Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 200145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
844 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Very wet and mild weather will continue through Wednesday morning.
Heavy rainfall will lead to flooding on rivers, streams, and low
lying areas prone to flooding. Temperatures will rise in the
upper 50s and low 60s tonight, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s by
Tuesday afternoon. Cooler and drier air should briefly work in later
Wednesday into Thursday for most areas.


Issued at 844 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Primary change overnight into Tue morning was to sharply tighten up
pop gradient across sern zones due in large part to w/nw placement
of low level theta-e ridge and proximity to larger scale forcing
aloft. Multi-model highres trends convincing enough especially with
upstream convection over cntrl IL and cntrl MO attm.  Lead cluster
will clip far nw toward midnight while MO cluster shifts up through
cntrl zones after midnight. Additional convective clustering likely
Tue mid morning tied to current development taking place through far
ne OK.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Periods of moderate to heavy rain, and perhaps some elevated
thunder, will continue to plague the local area with an increasing
hydrologic risk (lowland/river/stream flooding) through Wednesday
morning. Anomalously moist lower to middle tropospheric flow and a
train of lower amplitude impulses the culprit near a stalling
frontal zone draped across the Great Lakes and Mid MS Valley.
Areas west of I-69 in nrn IN/sw Lower MI still appear to be in
line for the highest rainfall totals (3-4", locally up to 5")
through Wednesday morning, with slightly lower amounts expected
southeast of US 24 as main frontal band likely focuses off to the
west for a time Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Will continue to
highlight flooding potential in the Flood Watch and in river
products. Unseasonably mild otherwise as highs tomorrow
potentially break records.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Above normal temps and periodic chances for rain will continue into
the long term as frontal zone oscillates between the lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley in between a persistent Southeast US ridge and
Western US mean upper trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Mod to heavy rain invof KSBN this evening will diminish somewhat
overnight before likely concentrating once again toward daybreak.
General IFR conditions expected to persist there this period nearer
to low level frontal zone. KFWA on the other hand going deeper into
the warm sector and expect rain will end there for the most part
toward mid evening with prevailing VFR into Tue morning. LLWS will
continue through the period given sustained/strong LLJ although not
mention mid morning Tue on for KFWA as they mix sufficiently to
promote swrly sfc gusts to ~30kts.


IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ003>009-012>018-

MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MIZ077>081.

OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OHZ001-002-004-005-



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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