Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
000
FXUS65 KLKN 181030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
330 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION AS LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM
ZERO TO MINUS 2 OVER CENTRAL NEVADA HIGHLAND AREAS. HEAVIEST
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA
UP TO AND INCLUDING THE RUBY MOUNTAIN RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON AS WARM MOIST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV WITH PLEASANT SPRING TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER EASTERN NV FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODELS DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GFS/GEM HOLDING ONTO SOME TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHEAST NV WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INHERITED
FORECAST FOLLOWED THE WETTER GFS/GEM AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AS
ECMWF IS THE ODD FELLOW OUT FOR NOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
SYNC THURSDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM SHOWING RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NRN CA SPREADING SOME
MOISTURE OVER NRN NV. INHERITED FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE
WETTER ECMWF AND WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE
AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY IMPACTING THE
KEKO/KELY TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/91/91





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.