Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 220801
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
301 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

...Numerous Severe Storms expected Today...

...Very Windy with near record warmth Today...

.NEAR TERM....Today and tonight...Today will bring windy and warm
conditions with near record temperatures...and severe storms.
First round of storms will move across interior se Ga early this
morning with the main threat being the possibility of isolated
large hail and locally heavy rainfall. Upper low now near Ok/Tx
border will move east into Ms this afternoon with models showing
a prefrontal squall line developing to the west and sweeping east
across the area this afternoon. Damaging winds will be likely with
the line and SPC Convective Day 1 outlook shows a Moderate risk
across se Ga and ne Fl. Large hail and tornadoes will also be
possible in any cells that form out ahead of the line. High
temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s. Outside of storms...
southwest winds will be 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. A
wind advisory will be in for today. Thunderstorms will push
offshore early this evening with cooler air moving in with the
frontal passage. Temperatures will fall into the 50s tonight with
breezy conditions making it feel cooler.

.SHORT TERM /Monday-Tuesday Night/...

Monday...Large/Intense Stacked Low pressure over the Carolinas
will drift slowly and trof axis extending south of this feature
will cross the region with just a slight chance of a shower but
most areas will remain dry. Wraparound clouds will keep SE GA
cloudy with NE FL having partial sunshine at times. West winds
will be windy at 15-25G35 mph and another Wind Advisory may be
required. Max Temps will be cooler but near climo levels in the
60s.

Monday Night...Stacked Low will drift further NE off the Mid Atlc
Coast and will allow for skies to clear as winds slowly decrease
and become W/NW and subside to around 10 mph overnight. Lows
generally in the 40s area-wide.

Tue & Tue Night...High Pressure Ridge builds over the region from
the west with mainly sunny skies and near climo/cooler temps
continuing with Highs in the 60s and Lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday-Saturday/...

Wednesday...High Pressure builds offshore and flow becomes SWly
and Highs will warm well into the 70s.

Thursday...Weakening cold frontal boundary to push through with
scattered showers through the day, while max temps still slightly
above normal around 70 degrees.

Fri/Sat...High pressure builds west of the region and much cooler
NWly steering flow will hold max temps generally in the 50s and
min temps in the 30s/40s but zonal flow aloft may produce abundant
higher clouds aloft which may hinder any significant freeze
events and enough moisture pushes in with this flow aloft to
possibly trigger a few isolated showers across NE FL by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect LLWS with some MVFR cigs early this morning
and isoalated showers at TAF sites. Expect VFR conditions 14-18z
outside of shower activity. Thunderstorms will increase this
afternoon with cigs/vsbys lowering to IFR conditions in heavy
downpours and strong wind gusts. SW winds will increase by midday
to around 25g35kt...with higher gusts in thunderstorms this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Sw winds will increase today with advisory conditions
near shore and frequent Gale force gusts offshore. Squall line
will move across the waters early this evening with severe wind
gusts andheavy downpours likely. Activity will end from the west
beforemidnight with strong winds and rough seas continuing into
Tuesday.High pressure will move into the area and bring
decreasingwinds/seas for Tuesday night and Wednesday. A cold front
will moveacross the area on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today...becoming low on Monday as winds
become offshore.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY (JAN 22ND)
JAX 82/1999...GNV 84/1937...AMG 81/1999...SSI 77/1954

ALL TIME RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY
JAX 85/2013...GNV 89/1943...AMG 83/2013...SSI 83/1972

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  52  64  44 / 100  40  10   0
SSI  78  56  65  47 /  90  70  10   0
JAX  84  55  68  46 /  80  50  10   0
SGJ  81  56  69  47 /  70  70  10   0
GNV  83  54  67  44 /  70  50  10   0
OCF  83  57  68  46 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-
     Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
     Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Tuesday
     for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Zibura/Hess/Elsenheimer


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