Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 301033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A weak upper level trough and remnant frontal boundary will keep
chances for scattered showers and storms in the forecast today
into tonight, best chances during the afternoon hours. Partly to
mostly cloudy with highs into the upper 70s and low 80s otherwise
today. Mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures can be
expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in. A warm
front will then bring renewed chances for storms and humid
conditions into the region for the middle of next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Slow moving mid level trough axis over Lake MI/northern IL will
meander east through the Lower Lakes Today into tonight, while in
the low levels a remnant boundary remains in place over
northern/central IN/OH. The result will be more of the
same...chances for scattered showers/thunder and near normal temps.

A combination of weak elevated instability, ample moisture, and weak
isentropic lift/deformation may allow for a few showers (maybe a
rumble of thunder?) this morning for areas north of the US 30
corridor, though chances/coverage look low given latest radar/HRRR
trends. Diurnal heating/destabilization should no doubt allow for
an uptick in shower/storm coverage once again by this
afternoon/early evening, with the main threat locally heavy rain
given weak flow/moist environment.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Broad upper level trough will finally lift out of the region Sunday
into Monday allowing high pressure to build in...though lingering
sfc trough/lake breezes and building diurnal instability into
northern/eastern portions of the forecast area may be enough to
spark isolated showers/storms during the afternoon hours on

Troughing/negative height anomalies into the northwest US/western
half of Canada will allow an expansive upper ridge to build into the
Central US early-mid next week. Will have to monitor the
potential for a convective complex on the northeast fringe of this
feature into Tuesday-Wednesday as instability/theta-e gradient
attempts to mix northeast. Otherwise the story into the middle of
the week will be building heat/humidity, especially by Wednesday-
Thursday as ridge axis eventually folds over.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

LIFR conditions due to fog/stratus were widespread along and
south of a ppo-fwa line early this morning with mvfr conditions up
to the MI border. Diurnal heating/mixing should allow cigs/vsbys
to improve to vfr by midday. Sfc low and and upr level trof over
the area should cont to support deep convection, becoming more
widespread during peak heating. Flight conditions could lower to
ifr in this activity, hwvr, latest hrrr suggests convection across
nrn IN will be fairly sct this aftn, so for now stuck with vcts in
tafs. With no sgfnt change in airmass tonight, diurnal cooling
should lead to fog/stratus redeveloping over the area. Models/mos
in fairly good agreement in this regard so lowered conditions in
tafs to ifr by this time tomorrow.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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