Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 300342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1042 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH A THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
APPROACHING THE ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE RIVERS. HIGH PRESSURE (1024
MILLIBARS) IS SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...PUSHING A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS IS OVERSPREADING OUR
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS MAY FOSTER AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...AND THE HIGH RES HRRR
MODEL INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
ADVECT EASTWARD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN APPEAR MINIMAL FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH
10-20% CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY RISE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...WITH LOWS IN NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL LIKELY
OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE.

STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN
IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 60-65 EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT GNV FROM AROUND 10Z-12Z. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM 1500-2500 FEET
EXPECTED FROM AROUND 11Z-16Z ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 16Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...BECOMING
WESTERLY TOWARDS 10Z AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 15Z. WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER
12Z...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
NEAR SHORE AFTER SUNRISE WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO A NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS OF CAUTION TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS OFFSHORE
BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SETTLES OVER OUR REGION.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO OFFSHORE
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  57  33  59 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  49  56  39  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  45  62  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  46  62  43  60 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  43  65  34  66 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  44  67  36  68 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/PETERSON/WALKER



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