Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 210654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
254 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

...Areas of Dense Fog Early This Morning...

...Much Cooler Airmass over the region this weekend...

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

Early this morning...Stratus and fog development generally along the
I-95 and U.S. 301 corridors with areas of dense fog embedded in this
zone at times. Still some question as to how widespread this will
become towards morning and will continue to monitor for possible
dense fog advisory if widespread <= 1/4 mile fog develops.

Today...Dry Cold Frontal passage still on track with partly cloudy
skies and breezy NW winds developing at 15-20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph at times. Max Temps will still be able to push into the lower
80s SE GA and mid/upper 80s across NE FL.

Tonight...Colder airmass arrives and skies become clear as NW winds
remain elevated around 10 mph through the night and will feel rather
chilly with Min Temps bottoming out in the mid/upper 40s inland and
50s closer to the coast and through the St. Johns River Basin.

.SHORT TERM /Saturday and Sunday/...

Deep northwesterly flow will usher in a cooler and drier airmass
on Saturday. The weekend will feature clear skies and seasonably
comfortable daytime temps and colder than normal nighttime temps
(with min temps a solid 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Saturday
night). The cooler side of guidance was favored for nighttime
temps given favorable setup for strong radiational cooling
conditions. Winds will become more light and variable on Sunday
as ridging begins to work back in from the west. Lower humidity
levels will prevail throughout the weekend.

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...

High pressure will continue to build in on Monday and temps will
begin to rebound with daytime temps near normal levels. Nighttime
temps, however, will remain below normal on Monday night,
particularly well inland. High pressure will build across the
Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and this will send a backdoor cold
front through our area on tuesday morning. This will begin a
transition to an onshore flow pattern with breezy conditions at
the beaches through Wednesday afternoon. This pattern will bring
an increase in low level moisture and a few coastal showers will
be possible beginning Tuesday night and continuing through
Thursday. The flow off the Atlantic will favor an increase in low
clouds, with skies becoming at least partly cloudy. Temps will
check in right around normal.


LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys expected at all TAF sites this morning as
stratus/fog develop and settles just above the surface towards
morning. Conds improve quickly after 12z with cold frontal passage
through the day and NW winds increasing to 12-15g20 knots at times.
VFR conds continue tonight with winds decreasing after sunset.


Light North winds to become NW and increase this afternoon and
evening behind the cold frontal passage to 20-25 knots and will
hoist SCA flags for all waters with a decreasing trend on Saturday
with nearshore flags ending in the morning and offshore flags ending
by the afternoon hours. General N/NW flow should remain below
headline levels Sun/Mon before next E/NE onshore surge begins Tue
and continues much of next week with SCA flags likely again.

Rip Currents: Still expect decent surf in the 3-5 ft range today but
development of offshore flow with the frontal passage should keep
rip current threat generally in the Moderate range today with surf
slowly subsiding later on in the weekend.



Transport winds will increase out of the northwest today behind a
cold front and this will result in elevated dispersions for
portions of the area this afternoon. Dry air spilling into the
region behind the front will set the stage for critically low RH
values for portions of the area over the weekend but at this time
ERC values look to be too moist, and sustained wind speeds will
be below 15 mph during the afternoon hours.



Will cancel Coastal Flood Advisory and replace with Coastal Flood
Statement for the St. Johns River Basin as still expect elevated
water levels during high tide today, but with offshore winds
developing expect tidal levels to remain below minor flood criteria
during the high tide cycle.


AMG  81  46  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  82  55  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  86  51  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  86  57  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  86  49  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  86  50  76  43 /   0   0   0   0


AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday
     for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
     Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.



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