Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 041847
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER INLAND NE FL...NEAR TROUGH AXIS
TO THE SOUTH WHERE MORE MOISTURE EXISTS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND OVER SE GA AND NE FL.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN THE LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE EAST COAST
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE
WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES
OFF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SFC...INVERTED TROUGH DRIFTS NORTHWARD OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD DOWN
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH INLAND GUSTING 10-15 MPH
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT ON MONDAY AS
TROUGH WEAKENS. WITH TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS IN THE RANGE OF 1.50
TO 1.75 INCHES EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US TURNS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER THE GOMEX. SFC HIGH WEDGED DOWN ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC STATES
WILL WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND STACKED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND FL PENINSULA. AS COASTAL TROUGH DEGENERATES WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR EAST. TUESDAY
SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL COVERAGE PATTERN
OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AS RIDGE BUILDS IN AND LOW PRESSES
FARTHER TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY INLAND
AREAS AND HAVE TEMPO TSRA AT GNV TIL 21Z. LESSER CHANCES NEAR THE
EAST COAST AS SEABREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND. HAVE VCTS AT SSI AND
JACKSONVILLE AREA TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
MORNING AS A NE SURGE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  91  71  88 /  20  50  30  40
SSI  78  85  76  84 /  20  20  30  30
JAX  74  88  73  86 /  20  20  20  40
SGJ  75  86  76  85 /  20  20  20  50
GNV  72  89  72  87 /  20  50  20  50
OCF  72  90  72  87 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/ZIBURA/COMBS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.