Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 211007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
307 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to rumble across
the eastern portion of White Pine county during the afternoon and
evening hours today and Saturday. Monsoon moisture will increase
and move north and west beginning Sunday for an increase in
thunderstorm coverage.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. Drier air is pushing into
east central NV as evidenced by dew points dropping from the
lower 60s at Ely last evening to the mid 40s currently. Models
still hold on to enough moisture and instability across eastern
White Pine county for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Moisture and instability will begin to push north and
west Saturday afternoon with isolated thunderstorms working their
way to southern Eureka county and into extreme southern Elko
county. Otherwise, temperatures will remain hot during the
daytime with highs in the upper 80s and 90s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday

The combination of a low pressure trough along the California
coast and the Four Corners high enhances monsoonal surge into
Nevada. The surge is spread over 3 days with mid level moisture
arriving initially. Storms on Sunday will be relatively high based
with most cells being dry or with limited rainfall. Monday will
be transitioning to an increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Tuesday appears to be wettest and coolest day as
the California short wave moves inland and draws northward the
deeper monsoonal moisture. Precipitable water approaches 1.25
inches, and another indicator is that specific humidity at 700 mb
surpasses 8 g/kg and brings the potential for flash flooding.

Short wave shears northeast with drier air following behind it.
The deeper monsoonal plume gets pushed east, but moisture
continues to circulate around the subtropical high core into
Nevada. The air mass remains moist and conditionally unstable
Wednesday and Thursday, although drier air will have advected
into northwest Nevada.


.AVIATION...Widespread hazy skies from California and Nevada fires
could limit slant visibility. Will forecast persistence with P6SM
at all TAF sites.

This afternoon, thunderstorms will stay east of KELY through the
early evening hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air moving into east central NV today will
limit thunderstorm activity to the eastern portion of fire weather
zone 455 this afternoon and evening where storms will be isolated
and mostly dry. On Saturday moisture will begin to spread a little
further north and west with Storms sneaking into the southeastern
portion of fire weather zone 454 and the extreme southern portion
of fire zone 470. Monsoon moisture will continue to expand north
and east on Sunday and continuing into early next week for a more
active weather pattern.




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