Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250000
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
700 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.UPDATE...Strong upper ridge over the area supporting warm
surface conditions...with record high tied at Alma today.
Additional records may be tied or broken Sunday. Mild night
tonight with low temps in low-mid 60s.

Only isolated light showers have developed with sea breezes this
afternoon and early evening...likely due to dry air entrainment
and strong inversion at 700mb. HRRR...NAM...GFS all insist that
scattered showers will develop 00z-03z with merging sea breezes
GNV-OCF...with showers spreading to JAX area 03z-06z. SREF precip
probs as high as 50-60 pct KVQQ to KGNV. This despite models
showing very dry air and strong 700mb inversion. Will maintain 20
pct POPs through the evening KGNV-KOCF areas where a few showers
may develop as sea breezes converge. With loss of heating and
decent inversion aloft...will end any rain chances by midnight.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR next 24 hours...may be some patchy
fog 08-12z. Maintained VCSH at KGNV for isolated showers with
sea breeze boundaries in the area.

&&

.MARINE...No changes planned in the next CWF issuance.
Southerly winds of 10-15 kt and seas of 3-5 ft tonight through
Sunday night and then as a front approaches early Monday winds may
lay down a bit as pressure gradient relaxes as sfc ridge dips
further south. Frontal passage then expected Monday aftn/evening
with winds shifting around to northeast Monday night and Tuesday.
Winds still expected to veer quickly to the south Wed as a warm
front lifts northward over the waters ahead of a stronger frontal
system which will impact the waters late in the week with the
potential for advisory conditions under WNW flow.

Rip Currents: Elevated rip current risk due to easterly swells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  84  64  78 /   0  20  20  60
SSI  64  78  64  76 /  10  20  10  30
JAX  64  86  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
SGJ  66  83  64  81 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  63  84  64  83 /  30  10  10  20
OCF  63  85  64  84 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Hess/Peterson



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