Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 301418
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION
TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD ENABLE SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NE FL...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND E OF A LINE FROM JAX TO GNV. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING AS VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALREADY SUGGESTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 RANGE
ACROSS NE FL AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE
STORM AROUND THE PUTNAM/FLAGLER/ST JOHNS COUNTY AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS LOWER THAN PRIOR DAYS AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN AS WELL AS ADDED CLOUD COVER. MINOR TWEAKS TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER NE FL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/NARRE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY BUT LIFR AT GNV AS OF 14Z AS LOW
CLOUDS AND VSBY STILL AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. ANTICIPATE SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR AT GNV AROUND 16Z AND THEN VFR WITH CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY IN THE AFTN FOR TAFS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR NE FL
TAFS AND LOWER FOR SSI. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY TEMPO GROUPS
ATTM FOR NE FL TERMINALS. SLOW CLEARING VFR SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NLY ABOUT 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY AS
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SEWD. SEAS ~2-4 FT. A SHARPER INCREASE TO N/NW
15-20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL MAKE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AND WEATHER FOR TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK DUE LOW SEAS AND VERY LITTLE SWELL ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  48  74  40 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  75  58  72  47 /  30  20   0   0
JAX  80  54  75  45 /  30  30   0   0
SGJ  78  59  74  50 /  40  30  10   0
GNV  81  53  75  45 /  40  30   0   0
OCF  82  55  77  46 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/GUILLET





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