Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 030540
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
940 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AND
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WARMING AND
CONTINUED DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...TOOK DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AN HOUR EARLY AS SHOWERS ENDED. ADJUSTED MOST
WEATHER FORECAST ELEMENTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
THROUGH 4AM...ADDRESSING THE EXITING SYSTEM TO THE SE...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 322 PM /

SYNOPSIS...SNOW FROM A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY END
IN EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAS
BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
LOOKED GOOD AND LEFT IT IN PLACE AS IS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA STARTING THIS EVENING...WITH
THE BULK OF ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE CWA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT CERTAINLY SOME PLACES
COULD RECEIVE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT AS THIS LITTLE SHORTWAVE
ACTS ON A COLD BUT RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS. DEBATED ANOTHER
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT DECIDED TO GO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ROUTE FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT JUST
HOW AND WHEN IT AFFECTS TRAVEL ROUTES FOR RUSH HOUR. IT MIGHT BE
AN OPTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT CREW HOWEVER. IN GENERAL...SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY RUSH HOUR BUT THE DAMAGE MAY BE
DONE BY THEN...SO TRAVELERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS SECONDARY TROUGH IS GONE BY LATER TUESDAY AND CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SUNSHINE IN MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY
HOWEVER WITH MANY PLACES NOW EXPECTED TO FAIL TO REACH 40.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY IN EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME VERY CHILLY TEMPS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
AFFECT ON THE WEATHER. RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY SO TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 50S
EXPECTED IN MANY VALLEYS BY THEN. RCM

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THAT A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR DRY WEATHER. MODELS DO DIFFER ON
THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH. THE EC IS MUCH COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES
THAN THE GFS AS IT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE NV FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND PLACE THE HIGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE
GFS AND DGEX HAS THE HIGH OVER THE CWA FOR TEMPS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. HAVE LEAN CLOSER TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KWMC AND KTPH
TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING
AT KEKO AND KELY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER KEKO AT
ABOUT 10Z AND THEN MOVING INTO KELY AROUND 15Z TUESDAY...THEREFORE
EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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