Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 261118
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
318 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR RECORD WARMTH.
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TO CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL EXPAND INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEVADA RESULTS IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
CENTRAL NEVADA LOCATIONS SUCH AS TONOPAH BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING
HIGHWAY 50 AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...AND TO INTERSTATE 80
BY NOON. AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8000
FEET...LOWERING TO AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET ON TUESDAY. ALL
MODELS ARE SHOWING RESPECTABLE QPF AMOUNTS TO MOST VALLEYS...WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET CAN EXPECT 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY HIGHER ELEVATION
PASSES RECEIVING SNOW. SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
I80 CORRIDOR WILL FALL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON ROADWAYS ABOVE 7000 FEET IS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY TO
CENTRAL NV. THE ECMWF IS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE GFS AND WOULD SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NV, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WETTER ECMWF AND THE DRIER GFS, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NV AT THIS TIME. SNOW
LEVELS MOSTLY ABOVE 6500 FEET. BY SATURDAY BOTH MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR DRY AND
MILD WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/91/91



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