Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 211333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
833 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE FL THIS MORNING...AS
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE RIDES ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP WILL ENTER THE JAX METRO
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD TO NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NE FL
LATE THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ACROSS SE GA
AND HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWNWARD INTO THIS AFTN. PRECIP WILL FILL IN
THIS AFTN...AS THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL MOVES NORTH INTO SE GA
AND THE NEXT IMPULSE MOVES INTO NE FL FROM THE EASTERN GULF.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF SE GA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH
60S FOR NE FL NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND LOWER/MID 70S
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AT GNV THIS AFTN. FOR PRECIP...WILL MAINLY USE
VCSH...WITH A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING RAIN THIS MORNING
FOR JAX/VQQ/CRG.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW END SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT BUOY 41008 THIS MORNING...AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH. THE GRADIENT IS NEARLY
REACHING ITS PEAK...AND WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE THE CAUTION FOR THE SE GA/EXTREME NE FL
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT
TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. LOW RISK MONDAY UNDER OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  50  63  55 /  60  70  60  40
SSI  59  54  63  57 /  60  80  80  40
JAX  64  57  70  59 /  90  90  80  40
SGJ  69  60  70  61 /  60  90  80  40
GNV  70  61  72  63 /  80  90  90  40
OCF  74  62  74  63 /  70  80  90  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/CORDERO/PETERSON





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