Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 270803
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
403 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
A few showers continue across the southern portions of the area
early this morning. Otherwise, light winds, mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies prevailed with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.
The Bermuda high, centered to the east and southeast of the
region, will strengthen today, and stronger subsidence with drier
air in the mid/upper levels will prevail over the region. Drier
air in the mid levels will continue pushing northwest into the
region through tonight. Rain chances will be well below normal,
with isolated to widely scattered showers/storms across interior
northeast Florida, concentrating along the I-75 corridor, in the
late afternoon to evening hours. The heat will continue, with
highs reaching the mid to upper 90s inland, and heat indices
around 105F. Overnight lows will be mild in the 70s.
See the Climate section below for information on how hot and dry
it has been across the region.
.SHORT TERM (Thursday-Friday night)...
The Bermuda High will continue across the area resulting
in subsidence aloft and a continuation of hot/humid
conditions. The axis of the 1000-500 mb ridge will be just
south of the area. Convection will be limited due to subsidence
aloft and confined to inland areas of northeast Florida where the
primary mechanism for lift will be where seabreezes and outflows
merge. Any storms that manage to get going will fade in the eve
after the loss of heating. Hot afternoon temps in the mid/upper
90s inland when combined with the humidity will produce heat
indices around 105 degrees. Coastal areas will be slightly cooler
due to the afternoon seabreeze.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Models indicate the large ridge over the area will flatten out
some from short wave moving into the Ohio and Tenn valleys.
Moisture levels also gradually increase as the low level ridge
shifts north into the area. This will lead to diurnal convection
with seabreezes being the main focus. Temps to continue above
average with highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices 100
to 105 degrees. Slightly cooler temps at the coast in the
afternoon from the seabreeze.
VFR conditions forecast to prevail through the period. Light
winds early this morning will become southeast around 10 knots in
the afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Storms are possible
near KGNV in the late afternoon to early evening.
Surface ridge south of the waters will provide a southwest flow
the next few days with daily shifts to the southeast near the
coast as the sea breeze moves inland. Nocturnal wind surges
offshore are expected each night, with winds increasing to around
15 knots. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet.
Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents through Thursday.
Very hot and dry conditions will continue through the end of the
month, with most of the climate sites likely recording a top 10
driest and warmest July on record. The cool mornings at
Jacksonville will likely keep it out of the top 10 for average
temperature. Below normal rain chances are forecast each day at
the climate sites through the end of the month. The best chance
for rain is the last day of the month, on July 31st (25-40%
chance). St. Simons Island needs more than double the rainfall
received so far this month to not set a record driest July
(current record is 1.02" in 1988). High temperatures will remain
well above normal each day, and a top 5 warmest July on record
based on average maximum temperature is likely at the climate
Through July 26th...Rankings below for driest July so Far
Jacksonville 1.69" (6th Driest)
Gainesville 1.48" (3rd Driest)
Alma GA 1.06" (4th Driest)
St Simons Island 0.45" (All-time Driest)
Through 7/26...Rankings for Warmest July (based on Avg Temp)
Jacksonville 84.1F (15th Warmest)
Gainesville 83.3F (7th Warmest)
Alma GA 84.2F (3rd Warmest)
St. Simons Island 85.2F (3rd Warmest)
Through 7/26...Rankings for Warmest July (based on Avg Max Temp)
Jacksonville 95.5F (3rd Warmest)
Gainesville 94.2F (Tied for 5th
Warmest) Alma GA 95.8F (2nd Warmest)
St Simons Island 93.1F (3rd Warmest)
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 97 74 97 73 / 10 0 10 10
SSI 93 77 94 79 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 97 74 96 75 / 10 10 20 10
SGJ 93 75 93 77 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 96 72 95 73 / 20 20 20 10
OCF 96 75 95 74 / 30 40 20 10