Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 012004
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
405 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WEAK LIFT NORTH OF OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FLORIDA ALONG WITH MINIMAL HEATING HAS
TRIGGERED SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL
SOUTH OF I-10...NOT SURE IF ENOUGH HEATING IS OCCURRING TO TRIGGER A
FEW STORMS BUT IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED INTACT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. RAINFALL NOT OVERLY ORGANIZED BUT A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND
SUNSET EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE IT WILL LINGER IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE ALONG THE ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY
COASTLINES. MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE PERSISTENCE OF
LOW-MID CLOUD DECK AND ITS IMPACT ON FOG FORMATION. THIS PERSISTENT
FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT ACRS MOST OF NE FL AND WILL GO
WITH ONLY "PATCHY FOG" IN THESE AREAS...WHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST
ACROSS INLD SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IF THE CLOUDS BECOME
SCATTERED EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AND POSSIBLY DENSE
FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...FOR NOW WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THE
CLOUDS BREAKING APART HAVE GONE WITH "AREAS OF FOG" BUT THIS MAY BE
UPGRADED TO "AREAS OF DENSE FOG" AS THE NEXT SHIFT DIAGNOSIS OF FOG
POTENTIAL MAY CHANGE. LOWS STILL GENERALLY IN THE 60S INLAND AND 70S
ALONG THE COAST/I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

.SHORT TERM /THU-FRI/...
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL LOCALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSING OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BELOW 850 MILLIBARS (5000
FT)...WHICH MAY KEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BOOST
HIGHS INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S...WITH WEAK E/NE FLOW KEEPING COASTAL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL FL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THAT WILL BE PUSHING WESTWARD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GA. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER
70S AT THE COAST.

DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SEASON`S FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT. LONG-TERM MODELS HAVE DELAYED
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. W/SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO INITIATE
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO NUMEROUS
THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION POSSIBLE NEAR THE ST. JOHN`S
RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CAP AFTERNOON AND
EVENING POPS TO HIGH END SCATTERED FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FL...AND WILL AWAIT MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING COVERAGE IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS FILTERING INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA BY SAT MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS IN THESE
LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO THE MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COVER THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.

.LONG TERM /SAT-WED/...
SCATTERED MAINLY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT...WITH A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS PLUNGING INTO SOUTHEAST GA AS NORTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON SAT NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
DIMINISHING NW/N WINDS...WHICH WILL BRING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SINCE EARLY MAY TO OUR REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
REGION-WIDE BENEATH SUNNY SKIES...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INO THE
30S FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND 40S ELSEWHERE. DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT POSSIBLY CROSSING
OUR REGION ON TUES OR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED BY TUES REGION-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STUBBORN CLOUD DECK IN THE 4000-6000 FEET RANGE WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS
IN VCSH ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL NE
FL TAF SITES WHILE KSSI REMAINS VFR. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO AROUND
5000 FEET NEAR SUNSET WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AND
THIS LEAVES THE FOG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FOR NOW HAVE GONE IN
BETWEEN NO FOG AND DENSE FOG SCENARIO WITH 4-5 SM VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TAF SITES BY EARLY THU MORNING...AND 1-3SM VSBYS POSSIBLE
FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES OF KVQQ/KGNV. STILL EVERYTHING WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT CAN OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
EAST TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE ON THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING THURS NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRI...WITH
AN EVENING SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS BY
SUNSET...AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS OFFSHORE. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY SPEEDS (20 KTS) SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SAT MORNING...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 4-6 FT
OFFSHORE...WITH OCCASIONAL HEIGHTS UP TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BY SUN MORNING...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS
OFFSHORE AFTER SUNRISE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LINGERS IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL IS PUSHING A MINOR FLOOD WAVE DOWN THE ST MARY`S
RIVER BASIN AND FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WATER LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS WELL FROM JACKSONVILLE
SOUTHWARD TO PALATKA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JACKSONVILLE AND GAINESVILLE BOTH REPORTED 30TH WETTEST SEPTEMBER
ON RECORD DATING BACK TO THE LATE 1800`S AND BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTED THEIR GREATEST MONTHLY TOTAL SINCE JUNE 2012. LAKE CITY`S
13.73 INCHES WAS THEIR 2ND WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD DATING BACK
TO 1893...ONLY BEHIND SEP 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  88  68  86 /   0  10  20  60
SSI  70  82  72  83 /   0  10  10  50
JAX  67  85  69  87 /  10  20  10  50
SGJ  73  84  71  86 /  20  20  10  50
GNV  67  88  68  88 /  10  40  30  40
OCF  69  89  69  88 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH







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