Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 020908
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
508 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...SYNOPTICALLY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS COVERING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SFC...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PROGRESSING WELL INLAND AND THE
COASTAL BREEZES MERGER OCCURRING NEAR INTERSTATE 75. HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH AROUND 60 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL PARTS OF FLORIDA THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW 90S.

.TONIGHT...
CONVECTION OVER LAND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BE FOCUSED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST.

SUN & MON...UNSETTLED WX WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. AN EASTERLY WAVE NEARING THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES EXPECTED TO BLANKET NE FL AND SE GA SUN AND MON. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES...SO WILL UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS AN ANONYMOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH
AN INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE -7 TO -9 DEG C RANGE PER
THE GFS. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
WITH 50-60% RAIN CHANCES FIRST DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
IN THE EARLY AFTN...THEN ACTIVITY PROGRESSING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA WHERE FORCING WILL BE
STRONGER...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE HAZARDS STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE VERY LIGHT 10 KTS OR LESS AND TO THE
NE...BUT ANTICIPATED CONVECTION WILL PRIMARY BE OUTFLOW DRIVEN
ONCE THE SEA BREEZE INITIATE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90...AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S TO UPPER 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

TUE...SLIGHTLY LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOME...BUT STRONG UPPER FORCING REMAINS. STRONGER SW
STEERING FLOW BRINGING MORNING SHOWERS/TSTORM INLAND FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION...WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTN/EVENING AS HEATING INCREASES AND THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TREKS INLAND. STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG/SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT...

A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER S FL EDGES NORTHWARD WED-FRI WHILE A WEAK TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A LIGHT SSW
STEERING FLOW WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE ADVERTISED
DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY SAT LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW IS
EXPECTED AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS
EAST COAST WITH A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
TRENDED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES TOWARD CLIMO VALUES IN THE 30-40%
RANGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED...BUT
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT STORM SEVERITY.

TS BERTHA...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT BERTHA RE-CURVING
TO THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE
CONUS EASTERN SEABOARD. THE MAIN LOCAL IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED
SWELLS NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CALLING FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
HANGING AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE HAVING ANY
EFFECT ON THE TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED. PATCHY FOG IS CURRENTLY
CREATING MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT VQQ AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BEST COVERAGE BEING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2-4
FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ON MONDAY AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  90  73 /  70  50  60  60
SSI  87  77  85  76 /  50  30  60  30
JAX  91  76  89  74 /  60  40  60  30
SGJ  88  77  87  75 /  50  30  60  20
GNV  93  73  90  72 /  60  50  60  60
OCF  92  73  91  73 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET/





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