Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 201105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
305 AM PST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather will be around all week long. A
steady stream of Pacific moisture will spread across northern
Nevada through mid-week. Gusty winds will accompany a cold front
as it sags through the state Tuesday, and valley rain will be
transitioning to snow.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Radar shows an area of
showers exiting Elko County at this time. Generally less than 0.05
inches of rain fell across the county from this wave of moisture
and the models were not consistent on this area of showers. A new
batch of moisture is pummeling northern California this morning.
A Pacific low pressure trough will drop south along the west coast
then move inland over California and western Nevada. A very moist
flow is expected to impact northern Nevada. The models are in
very good agreement with the track of the trough.

Today through tonight. A positive tilt trough with central
circulation off the Washington/Oregon coast will provide a steady
stream of moisture to northern Nevada. Valley rain is expected as
snow levels will be above 7000 feet most of the period. The higher
mountains could see a foot of snow. High temperatures will range
from the 40s to around 50 degrees. Low temperatures will range
from the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Tuesday through Tuesday night. A cold front will sag south through
the LKN CWFA. Snow levels will be dropping and valley rain will be
transitioning to snow north to south. There could be a few inches
of snow in some spots however models are not quite consistent with
when the changeover will occur. Winds Tuesday afternoon will be
gusty all across northern and central nevada. Thus a Wind Advisory
is in effect for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday. Cold air will be in place and precipitation will be all
snow. Precipitation will be more showery but an inch or two of
snow will not be out of the question.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday. Models agree there
will be numerous weather systems moving across the Silver State.
At this time, it appears there will be at least four distinct
storms. Each system could provide the area with light to moderate
amounts of snow. Confidence is high for the active pattern, but
low for potential snow amounts. Daytime highs will be in the 30s
and nighttime lows in the teens/twenties. Some isolated areas
could dip lower. Due to the model differences, did not make a lot
of changes to the grids. The biggest changes were to the temp
grids. Temps were dropped by a couple degrees on average to
account for the active storm track and cold/cool
northerly/northwesterly flow.


.AVIATION...A light area of showers moved across northern NV this
morning, but did not cause any aviation issues. Heavier showers
will move into northern NV later this morning and persist through
the day. MVFR conditions will be possible. Under heavier showers,
IFR may briefly occur. KEKO/KWMC will see the greatest chance for
impacts, with KELY only seeing -shra. KTPH will see primarily
VCHS or some isolated -shra. Gusty southerly winds will also be a
problem. All sites with the exception of KEKO will see sustained
15-25 kt winds gusting around 30-35kts.


.HYDROLOGY...The lower stretch of the Humboldt River from Battle
Mountain through Winnemucca to the Humboldt-Pershing County line
is still in flood. The flood wave will move downstream overnight
and Battle Mountain in Lander County should remain in minor flood
status through about Tuesday afternoon.

Humboldt County will remain in flood status along the Humboldt
River for a week or more. Warm temperatures in the region is
causing some tributaries to the Humboldt, such as Martin Creek and
Rock Creek, to run high from more snowmelt. This new system
coming in will be largely rain in the lower elevations, wet snow
up high. The rain will enter the streams and the Humboldt channel
very quickly, but the snow will hold for a time, with temperatures
later in the week only rising into the 30s for highs with single
digits and teens for lows.


Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for Humboldt County-
Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko
County-White Pine County.



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