly capitalizes on steepening low-mid level lapse rates/weak
diurnal destabilization. Weak low level convergence and slightly
higher sfc dewpoints will also be in place here by peak heating.
However, meager moisture profiles precludes anything higher than a
20-30 PoP, with small hail possible given cool profile if any
stronger cells develop. The main story otherwise on Monday will be
unseasonably cool temps with highs only reaching near 70 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The eastward exit of the upper level trough will afford warming
temps and dry conditions into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
likely be followed by a more active/flatter west to west-southwest
flow regime Wednesday night through Friday. Increasing moisture
with strengthening south-southwest low level flow into a
developing frontal boundary will likely focus multiple
convectively enhanced shortwaves east through the Midwest/Great
Lakes during this time. The result will be periodic chances for
showers/storms, with perhaps a strong/severe/hvy rain threat at
some point given decent wind fields and high moisture content
showing up in guidance. Chances for precipitation then diminish
next weekend as incoming height falls/troughing eventually
suppresses active frontal zone off to the south.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Moisture at base of inversion aloft combined with wk lift
associated with shrtwv movg east from WI into wrn MI should cause
some alto cu to persist across nrn IN through the eve. Skies
should clear again by Monday morning but cu up quickly with
diurnal heating leading to vfr ceilings much of the day. Some
potential for shra/ts tomorrow aftn as a shrtwv drops se across
srn WI/MI. Best chc south of Rt 30 where better low level moisture
fcst, but with strong mixing once again, model`s boundary layer
moisture may be overdone. In either case, point pops too low for
inclusion in tafs attm. Rather strong gradient combined with diurnal
heating/mixing should lead to west winds gusting in the 20-25kt
range once again tomorrow.


IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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