Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 311655
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1255 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Today and tonight will be quiet as weak high pressure controls our
weather. A small 5H vort max will pass overhead this afternoon as a
scattered diurnal cu field develops, but warm mid-layer
temperatures, especially 600-750hPa, and modest precipitable water
(PWAT) values should allow us to keep mentionable PoPs out of the
forecast.

Will go with middle and upper 80s for highs today, similar to the
past couple of days. A 90 here and there isn`t entirely out of the
question, especially in urban areas, but afternoon cu plus a cirrus
canopy overhead may be able to slightly limit how high temps get.

By Wednesday afternoon a weak, broad surface trough will approach
from the northwest. PWATs will rise into the 1.5-1.7 inch range and
atmospheric cross-sections show increasingly deep moisture primarily
along and west of Interstate 65. So, a mention of showers and
thunderstorms will be in the forecast for western sections of
central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Mid-level lapse rates will be
weak and the flow aloft will be light. Progged DCAPE values are low
and WBZ values are high. While there will be enough instability for
thunderstorms it appears the risk of anything more than an isolated
strong storm is low.

Highs on Wednesday should again be in the middle and upper 80s,
tempered by increasing cloudiness in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Wednesday`s weak, broad front will slowly drift across the region
Wednesday night through Thursday night, accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

After a relative lull in the action Friday and Friday night, an
upper trof will dig southeastward from the Prairie Provinces into
the eastern United States Friday-Monday. At the surface low pressure
will cross the Great Lakes and swing its cold front through here on
Sunday. As a result, we can expect scattered showers and storms from
these features over the weekend, along with relatively cool
temperatures for June. We probably won`t get out of the 70s Sunday
and Monday, with lows Monday morning in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. The only
exception is some possible light fog at BWG tomorrow morning. Have
added in MVFR visibilities from 09-13Z tomorrow at BWG. Otherwise,
high clouds with a few cu will continue to move across the area.
Winds will be out of the east today, becoming light and variable
tonight. They will switch to southerly tomorrow and be around 5-7
knots.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........EER



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