Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 032104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL TURN MORE
WINDY AND UNSETTLED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED 500MB LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE EACH
DAY WITH THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  OVERALL...MOSTLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH WIND AND SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... 500MB RIDGE HAS SLID TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AS 500MB TROF IS NEARING THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN UTAH WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IN CA...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS SETUP IS LEADING TO WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AREA FROM CENTRAL NV STRETCHING NORTHWEST TOWARDS SE
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. COMBINED WITH SOME SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
PWATS NEAR .5 INCHES...MAYBE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. METSAT IS
ALREADY DISPLAYING SOME HEALTHY BUILDUPS OVER HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...AND GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY...THIS IS THE LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. REGARDLESS...CUMULUS BUILDINGS ARE EXPECT IN MOST OF
THE CWA GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP 70 IN MANY
LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...THE 500MB TROF MENTIONED ABOVE SPLITS
WITH THE SOUTHERN PIECE FORMING A CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW JUST OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST OF CA. BY WED AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL AND DEVELOP
A BAROCLINIC WAVE NEAR THE SIERRA MTNS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER
AND WINDIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE JET MAX
IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. STILL...WILL NEED TO MONITOR NW NYE COUNTY
AS THIS IS THE LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS.
WESTERN AREAS...AND MAYBE NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER...A ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLES AS THE PWAT VALUES ARE HIGHER
AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS SO DRY...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
T-STORM. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR
TWO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
GO ABOVE 70 FOR ALL AREAS WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TO AROUND 50.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW WILL HAVE
DUG SE TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA...WHICH PLACES MOST OF
THE CWA IN THE DIFFLUENT NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND GENERATE A NARROW AND WEAK
BAROCLINIC WAVE IN FAR WESTERN NV...IMPACTING EXTREME WESTERN
HUMBOLDT AS IT LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY FURTHER
EAST...HOWEVER PWATS WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW .5 INCHES ONCE YOU
MOVE EAST OF WMC....SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL FOR MOST OF
EASTERN NV ON THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL
FAIRLY DRY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON..BUT
THIS TIME THE STRONG ONES WILL BE IN EASTERN NV...ESPECIALLY IN
WHITE PINE COUNTY. OVERALL THE GFS AND EC ARE MORE ROBUST IN
CONVECTION AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM12 OR SREF. GIVEN SUPERIOR
RESOLUTION...LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM12 AND SREF ON POP AND QPF
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH BUT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS AGAIN LEAVES THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN AREAS AS THE TAIL END OF THE ABOVE
MENTION BAROCLINIC WAVE IMPACTS THIS AREA AS IF LIFTS NORTH. HIGH
TEMPS ARE EXPECT TO SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST...BUT SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NV AND NORTHWEST AZ TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. UPPER
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THRU SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY SHOWERS WILL HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET THROUGHOUT THE EVENT SO NO
ISSUES AS FAR AS SNOW IS CONCERNED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THRU SUNDAY TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS
CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE
RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR THESE AND
OTHER SMALL STREAMS MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS
THAT COULD MAKE THEM IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM PALISADE TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

85/91/91



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