Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 300808
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
408 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH AS A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW. THE BOUNDARY WILL
SINK INTO NORTHEAST FL AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AROUND.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS...DEVELOPING
IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY...AND ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION MAINLY FOR THE
EVENING HOURS OVER THE NRN ZONES. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
AN ISOLD STRONG STORM COULD AFFECT SE GA GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT/500 MB TEMP OF NEAR -17C IN THE EVENING BUT INCREASED
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SWD WED AND WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS. DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHEST POPS ARE INLAND IN THE UPPER 30
PERCENT RANGE WHILE HIGHS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...MID 70S AT THE
COAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF COASTAL
SHOWERS GIVEN BROAD SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SEWD
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO MAINLY SLY AND
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN SETTING UP A RELATIVELY DRY AND MORE
SUNNY PERIOD DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. SWLY FLOW
EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES ADVERTISED FOR THE NRN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION. NOT A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM SO POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AS WELL WITH ECMWF SOME 6-12 HOURS FASTER. COOLER AND
BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SWD INTO CENTRAL FL WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
SE ZONES ON MODERATE NELY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS 06Z TAF
PERIOD. A COOL FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT. A BRIEF RESTRICTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO THE NEAR THE GA/FL
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH OF AREA
WATERS ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS PRETTY WEAK...AND WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON WIND SPEEDS OR WAVE HEIGHTS. ANOTHER WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST OF AREA WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MAINLY IN LOW RISK CATEGORY TODAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW SWELL HEIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH TODAY RANGES FROM NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FROM MARION AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES UP TO THE MID 40S IN SE GA. DISPERSION LEVELS ARE
ELEVATED TODAY UP AROUND 80-100 IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY MAINLY IN SE GA AND GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH LIKELY IN MOST COUNTIES BUT ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA. RH
VALUES APPEAR TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WINDS
SHOULD BE WEAKER BUT DISPERSION LEVELS POTENTIAL HIGH ONCE AGAIN
ABOVE 75.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  48  80  59 /  40  40  30  30
SSI  70  54  73  60 /  30  40  20  20
JAX  76  53  81  60 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  74  57  77  61 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  76  53  82  59 /   0  20  20  10
OCF  77  54  83  59 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY


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