Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 050258
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
758 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH IN MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS EVENING...THEN EXPAND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. WARM AND DRY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SOME HIGHER PASSES AND
SUMMITS ARE STILL GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH. IN ADDITION...BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
A FEW ISOLATED SITES ARE STILL EXPERIENCING BORDERLINE
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CALM WITH CLIMBING RH LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 308 PM /

SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH IN MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS EVENING...THEN EXPAND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. WARM AND DRY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 8
PM. BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CLOUDS
INCREASE OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE TROUGH DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS NEVADA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED
THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AS IS PASSES OVER NEVADA.
AS SUCH BACKED OFF ON POPS AND QPF FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEXT BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND ALSO ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO REBOUND BACK
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

VERY QUIET WEATHER NEXT WEEK. NO CHANCE OF RAIN, FEW CLOUDS, LIGHT
WINDS, AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S IN SOME VALLEYS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA. BAT

AVIATION...STRONG GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET,
GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. ISOLATED -SHRA NW OF KWMC THROUGH
SUNSET, OTHERWISE CUMULUS AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MID
CLOUD WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
TROUGH ENTERS HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY 12Z SAT. STRONG TROUGH CROSSES
NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY, BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED, SO WILL
KEEP ANY MENTION OF -SHRA/-TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS. SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH RETURN TO KEKO/KELY AFTER 18Z SAT, LIGHTER NW WINDS AT
KWMC/KTPH. BAT

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WHITE PINE COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY
LATER THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF EASTERN NEVADA ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
VERY COLD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING LOWER
ELEVATION VALLEY AREAS. DRY AND MILD SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

94/99/94



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