Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 222104
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 PM PDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing clouds today, with light rain shower
activity gradually moving in from the northwest this evening on
into Sunday. Shower activity intensifies Monday through at least
Wednesday across northern and portions of central NV with periods
of light to moderate rain. Winds will also become breezy at times.
Cooler afternoon temperatures are expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. High clouds and slightly
above normal temperatures this afternoon with southwesterly flow
aloft. Weak trough energy moves in from the west later this
evening and overnight with light rain showers possible across
portions of northern NV. Models show some weak instability over
northern and east-central NV Sunday afternoon, however with
limited moisture the best chances for any isolated TS activity
look to be north and possibly east of the CWA into Sunday evening.
Stronger jet energy noses in over northern NV early Monday with
light to moderate rain showers developing. By Monday afternoon or
early evening expect showers to expand southeastward across most
of northern and central NV. Showers will linger across the region
through Tuesday as jet energy continues to move in from the west-
northwest. Expect an increase in winds over most of the cwa Sunday
through Tuesday, with some breezy conditions. At this time not
expecting winds to reach advisory levels.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. Active weather
is still expected in the long term with the models remaining in
decent agreement. The pattern should be of zonal flow from the
west northwest slowly giving way to a long wave trough and
northwest flow by Thursday to Friday. This is expected to be
followed by a long wave ridge building across the west coast on
Saturday.

Tuesday night through Thursday. Zonal west northwest flow will
dominate the mid part of the week creating an atmospheric river
that should impact the northern half of Nevada. This flow will
remain in place between a low in the Gulf of Alaska and a high
off the west coast. The moisture will cause showers for the
central to northern potions of the silver state. The valley should
receive rain with the possible exception of thursday morning when
a weak short wave bring a brief surge of cold air into the state.
The surge of cold air may lower the snow level enough that the
valley could receive a snow rain mix before transitioning back to
all rain by Thursday afternoon. There also appears to be enough
instability along the boundary of moist air and drier air that any
surges in the moist air may produce isolated thunderstorms during
the afternoon of Wednesday and thursday. Highs are expected to be
in the 40s to 50s with lows in the 20s to 30s.

Friday through Saturday. A long wave trough will develop over the
western half of conus shifting the flow from west northwest to
northwest across the Great basin. This should cut off the moisture
feed into Nevada leading to a gradual diminishing of showers
across the state. Nevada should gradually dry from the south
northwards during the end of the week. The silver state should
have dry weather by the time the long wave ridge builds across the
Great basin this Saturday. temperatures are expected to warm with
highs in the 50s to 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours.
southerly to southwesterly gusty winds will be present for KELY,
KWMC, and KTPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Some small creeks and streams are running high. The
lower stretch of the Humboldt River from Battle Mountain to the
Humboldt/Pershing County line is still experiencing flooding
issues. At Wildhorse Reservoir, water is being released and
flowing over the natural spillway. As a result, the Owyhee River
is showing a rise. Outdoor enthusiasts should watch out for and be
cautious around higher flows.

Here are the locations where flood warnings are currently in
effect:

Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Minor flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Comus, near Winnemucca: Moderate flooding
continues.

All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood
stage. Due to increased flow, River Statements have been issued
to provide information concerning the following sites:

Wildhorse Dam - at Wildhorse

Owyhee River - at Wildhorse

Owyhee River - near Mountain City

Mary`s River - near Deeth

Bruneau River - near Rowland


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

96/99/99



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