Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 201630
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
930 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA TODAY...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
ON MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS
AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECAST THROUGH 5 PM TO MATCH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. WIDESPREAD HEALTHY CONVECTION ALREADY SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NYE COUNTY, PER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LOW. INCREASED POP, SKY, QPF GRIDS SOUTH AND WEST OF ELKO, BASED
ON 12Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE. ALSO INCLUDED WIND/HAIL WORDING IN THE
GRIDS, PER SPC 5% WIND/HAIL OUTLOOK. NAM STRONGLY SUGGESTS HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT, AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS WARRANTED AND GOOD TO GO. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 309 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SILVER
STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH
OF THE STATE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMOKEY HAZE LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA LAST EVENING FROM EARLIER SMOKE PLUMES WHICH MOVED
OVER THE STATE FROM THE KING FIRE IN CALIFORNIA. RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS MEAN THAT SMOKE IS PROBABLY GOING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN MANY AREAS...SO WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY DENSE...DECIDED TO KEEP
AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE MAY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMOROW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND RAIN MAY
CLEANSE THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES AND WILL NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ENDING UP OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO BY THIS TIME
MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR IT TO TAP AND
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AS OF THIS
WRITING. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT...INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS IN THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW). PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO ISOLATED
SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN
AGAIN PERHAPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE WILL GATHER OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TODAY AND SPREAD NORTH WITH THE LOW
EARLY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY AT TIMES BE MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS...BUT
EVEN AT OUR INSOLATION MINIMUM TIME PERIODS THERE IS NOTABLE
INSTABILITY PROGGED JUST DUE TO THE LOW ITSELF AND ITS COLD AIR
ALOFT...SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.

LOW WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING MOISTURE
LEVELS...INSTABILITY AND FORCING. KEPT POPS VERY LOW MONDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDER NORTHEAST...AND HAVE NOTHING
MONDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WITH 80S WIDESPREAD. MILD LOWS TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DOMINATE
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER DAY SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. SOME
REBOUND EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW...SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 80. RCM

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. SHORT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FIRST THING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY
GIVES WAY TO PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH
BRINGS IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE EURO ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT IT`S PRETTY SPORADIC MOISTURE AND THE DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY
UP FOR GRABS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. MAJOR MODELS AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW BUT NOT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW SO THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE LONGER LONG RANGE. DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST EXCEPT TO MAKE SOME RATHER SMALL CHANGES IN THE DAY 7 AND
OUT RANGE DEWPOINTS. WINDS DO PICK UP ON THURSDAY AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4
MILES AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO SMOKE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AT KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANY LIGHTNING STARTS
SHOULD STAY VERY SMALL. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE STATE EXPECTED TO
BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH IT. PW`S EXCEEDING 1 INCH
IN PLACES COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AT TIMES AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING/STATIONARY CONVERGENCE ZONES WITH UPPER LOW...AND THE
SEVERAL EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER THIS
SUMMER...MAKE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH A NECESSITY AT THIS TIME. WHILE
ITS POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY FORM OF RAINFALL IS MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE...FEEL ITS BETTER TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS AND PUT THE WATCH
OUT. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE...EVEN A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH
FORMS IN A NARROW BAND COULD PRESENT FLOODING ISSUES IF IT LINGERS
LONG ENOUGH. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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