Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 050101
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
901 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS OVER SE GA CONTINUE TO EVER SO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BUT THE COLD FRONT STILL RESIDES
OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE FRONT CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE AND ST
AUGUSTINE. A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CATALYST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS HERE EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 0Z KJAX SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER COLD 500MB TEMP OF -16C BUT
THANKFULLY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST ABOVE 500MB WITH
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE HAS KEPT THESE NEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK WITH
ONLY LOW TOPS. SOME SMALL MAINLY PEA SIZED HAIL HOWEVER WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EASTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...GIVING THE COLD
FRONT A GOOD SHOVE TO OUR SOUTH ONCE AND FOR ALL WITH MUCH COOLER
AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER INLAND AREAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COOLER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON THURSDAY WITH RATHER
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
MPH AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
ON THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  72  47  75 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  59  73  53  75 /  10   0   0  10
JAX  55  76  49  76 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  60  76  54  75 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  55  77  49  77 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  55  80  49  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/WOLF/PETERSON



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