Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 052031
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT THEN MUCH COLDER FRI/FRI NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD FORMED OVER THE AREA TODAY UNDER
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREETS ORIENTED SW-NE AND
NOT MUCH CHANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATION BY THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. HIGH TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RECENT TSTORMS NOTED NEAR
THE FL GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY TREK EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING OUR INLAND SE GA ZONES AND PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNSET WITH A FEW PINHEAD
SHOWERS POPPING EAST OF THE LINE. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION MAINLY ACROSS OUR INLAND SE GA ZONES AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 800-1000 J/KG NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION...DO
NOT EXPECTED STRONG STORMS.

THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COOLER AND BREEZY
NNE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A NOTABLE COOL DOWN WITH LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT FALLING
INTO THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK TO THE 50S OVER NE FL.

.SHORT TERM...FRI THROUGH SUN...

A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING AS WE GO FROM
A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DREARY AND COOL DAY WITH BREEZY AND WET
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE
MORNING AND THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AS A THICK DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RESULTS IN
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT THE COAST WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW
40S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE BUT ENOUGH CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE. LOWS ACROSS NE FL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL HOLD
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT.

THE WEEKEND IS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY
THE AREA WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE JUST A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL EVEN MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY AS THE
LOW TRACKS INTO THE AREA. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SW WINDS WHERE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CIGS WERE PREVAILING VFR UNDER A THICK CUMULUS FIELD GENERALLY
BETWEEN 4-5 KFT. AS THE COLD FRONT AN PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACH
FROM THE WNW THIS EVENING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH
VCSH. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY NORTH TRAILING THE FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL SITES. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO FADE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER EXPANSIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY
UNDER COOLER NNE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS AS ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL NNE WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRI WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
ELEVATED SWELLS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FRI AS
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING BUILDING SWELLS AND ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  51  32  66 /  40  10  10   0
SSI  47  48  37  61 /  60  20  10   0
JAX  50  51  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  56  57  44  62 /  20  50  30   0
GNV  54  55  39  70 /  30  40  10   0
OCF  59  60  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/


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